Play Me or Fade Me Sports Betting Picks Podcast Blog

Underdog Fantasy entry for October 7, 2024

Mon, 07 Oct 2024 21:09:43 +0000

Entry yesterday was refunded. De'Von Achane left with an injury in the 1H, Jakobi Meyers went higher than his number.

New day today.

Monday Promos available:

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Patrick Mahomes Higher than 0.5 yards

My Monday Entry:

Patrick Mahomes Higher than 0.5 yards (tough to pass up)

I love Xavier Worthy, but he's on the same team. I love Tarik Skubal, but I'm posting late. Going with.....

Juwan Johnson Higher than 20.5 yards receiving

Little scary since he has gone over only once all season and has had multiple games this year without a target. Last week Johnson had his highest % of snaps and snap count with 50 snaps for 68% and still didn't hit this number. No Taysom Hill, Chiefs are 3^rd in the NFL blitzing 34% of the snaps which hopefully creates more TE checkdowns. Last year the long for Johnson went over this number 6 times and he finished going over this number in the final 4 games of the year. Chiefs have struggled against the TE this year, let's go for it.

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Underdog Fantasy entry for October 6, 2024

Sun, 06 Oct 2024 14:58:33 +0000

Darius Taylor (Minnesota) delivered a HUGE game on Saturday with 144 yards on the ground, unfortunately for me the struggle is real for Ollie Gordon as he finished with 50 yards leaving early with an injury in the 3rd.

New day today.

Sunday Promos available:

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Vulture Protection

My Sunday Entry:

Jakobi Meyers (Raiders) Higher than 4 receptions. No Davante Adams again. Meyers caught 5 of 10 targets last week against Cleveland. Raiders are without leading running back Zamir White, that could help increase passing attempts. Raiders relationship with Davante Adams is strained, little extra motivation to succeed without him, and little extra motivation to feed the replacement and pad the stats. I like that.

De'Von Achane (Dolphins) Higher than 11.5 rushing attempts. Even with the QB situation, this is a winnable game for the Dolphins. I don't how Achane doesn't get 12+ carries in any successful game script today.

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Underdog Fantasy entry for October 5, 2024

Sat, 05 Oct 2024 16:58:33 +0000

Friday was a nice day for me on Underdog. Both entries cashed.

Used promo on Alyssa Thomas Higher than 11.5 points with Kyle McCord Higher than 2.5 passing TDs

Used promo on Hajj-Malik Williams Higher than 0.0 passing yards with Kyle McCord Higher than 310.5 passing yards

Saturday Promos available:

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My Saturday Entry:

Darius Taylor (Minnesota) Higher than 78.5 rushing yards with Ollie Gordon (Oklahoma State) Higher than 82.5 rushing yards

Ollie Gordon - Enough is enough. Last week he had a season high 5.1 average per attempt, had his longest run of the season for 27 yards. Last year he averaged 6.3 yards per carry, had longs of 75, 71, 62, 53, 42. Both Kansas and Penn State averaged 5.3 yards per carry against West Virginia this year. I think Gordon has a breakout game this week.

Darius Taylor - Homer pick, maybe. Taylor averaged 5.8 yards per carry last year, 5.4 yards per carry this year. Michigan ran for 6.3 yards per carry against this USC D without a passing game. Never thought I would say this about a P.J. Fleck top running back, but Taylor needs more touches. Taylor had over 30 carries in half his games last year, this year he has yet to exceed 14. I have a strong feeling that changes tonight. I'm expecting 20+ rushing attempts for Taylor if Minnesota plans to pull off the upset over USC.

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Wed, 18 Sep 2024 13:36:56 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 190-145, 56.7%, up 9.8196 units

@KotaCapperKyle 56-59, 48.7%, down 9.88 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Wednesday

NRFI - Houston Astros at San Diego Padres (-132 on FanDuel)
- Framber Valdez for the Astros, 2.91 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 1.33 ERA over his last 7 starts. Dylan Cease for the Padres, 3.58 ERA, 1.09 WHIP. Let's get 6 without a run.

@KotaCapperKyle Play for Wednesday

- No play today

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Sun, 15 Sep 2024 14:11:54 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 189-144, 56.7%, up 9.9721 units

@KotaCapperKyle 56-59, 48.7%, down 9.88 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Sunday

NRFI - New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies (-118 on FanDuel)

Pair of lefties on the bump, David Peterson for the Mets with a 2.98 ERA, 2.30 ERA over his last 7 starts, and he has allowed just 1 run over 18 starts in the opening frame. Cristopher Sanchez for the Phillies, 3.33 ERA, 2.11 ERA at home, and a 2.25 ERA in the first. Let's get 6 without a run.

NRFI - Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Pirates (-120 on FanDuel)

Jared Jones for the Pirates, 3.82 ERA on the season, 2.77 ERA at home. Brady Singer for the Royals, 3.42 ERA on the season, excellent first inning numbers with a 1.55 ERA. I'll roll the dice on the NRFI with those numbers.

@KotaCapperKyle Play for Sunday

- No play today

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Sat, 14 Sep 2024 14:12:56 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 188-143, 56.7%, up 10.2824 units

@KotaCapperKyle 56-59, 48.7%, down 9.88 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Saturday

NRFI - Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves (-130 on DraftKings)

Hate betting on a Dodgers NRFI but this is Chris Sale on the bump for the Braves, 2.38 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 1.44 ERA over the last 7. Jack Flaherty for the Dodgers, 2.86 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 2.49 ERA on the road. Let's get 6 without a run.

NRFI - Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners (-145 on DraftKings)

Logan Gilbert goes for Seattle, 3.15 ERA, 0.88 WHIP on the season. Gilbert has a 2.35 ERA at home, and he's had a ton of lifetime success against Texas, Rangers are 29 for 160 against him, .181 BA. Max Scherzer returns for the Rangers, first start since July, 4.05 ERA on the road this year, last faced Seattle in 2022. Scherzer looked great in his last rehab start with 4 hitless innings and 8 strikeouts.

@KotaCapperKyle Play for Saturday

- No play today

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Thu, 12 Sep 2024 13:29:53 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 188-142, 56.9%, up 11.2824 units

@KotaCapperKyle 56-59, 48.7%, down 9.88 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Play for Thursday

NRFI - Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians (-115 on FanDuel)

Gavin Williams for Cleveland who didn't make it out of the first last out allowing 5 runs against the Dodgers on 2 hits and 3 walks. Start before that, 7 innings allowing 1 hit and 1 run against KC. The Rays are the 4^th lowest scoring team on the road, 29^th in OPS vs. righties. Tampa Bay counters with Ryan Pepiot, 2.17 ERA over his last 7 starts, Guardians rank 22^nd in OPS vs. righties. Let's get 6 without a run.

@KotaCapperKyle Play for Thursday

- No play today

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Wed, 11 Sep 2024 13:10:59 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 187-142, 56.8%, up 10.5417 units

@KotaCapperKyle 56-59, 48.7%, down 9.88 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Play for Sunday

NRFI - San Diego Padres at Seattle Mariners (-135 on DraftKings)

Both teams are now in the Top 10 for YRFI, not what I like to see. T-Mobile is still the most pitcher friendly park in baseball, Bryan Woo for Seattle has a 2.36 ERA, 2.00 ERA in the first, and a 1.50 ERA at home. Tough for me not to like those numbers. Michael King goes for San Diego, 3.10 ERA, 2.86 ERA on the road, 2.00 ERA in the first. I'll take good pitching over good hitting tonight. Let's get 6 without a run.

@KotaCapperKyle Play for Sunday

- No play today

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Sat, 07 Sep 2024 14:38:56 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 187-141, 57.0%, up 11.5417 units

@KotaCapperKyle 56-59, 48.7%, down 9.88 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Play for Saturday

NRFI - LA Angels at Texas Rangers (-104 on FanDuel)

Rookie Jack Leiter makes his 6^th career start for the Rangers, 11.78 ERA for the #2 pick in 2021. I think today is the day that he settles in. The first inning has been his best inning, allowing only 2 runs, Angels are the 3^rd best NRFI team. Tyler Anderson goes for the Angels, 3.55 ERA, 2.26 ERA on the road. I'm hoping that good enough to get me 6 without a run tonight.

@KotaCapperKyle Play for Saturday

- No play today

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Fri, 06 Sep 2024 13:16:24 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 186-141, 56.9%, up 10.801 units

@KotaCapperKyle 56-59, 48.7%, down 9.88 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Play for Friday

MLB NRFI - Seattle Mariners at St. Louis Cardinals (-135 on DraftKings)

Erick Fedde for the Cardinals, 3.43 ERA on the season, 2.00 ERA in the opening frame. Bryce Miller for the Mariners, 3.30 ERA on the season, 2.97 ERA over his last 7 starts. Cardinals are the 5^th best NRFI team. Let's get 6 without a run tonight.

@KotaCapperKyle Play for Friday

- No play today

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Thu, 05 Sep 2024 13:11:18 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 186-140, 57.0%, up 11.801 units

@KotaCapperKyle 56-59, 48.7%, down 9.88 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Play for Thursday

NRFI - Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants (-125 on FanDuel)

Blake Snell for the Giants, 1.61 ERA since the break, 2.25 ERA in the first inning. Merrill Kelly has been bad for the Diamondbacks since his return with a 6.75 ERA, but we know he has better given his 3.83 career ERA. Giants are a Top 10 NRFI team, let's get 6 without a run today.

@KotaCapperKyle Play for Thursday

- No play today

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Fri, 30 Aug 2024 12:24:38 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 185-140, 56.9%, up 10.8751 units

@KotaCapperKyle 56-59, 48.7%, down 9.88 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Play for Friday

NRFI - Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros (-108 on FanDuel)

Framber Valdez for Houston, 2.96 ERA at home, 2.40 ERA over the last 7, 2.74 in the first inning. Seth Lugo for the Royals, 3.19 ERA on the season, 3.01 ERA on the road, 2.33 ERA in the first inning. Numbers work for me.

@KotaCapperKyle Play for Friday

- No play today

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Thu, 29 Aug 2024 12:11:55 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 184-140, 56.8%, up 9.9136 units

@KotaCapperKyle 56-59, 48.7%, down 9.88 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Play for Thursday

- NRFI - Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros (-104 on FanDuel)

Brady Singer for the Royals, 1.73 ERA this year in the opening inning. Hunter Brown for the Astros, 2.14 ERA over his last 7 starts. Positivity only with this bet, not going to mention any of the other stats. Let's get 6 without a run.

@KotaCapperKyle Play for Thursday

- No play today

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Wed, 28 Aug 2024 12:00:56 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 184-139, 56.9%, up 10.9136 units

@KotaCapperKyle 56-59, 48.7%, down 9.88 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Play for Wednesday

NRFI - Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates (-115 on FanDuel)

Seems like a nice price with Paul Skenes on the bump for the Bucs, 2.16 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 2.12 ERA in the first inning. Cherry on top, Cubs are the 6^th best NRFI team in baseball. Kyle Hendricks goes for the Cubs, 6.33 ERA on the season, last 7 have been much better with a 4.30 ERA, and his first inning numbers are really good with a 1.50 ERA. Pittsburgh ranks 28^th in OPS vs. righties, 3^rd best NRFI team. Let's get 6 without a run.

@KotaCapperKyle Play for Wednesday

- No play today

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Tue, 27 Aug 2024 13:09:07 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 184-139, 56.9%, up 10.9136 units

@KotaCapperKyle 56-59, 48.7%, down 9.88 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Play for Tuesday

No play today

@KotaCapperKyle Play for Tuesday

- Rangers/White Sox NRFI (-120 on DraftKings)

Garrett Crochet is on the mound for the White Sox. He has been an unsung hero for the White Sox. His record may not show it at 6-9, but a lot of those losses are due to the White Sox just being bad. Crochet has a 3.63 ERA and has 180 strikeouts on the year, the fifth best in the MLB. Lifetime, Rangers are hitting .250 off of Crochet with only 2 runs scored in 20 ABs. Meanwhile, the Rangers are starting Andrew Heaney on the mound. He has also been very bad this year with a 4-13 record and a 4.04 ERA. However, it’s the White Sox he is facing off against. They have the second best NRFI % in baseball, hitting NRFIs at a 80.15% clip. They also are the worst team in baseball in terms of runs scored, only scoring 3.11 runs per game. I am pretty confident they can get me three outs. I just need Crochet to continue his great pitching, and then the White Sox to play like they usually do.

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Mon, 26 Aug 2024 13:01:58 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 183-139, 56.8%, up 10.0286 units

@KotaCapperKyle 56-59, 48.7%, down 9.88 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Play for Monday

NRFI - Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates (-113 on FanDuel)

Mitch Keller gets the call for Pittsburgh, after allowing 15 runs in his 2 previous starts Keller bounced back with 7 shutout innings last out at Texas. 3.76 ERA on the season, 2.58 ERA at home, 3.24 ERA in the first. I like my chances in the top half. Jameson Taillon goes for the Cubbies, 3.77 ERA on the season, 3 straight starts allowing 4 or more runs, 2.05 ERA in the first. The Pirates are the 3^rd best NRFI team, Cubs are the 7^th best NRFI team. Should be a good get right opportunity for Taillon. Let's get 6 without a run.

@KotaCapperKyle Play for Monday

- TBD

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Sun, 25 Aug 2024 13:17:20 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 182-139, 56.7%, up 9.1277 units

@KotaCapperKyle 56-59, 48.7%, down 9.88 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Play for Sunday

NRFI - Los Angeles Angels at Toronto Blue Jays (-111 on FanDuel)

Kevin Gausman has not been good at home, 5.88 ERA, but he does have a 3.42 ERA over his last 7 starts including 7 shutout innings against the Angels last week. Tyler Anderson goes for LA, 3.40 ERA on the season, 2.17 ERA on the road. Angels have the 4^th best NRFI %, Blue Jays have the 12^th best. Let's get 6 without a run north of the border.

@KotaCapperKyle Play for Sunday

- TBD

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Sat, 24 Aug 2024 13:39:06 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 182-138, 56.9%, up 10.1277 units

@KotaCapperKyle 56-59, 48.7%, down 9.88 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Play for Saturday

NRFI - San Francisco Giants at Seattle Mariners (-142 on FanDuel)

Seattle ranks 27^th in runs scored per game, San Francisco has the 6^th best NRFI % in baseball. George Kirby goes for Seattle, 3.40 ERA on the season, 2.74 ERA at home. Blake Snell goes for San Francisco, 1.14 ERA over his last 7 starts, 0.68 WHIP. Opponents are hitting just .133 against him since the break. This is a dream NRFI. Let's get 6 without a run.

@KotaCapperKyle Play for Saturday

- TBD

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Fri, 23 Aug 2024 13:10:21 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 181-138, 56.7%, up 9.2581 units

@KotaCapperKyle 56-59, 48.7%, down 9.88 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Play for Friday

NRFI - Texas Rangers at Cleveland Guardians (-115 on FanDuel)

I've hit 3 straight NRFI's again, I was flip flopping between this game and the Reds/Pirates. Hope both cash so I have no regrets. Texas ranks 24^th in OPS vs. righties, Cleveland ranks 21^st in OPS vs. righties. Tanner Bibee is on the bump for Cleveland, 3.33 ERA. Nathan Eovaldi for Texas, 3.76 ERA, disappointing 4.87 ERA on the road, really disappointing 6.60 ERA in August. Numbers are a little misleading, Eovaldi gave up only 1 run against Minnesota over 7 innings before giving up 3 in the 8th. I'll take my chances tonight. Let's get 6 without a run.

@KotaCapperKyle Play for Friday

- TBD

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Wed, 21 Aug 2024 13:05:21 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 180-138, 56.6%, up 8.3322 units

@KotaCapperKyle 56-59, 48.7%, down 9.88 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Play for Wednesday

NRFI Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationals (-108 on FanDuel)

The Rockies rank 28^th in scoring on the road, Nationals rank #1 in NRFI % this season. Mitchell Parker goes for Washington, 3.00 ERA at home. Most other splits are not good including his last start allowing 9 runs over 3 innings. Tanner Gordon is 0-4 with a 7.00 ERA for Colorado. Last out, he never made it out of the first at Arizona allowing 4 runs on 3 hits, 2 walks, and a hit batter. Not good. Not my normal NRFI, Giants/White Sox appears to be the best on the board but for some reason I got cold feet on that play and turned to a flawed matchup. I'm going for 3 straight NRFI wins, let's get 6 without a run with 2 pitchers that combined to give up 13 runs over 3.2 innings last out. Good luck to me.

@KotaCapperKyle Play for Wednesday

- TBD

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Mon, 19 Aug 2024 11:59:02 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 179-138, 56.4%, up 7.4989 units

@KotaCapperKyle 56-59, 48.7%, down 9.88 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Play for Monday

NRFI - Chicago White Sox at San Francisco Giants (-120 on FanDuel)

To steal the Lou Brown speech from the movie Major League, we won a game yesterday. If we win today, it's called "two in a row" and if we win again tomorrow, it's a called a winning streak. It has happened before. Time to make that second step, White Sox rank #2 in NRFI %, Giants rank #8. Kyle Harrison has a 3.64 ERA at home for the Giants, Jonathan Cannon has a 3.46 ERA over his last 7 for White Sox. Please give me my 6 outs without a run.

@KotaCapperKyle Play for Monday

- TBD

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Sun, 18 Aug 2024 13:49:17 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 178-138, 56.3%, up 6.6989 units

@KotaCapperKyle 56-59, 48.7%, down 9.88 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Play for Sunday

MLB NRFI - San Francisco Giants at Oakland Athletics (-125 on FanDuel)

I just can't seem to string anything together with these NRFI's, still up around 7 units for the year but after being up 22 units at one point it doesn't feel like it. A couple of my favorite lefties go today, Blake Snell for the Giants and JP Sears for the Athletics. Sears has a 2.91 ERA over his last 7 including 7 shutout innings at San Francisco allowing 3 hits to end July. Blake Snell goes for the Giants, 0.99 ERA over his last 7 starts, 0.62 WHIP. Snell has found his 2^nd half stuff so watch out. Both teams are Top 10 in NRFI %. Let's get 6 without a run.

@KotaCapperKyle Play for Sunday

- TBD

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Sat, 17 Aug 2024 11:59:02 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 178-137, 56.5%, up 7.6989 units

@KotaCapperKyle 56-59, 48.7%, down 9.88 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Play for Saturday

NRFI - Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago Cubs (-135 on DraftKings)

Both teams are Top 10 YTD in NRFI % so that's a good start. Both teams are Bottom 10 in scoring this year. I like that stat. Justin Steele goes for the Cubs, 3.16 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 2.37 ERA in the first inning. I feel good about the top half. Chris Bassitt is on the bump for Blue Jays, 4.30 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 7.12 ERA over his last 7 starts, 5.25 ERA in the 1st. Those numbers scare me, but other splits give me hope. Away ERA is better than his home ERA. Day ERA is better than his night ERA. Grass ERA is better than his turn ERA. Cubs are 10 for 47 against him, .213 BA. I'll roll the dice.

@KotaCapperKyle Play for Saturday

- TBD

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Fri, 16 Aug 2024 13:08:39 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 177-137, 56.4%, up 7.0537 units

@KotaCapperKyle 56-59, 48.7%, down 9.88 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Play for Friday

MLB NRFI - Seattle Mariners at Pittsburgh Pirates (-155 on DraftKings)

I would like this to be as easy as it looks on paper. Paul Skenes for Pittsburgh, 2.25 ERA, 2.40 ERA in the first inning. Logan Gilbert for Seattle, 2.91 ERA, 3.00 ERA in the first inning. The Pirates have the 3^rd highest NRFI %, Mariners rank 26^th in OPS vs. righties, Pirates rank 28^th in OPS vs. righties.

@KotaCapperKyle Play for Friday

- TBD

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Thu, 15 Aug 2024 11:59:02 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 177-136, 56.5%, up 8.0537 units

@KotaCapperKyle 56-59, 48.7%, down 9.88 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Play for Thursday

NRFI - Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers (-115 on FanDuel)

The 5^th & 7^th highest scoring teams in baseball, the Dodgers are the best YRFI team in baseball. The Dodgers rank 4^th in OPS vs. righties, Brewers rank 8th. I'm flirting with trouble to say the least. Jack Flaherty goes for the Dodgers, 2.97 ERA, 2.35 ERA on the road, 2.70 ERA in the first plus the Brewers are hitting only .216 against him lifetime. Tobias Myers is on the bump for the Brew Crew, 2.79 ERA, 2.38 ERA over his last 7. Don't look at his first inning numbers or you will be pacing early like me. Fingers crossed, let's get out of the first without a run.

@KotaCapperKyle Play for Thursday

- TBD

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Wed, 14 Aug 2024 11:59:02 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 176-136, 56.4%, up 7.2062 units

@KotaCapperKyle 56-59, 48.7%, down 9.88 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Play for Wednesday

NRFI - Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Angels (-118 on FanDuel)

One of the few positives from this bloodbath on the NRFI's is that prices are starting to normalize again. The Blue Jays rank 24^th in scoring this year, Angels rank 25th. Angels have the 4^th highest NRFI %, Blue Jays have the 10^th highest NRFI %. Tyler Anderson goes for the Halos, 2.99 ERA 1.15 WHIP. His splits aren't perfect, but the Blue Jays rank 24^th in OPS vs. lefties so I have hope. Jose Berrios goes for Toronto, 3.97 ERA, 1.21 WHIP on the season. Don't look at the last 7 or road splits, not good at all. Angels rank 26^th in OPS vs. righties so I like the metric. We need 6 outs without a run. Let's go for it. It was this or the Angels on the ML, let's see if I made the right decision.

@KotaCapperKyle Play for Wednesday

- TBD

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Tue, 13 Aug 2024 11:59:02 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 176-136, 56.4%, up 7.2062 units

@KotaCapperKyle 56-59, 48.7%, down 9.88 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Play for Tuesday

No play today (biggest lean: St. Loius & Cincinnati

@KotaCapperKyle Play for Tuesday

- TBD

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Mon, 12 Aug 2024 11:59:02 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 176-135, 56.6%, up 8.2062 units

@KotaCapperKyle 56-59, 48.7%, down 9.88 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Play for Monday

NRFI - Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays (-135 on DraftKings)

Both teams are tied for 8^th in YRFI % this season so that scares me. Taj Bradley goes for Tampa Bay, rocked last out allowing 9 hits, 5 runs over 4.2 innings at St. Louis. On the season, 3.07 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 2.18 ERA over his last 7 starts, 2.81 ERA in the 1st, and a 2.04 ERA at home. Framber Valdez goes for Houston, 3.46 ERA on the season, 3.05 ERA over his last 7 starts, and a 3.15 ERA in the 1st. That's enough for me, NRFI it is.

@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Monday

- TBD

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Sat, 10 Aug 2024 13:59:02 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 175-135, 56.4%, up 7.4655 units

@KotaCapperKyle 56-59, 48.7%, down 9.88 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Play for Sunday

NRFI - New York Mets at Seattle Mariners (-135 on DraftKings)

I refuse to give up. T-Mobile Park is the most pitcher friendly park in baseball. Luis Castillo goes for the Mariners, 3.48 ERA, 2.95 ERA at home, 2.63 ERA in the 1st, and the Mets are hitting a career .230 against him. Luis Severino goes for the Mets, 4.06 ERA, 5.68 ERA since the break, but he does have an excellent 1.23 ERA in the 1^st inning and the Mariners are a career .174 against him. I'm willing to win ugly, I'm willing to win on a big strike zone, I'm willing to win on luck. Just let me win.

@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Sunday

- TBD

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Sat, 10 Aug 2024 12:59:02 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 175-134, 56.6%, up 8.4655 units

@KotaCapperKyle 56-59, 48.7%, down 9.88 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Play for Saturday

NRFI - Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks (-105 on DraftKings)

No shock that NRFI is a 4-letter word. Within minutes of my NRFI starting, I'm saying plenty of 4-letter words to describe the outcome. Will it be a leadoff homer in the top-half or a 2-out homer in the bottom half to beat him tonight? Normally we rotate, we had the leadoff homer on Friday, I'll be expecting the 2-out in the bottom half tonight. Zac Gallen at home vs. Aaron Nola for the Phillies just so I have it on the record.

@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Saturday

- TBD

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Fri, 09 Aug 2024 11:32:41 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 175-133, 56.8%, up 9.4655 units

@KotaCapperKyle 56-59, 48.7%, down 9.88 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Play for Friday

NRFI - Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox (-120 on DraftKings)

The White Sox rank #2 in NRFI percentage, Cubs rank #7. Garrett Crochet goes for the White Sox, 3.19 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 2.60 ERA at home, 2.74 ERA in the 1st. I'll take those numbers. Jameson Taillon for the Cubbies, 3.25 ERA, 2.37 ERA in the 1st. I'm going to listen to what Hulk Hogan told me so many years ago, I'm going to eat my vitamins and say my prayers tonight. I want this NRFI. Let's get 6 outs without a run.

@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Friday

- TBD

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Wed, 07 Aug 2024 11:32:41 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 175-133, 56.8%, up 9.4655 units

@KotaCapperKyle 56-57, 49.6%, down 7.88 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Wednesday

@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Wednesday (dropped on the podcast)

Rays/Cardinals NRFI (-120)

- We got a very good pitching matchup in this game. Taj Bradley goes for the Rays with a 6-5 record and a 2.71 ERA. Only one Cardinals batter has gone against Bradley and was unable to get a hit against him, so this is a new pitcher for the Cardinals batters. I always say that it takes time for teams to adjust to new hitters, especially the first time around. It also will not help make me want to go against the Cardinals when they are one of the best NRFI teams in the league, hitting NRFIs at a 77% clip. Meanwhile the Cardinals are starting Erick Fedde with a 7-5 record and a 3.34 ERA. Lifetime, Rays batters are hitting a mere 0.91 off of Fedde lifetime with only one run scored in 22 ABs. I like those odds.

Red Sox/Royals NRFI (-110)

- We got a solid pitching matchup in this one. Kutter Crawford is on the bump for the Red Sox with a 7-8 record and a 3.81 ERA. Meanwhile, the Royals start Cole Ragans with an 8-7 record and a 3.36 ERA. However, the biggest thing that drew me to this NRFI was these pitchers’ success against these teams lifetime. Lifetime, the Royals are hitting just .200 off Crawford lifetime with 5 runs in 50 ABs. Good sign for Crawford. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are hitting a mere .152 off of Ragans lifetime with no runs in 33 ABs.

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Tue, 06 Aug 2024 11:32:41 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 175-131, 57.2%, up 11.4655 units

@KotaCapperKyle 56-57, 49.6%, down 7.88 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Tuesday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - San Francisco Giants at Washington Nationals (-102 on FanDuel)

The Nationals are the #1 ranked NRFI in baseball, Giants are #6. MacKenzie Gore for the Nationals, 4.54 ERA on the season, 7.84 ERA over his last 7 starts, 2.05 ERA in the opening frame. Giants rank 4^th in OPS vs. lefties so nothing will be easy. Hayden Birdsong goes for the Giants, 2.97 ERA over 6 starts, ZERO runs allowed in the first. He had a 2.51 ERA this year in the minors over 57.1 innings, I'll trust him. Let's get 6 without a run.

NRFI - Minnesota Twins at Chicago Cubs (-200 on DraftKings)

This is a first. YRFI is +145, NRFI is -200, total is 5.5 for the game given the projected winds. It's Shota Imanaga vs. Pablo Lopez. I can't believe that I'm touching this game given the price, but let's get 6 without a run.

@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Tuesday

- TBD

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Mon, 05 Aug 2024 11:32:41 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 174-131, 57.0%, up 10.6842 units

@KotaCapperKyle 56-57, 49.6%, down 7.88 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Play for Monday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angels Dodgers (-128 on FanDuel)

4^th and 8^th highest scoring teams in baseball collide tonight. Teams rank 4^th and 12^th in OPS % vs. righties. Teams are the 2^nd and 3^rd best YRFI teams in baseball. It's Tyler Glasnow for the Dodgers, 3.50 ERA. It's Aaron Nola for the Phillies, 3.43 ERA. The Dodgers are a career .221 against Nola, even Ohtani is 0 for 3. The Phillies are a career .176 against Glasnow with the top of the ordering struggling against him. I need 6 outs, not 5 without a run. Let's get this one home.

@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Monday

- TBD

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Sun, 04 Aug 2024 11:32:41 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 174-130, 57.2%, up 11.6842 units

@KotaCapperKyle 56-57, 49.6%, down 7.88 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Play for Sunday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates (-110)

It's Paul Skenes for the Pirates, no introduction required at this point. He's good. 1.90 ERA, 0.90 WHIP. I'm good in the top half. Ryne Nelson for the Diamondbacks, 4.53 ERA, 3.51 ERA over his last 7 starts, 3.83 ERA on the road, 0.48 ERA in the first inning. 18 starts, 1 run allowed in the 1st. I love that number. Pirates rank 29^th in OPS vs. righties, rank 3^rd in NRFI %. Sign me up.

@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Sunday

- TBD

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Sat, 03 Aug 2024 11:32:41 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 173-130, 57.1%, up 10.915 units

@KotaCapperKyle 56-57, 49.6%, down 7.88 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Play for Saturday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins (-130)

Bailey Ober for Minnesota with a 3.76 ERA. Garrett Crochet for Chicago with a 3.23 ERA. That's it.

@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Saturday

- TBD

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Fri, 02 Aug 2024 11:32:41 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 172-128, 57.3%, up 12.1337 units

@KotaCapperKyle 56-57, 49.6%, down 7.88 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Thursday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees (+100)

I'm thinking if I put the Yankees back on my card, things will return to normal. I need to reverse my NRFI curse, the last 10 days have been miserable. Marcus Stroman for the Yankees, 3.64 ERA, not good over the last 7 with a 5.56 ERA, home numbers aren't the best with a 4.47 ERA, same is true with his 4.71 ERA in the first inning. Blue Jays are the 7^th best NRFI team. The Blue Jays are a career .245 off Stroman without much success at the top of the lineup. Kevin Gausman for the Blue Jays, 4.44 ERA, 5.04 ERA over his last 7 starts, excellent road numbers with a 2.34 ERA. Judge has been an issue for Gausman, 5 homers, overall, the Yankees are hitting .239 over 201 ABs against him. I'll take my chances to get these NRFI's take on track.

NRFI - St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs (-128)

Afternoon baseball at Wrigley, I need action. The Cardinals are the 4^th best NRFI team, Cubs are the 6^th best. Javier Assad gets the call for Chicago, 3.23 ERA, 5.17 ERA over the last 7, 2.20 ERA at Wrigley. Erick Fedde makes his Cardinals debut, 3.11 ERA, 3.12 ERA over the last 7, 1.71 ERA in the first inning. Let's get 6 without a run.

NRFI - Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers (-136)

Tarik Skubal for the Tigers, 2.35 ERA, 0.92 WHIP. 2.66 ERA over the last 7 starts, 1.95 ERA at home, 2.14 ERA in the first. Cole Ragans for the Royals, 3.37 ERA, 3.83 ERA over the last 7, 2.83 ERA on the road, 2.45 ERA in the first inning. This should be a made to order NRFI. Fingers crossed.

@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Friday

- TBD

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Wed, 31 Jul 2024 11:32:41 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 170-124, 57.8%, up 14.6091 units

@KotaCapperKyle 54-57, 48.6%, down 9.88 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Wednesday (dropped in the newsletter)

NRFI - Miami Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays (-120 on FanDuel)

Taj Bradley for the Rays, 2.43 ERA, 1.01 WHIP. Check, I'm good with the first 3 outs. Roddery Munoz for the Marlins, 5.61 ERA, 6.37 ERA over his last 7 starts, 4.91 ERA on the road. Nothing screams NRFI, but my gut says that we have a slow scoring start today in St. Pete.

NRFI - Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers (-146 on FanDuel)

Chris Sale for the Braves, I'm good with that. Freddy Peralta for the Brewers, 3.94 ERA, 3.05 ERA over his last 7, 6.43 ERA in the 1^st inning. Peralta has absolutely killed me. Today he cashes. NRFI it is.

NRFI - Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox (-113 on FanDuel)

Drew Thorpe for the White Sox, 4.81 ERA in the show so far, 1.35 ERA over 60 innings in the minors this year. He has upside so I'll trust him to get me the first 3. Brady Singer for the Royals, 2.82 ERA, 1.18 WHIP. Give me the NRFI.

NRFI - Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks (-125 on DraftKings)

Zac Gallen at home for Arizona, check. MacKenzie Gore for the Nationals, 4.51 ERA, 7.63 ERA over his last 7, but he has a nice 2.14 ERA in the first inning this year. Crazy series, I expect a normal game today.

NRFI - LA Dodgers at San Diego Padres (-138 on FanDuel)

I'm going with @KotaCapperKyle on this one. My gut says the Padres hit Kershaw today, my gut says Cease will have a regression game today. My wife says that I'm wrong most of the time. Let's go NRFI.

@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Wednesday (dropped on the podcast)

Dodgers/Padres NRFI (-125 on FanDuel)

I’ll always say that when I bet NRFIs, it is strictly due to better pitching over better hitting. This one really holds true in this game. What a great pitching matchup we have in this one. It’s Clayton Kershaw day for those who celebrate. Kershaw made his first start of the season last week where he gave up two runs in four innings pitched with six strikeouts. Not a bad showing for your first appearance after surgery. Lifetime, Padres batters are hitting .259 off of Kershaw in 158 ABs. Meanwhile the Padres are starting Dylan Cease. Cease has been solid this season with a 10-8 record, a 3.50 ERA, and is leading the league with 168 strikeouts. Lifetime, Dodgers batters are hitting .208 off of Cease in 72 ABs. With two solid pitchers going at it and success being shown against them lifetime, that has me feeling a NRFI.

Rangers/Cardinals NRFI (-110 on DraftKings)

This game is going to be interesting, as we have a matchup of battle of old vs. battle of new. Andrew Heeney is getting the call for the Rangers, and he has struggled this season with a 4-10 record and a 3.77 ERA. He has been very solid against the Cardinals lifetime, allowing them to bat a mere .188 with no runs allowed in 32 ABs. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are starting Michael McGreevy. If you’re sitting here and thinking, I have not heard that name before, that would be because he is making his MLB debut. In the minors he has a 5-7 record with a 4.45 ERA. Not the best of numbers, but every year he is improving. I have noticed that teams will rally for players making their MLB debut, and I expect the Cardinals to do the same, especially in the first inning.

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Tue, 30 Jul 2024 11:32:41 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 169-123, 57.9%, up 14.7 units

@KotaCapperKyle 54-57, 48.6%, down 9.88 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Tuesday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox (+100 on FanDuel)

I like the storyline tonight. The Dodgers gave up on James Paxton, he returns to Boston to face the team that he spent most of his career with. Luis Castillo gets the call for Seattle, 3.38 ERA, 2.86 ERA in the first inning. NRFI it is.

NRFI - Oakland Athletics at San Francisco Giants (-110 on DraftKings)

Robbie Ray was once one of my favorite pitchers, career 3.96 ERA, 2021 Cy Young winner. Tossed 5 no hit innings against the Dodgers in his season debut last out. JP Sears for Oakland, Giants are 3^rd best in OPS vs. lefties, nothing supports this play other than his 2.96 ERA at night and my big old gut. I'm going NRFI.

@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Monday

TBD

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Mon, 29 Jul 2024 11:32:41 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 168-122, 57.9%, up 14.9308 units

@KotaCapperKyle 54-57, 48.6%, down 9.88 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Monday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers (-145)

Jack Flaherty for the Tigers, 2.95 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 2.08 ERA over his last 7 starts including 6 shutout innings last out against the Guardians. Cleveland is hitting a career .210 against Flaherty over 81 AB's, Guardians rank 20^th in OPS vs. righties this year. Tanner Bibee gets the call for the Guardians, 3.50 ERA, 2.68 ERA over his last 7 starts including a 5-inning effort last out allowing 1 run against Detroit. Tigers rank 23^rd in OPS vs. righties.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Houston Astros NRFI (-130 on DraftKings)

Jake Bloss makes his 4th start of the season for the Astros, 6.94 ERA, 1.63 WHIP after facing Oakland, Miami, and Baltimore. Paul Skenes goes for Pittsburgh. Skenes 0.94 WHIP in the minors, Bloss 0.94 WHIP in the minors. Skenes 1.85 ERA in the minors, Bloss had a 1.64 ERA this year over 66 innings. Pittsburgh ranks 29th in OPS vs. righties, Houston ranks 7th. I struggled with how to bet on this game. I wanted to bet the Pirates First 5 Team Total to the under, but 1.5 is reserved for elite pitchers and not pitchers with a 6.94 ERA. Betting the Astros under might be the play, not a fan of the price. Pirates appear overpriced, if I want to bet the Astros I might as well bet the under since I'm not going to base my handicap on Skenes getting hit hard. I'm going to break a rule and double up on this thing, NRFI and First 5 under.

@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Monday

TBD

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Sun, 28 Jul 2024 11:32:41 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 168-119, 58.5%, up 17.9308 units

@KotaCapperKyle 54-57, 48.6%, down 9.88 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Sunday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - Texas Rangers at Toronto Blue Jays (-108 on FanDuel)

Jose Berrios for the Blue Jays, 3.18 ERA at home, 3.00 ERA in the first. He's given up 3 or more in 7 of 8 starts, last 2 have lasted less than 5. He walked 6 last out, he's given up a league leading 22 dingers this season, but he expects to flush it and turn the page. I expect to see much better today. Jon Gray will toe the rubber for the Rangers, up and down season. Great starts, terrible starts. Last 7 ERA is not good with a 6.82, first inning ERA isn't good with a 5.82. Last out, 7.2 innings allowing 1 run. I just need 6 without a run, give me the NRFI.

NRFI - Chicago Cubs at Kansas City Royals (-105 on DraftKings)

Lugo & Imanaga failed me yesterday, back with Ragans & Assad today. Cole Ragans needs to get me the first 3, 3.23 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 2.57 ERA in the 1st, Cubs rank 23^rd in OPS vs. lefties. Javier Assad gets the assignment today for the Cubs, 3.15 ERA, 4.99 ERA over his last 7 starts, 2.50 ERA in the first inning, 1.98 ERA in day games. Royals rank 13^th in OPS vs. righties. I'll try it again, NRFI it is.

NRFI - Seattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox (-130 on DraftKings)

Garrett Crochet for the White Sox, 3.07 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 2.52 ERA over the last 7 games, 2.31 ERA at home, 2.14 ERA in the first inning. I'm good with those numbers. Bryce Miller for the Mariners, 3.41 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 2.68 ERA over his last 7 starts. Road and first inning splits concern me, but these are the 2024 Chicago White Sox. I'll never apologize for betting on them not to score.

@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Sunday

TBD

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Sat, 27 Jul 2024 11:32:41 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 167-117, 58.8%, up 19.1308 units

@KotaCapperKyle 54-57, 48.6%, down 9.88 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Saturday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers (-150)

Tarik Skubal for the Tigers, 2.34 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 1.87 ERA at home 1.35 ERA in the first. Not passing up those numbers. Joe Ryan for the Twins, 3.65 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 3.28 ERA on the road. Detroit sticks are a career 11 for 55 against Ryan, .200 BA. This one is screaming NRFI, let's do it.

NRFI - Chicago Cubs at Kansas City Royals (-106)

Seth Lugo for the Royals, 2.38 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 2.42 ERA over the last 7 starts, 2.24 ERA at home, 1.29 ERA in the first. Those are some really good numbers. Cubs rank 23^rd in OPS vs. righties so I like my odds in the top half. Shota Imanaga for the Cubbies, 2.86 ERA, 2.51 ERA on the road, 2.50 ERA in the first inning. Royals rank 19^th in OPS vs. lefties, that's good enough for me.

NRFI - Seattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox (-125)

Erick Fedde for the White Sox, 2.98 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 2.49 ERA over his last 7 starts, 1.47 ERA at home, 1.80 ERA in the first. Seattle bats exploded on Friday; I don't expect to see that again tonight provided Fedde doesn't get traded before the game. Bryan Woo for the Mariners, 2.54 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 2.70 ERA in the first inning. Against these White Sox bats, that's more than enough for me. Let's get 6 outs.

@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Saturday

TBD

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Fri, 26 Jul 2024 11:32:41 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 166-114, 59.3%, up 21.2458 units

@KotaCapperKyle 54-57, 48.6%, down 9.88 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Friday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - Cleveland Guardians at Philadelphia Phillies (-115)

This one will be stressful with the Phillies ranking #2 in YRFI and #1 in runs scored per game at home. Ben Lively goes for the Guardians, 17 starts allowing just 1 run in the 1st. Cristopher Sanchez for the Phillies, 2.97 ERA on the season, 1.50 ERA at home, 1.42 ERA in the 1st. Numbers support the risk, NRFI it is.

NRFI - Cincinnati Reds at Tampa Bay Rays (-113)

Shane Baz for the Rays, 4^th start of the season. 3 starts, 0 runs allowed in the first. Struggled with his control last out walking 5 Yankees over 3.1 innings, I'm going to ignore that for once since I like his upside. Nick Lodolo for the Reds, 3.51 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 2.84 ERA on the road. Let's get 6 without a run.

NRFI - Seattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox (-140)

Teams rank 28^th and 30^th in scoring. White Sox rank #2 in NRFI %, Seattle is banged up. Add in the fact that I have a 3.20 ERA and a 3.03 ERA on the bump, I'm going NRFI all day. George Kirby for Seattle, he has a 0.98 WHIP on the season. Drew Thorpe for Chicago, he has a 1.01 WHIP on the season. Sign me up!

NRFI - Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals (-113)

Sonny Gray for the Cardinals, 3.54 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 2.14 ERA at home. Hasn't been the best of late with a 4.00 ERA over his last 7 starts, Nationals rank 20^th in OPS vs. righties, have the highest NRFI %, and were no hit yesterday when I needed runs from them. MacKenzie Gore for the Nationals, 4.20 ERA, 3.86 ERA on the road, 2.25 ERA in the first inning. Ugly 5.79 ERA over his last 7 starts, but the Cardinals rank 29^th in OPS vs. lefties. NRFI it is.

@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Friday

TBD

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Thu, 25 Jul 2024 11:32:41 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 165-114, 59.1%, up 20.5212 units

@KotaCapperKyle 54-57, 48.6%, down 9.88 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Play for Thursday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI: Atlanta Braves at New York Mets (-138 on FanDuel)

Luis Severino has a 2.82 ERA at home, 1.42 ERA in the first inning. I like those numbers. Chris Sale has a 2.70 ERA on the season, 0.95 WHIP, 2.68 ERA on the road. I like those numbers. NRFI it is.

@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Thursday

TBD

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Wed, 24 Jul 2024 11:32:41 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 165-113, 59.3%, up 21.5212 units

@KotaCapperKyle 54-55, 49.5%, down 7.53 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Play for Wednesday (dropped in the newsletter)

NRFI - Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics (-115 on FanDuel)

I can't deny, I'm a JP Sears guy. 4.49 ERA, 1.28 WHIP on the season. Excellent numbers in July, 3-0 record, 1.65 ERA, 1.10 WHIP. 2 starts against Houston this year, 11 innings allowing 2 runs. Hunter Brown for Houston, 4.14 ERA, 1.36 WHIP on the season. 2.09 ERA over his last 7 starts, he's actually given up ZERO runs in 5 of his last 8 starts. NRFI it is.

@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Wednesday (dropped in the newsletter and podcast)

Padres/Nationals NRFI (-105)

If you’ve been a smart NRFI bettor this season, you will likely have bet on the Washington Nationals in your NRFI bets. They are the best team in baseball at hitting a NRFI at an 84% clip. Also the good news for us is that the Nationals are starting a rookie pitcher in Mitchell Parker that only one batter has seen. Parker has had a respectable rookie season with a 5-5 record and a 3.90 ERA. Meanwhile the Padres are starting Matt Waldron, and he has struggled this season with a 5-9 record and a 3.59 ERA. However, Nationals batters are only batting .227 off of him lifetime.

Pick: Tigers/Guardians NRFI (-130 on FanDuel)

I really like the pitching matchup in this game. Jack Flaherty for the Tigers and Tanner Bibee for the Guardians both have a win-loss record above .500 and ERAs below 4.00. They are solid against their opposing teams lifetime. The full game over was tempting for me, but I liked the NRFI play just a little bit more since these pitchers both start games off strong.

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Tue, 23 Jul 2024 11:32:41 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 164-112, 59.4%, up 21.6516 units

@KotaCapperKyle 54-55, 49.5%, down 7.53 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Tuesday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - Philadelphia Phillies at Minnesota Twins (-115)

Zack Wheeler for the Phillies, 2.70 ERA, 0.99 WHIP. 3.35 ERA over the last 7 starts, 4.17 ERA on the road, Twins rank 7^th in OPS vs. righties, and Wheeler will be making his first start since July 9^th because of back issues. With that said, tough not to like his numbers in the first, 19 starts allowing just 2 runs. Twins counter with Simeon Woods Richardson, 3.51 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 4.06 ERA over the last 7, 3.58 ERA at home, and a 2.25 ERA in the opening frame. Phillies rank 5^th in OPS vs. righties. I'm going to close my eyes and hope for 6 without a run tonight at Target Field.

NRFI - Chicago White Sox at Texas Rangers (-142)

- Jon Gray for Texas, 3.96 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 8.00 ERA over the last 7 starts, 3.78 ERA at home, and an ugly 6.19 ERA in the first. He gave up 9 against the Mets, gave up 8 against the Orioles. He can get rocked, but he also has also has 11 starts this year allowing 2 or fewer runs. The White Sox are 8 for 48 against him, .167 BA and the White Sox are still the 2^nd best NRFI team in baseball. That's enough for me. On the flip side, Garrett Crochet for the White Sox. 3.02 ERA, 0.95 WHIP on the season, 2.15 ERA over his last 7, 20 starts allowing just 3 runs in the first inning. Texas ranks 19^th in OPS vs. lefties, NRFI it is.

@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Tuesday

TBD

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Mon, 22 Jul 2024 11:32:41 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 164-111, 59.6%, up 22.6516 units

@KotaCapperKyle 54-55, 49.5%, down 7.53 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Monday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves (-135)

Reynaldo Lopez for the Braves, 1.88 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 2.11 ERA over the last 7 starts, 1.24 ERA at home, 17 starts allowing ZERO runs in the 1st. Hunter Greene for Cincinnati, 3.34 ERA on the season, 1.11 WHIP. 3.18 ERA over his last 7 starts, 2.53 ERA on the road, 2.84 ERA in the opening frame. Braves rank 18^th in OPS vs. righties. Let's get 6 without a run tonight.

@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Monday

TBD

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Sun, 21 Jul 2024 11:32:41 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 159-111, 58.9%, up 18.267 units

@KotaCapperKyle 54-55, 49.5%, down 7.53 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Sunday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals (+100)

Burned me yesterday, back for more today. Andrew Abbott for the Reds, 3.39 ERA, 3.38 ERA over the last 7 starts, 3.26 ERA on the road. Washington ranks 28^th in OPS vs. lefties and have the highest NRFI % in baseball. Jake Irvin gets the call for Washington, 3.49 ERA, 3.15 ERA in the opening inning. He's been hit hard in back-to-back starts allowing 6 runs to both the Mets & Brewers, I expect a bounce back at home against the 18^th best team in OPS vs. righties.

NRFI - San Diego Padres at Cleveland Guardians (-113)

Pair of righties on the bump today. Michael King for San Diego, 3.41 ERA, 2.61 ERA over his last 7 starts, 2.74 ERA on the road, 0.95 ERA in the 1^st inning. Ben Lively for the Guardians, 3.58 ERA, 2.55 ERA at home, 0.56 ERA in the 1^st inning. Both teams can hit, but I can't pass up a pair of sub-1 ERA's in the first. NRFI it is.

NRFI - Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals (-113)

Seth Lugo goes for the Kansas City, struggled last out allowing 5 runs over 5 at Boston. 2.48 ERA on the season, 2.44 ERA at home, 1.35 ERA in the first inning. Drew Thorpe gets the call for Chicago, 3.58 ERA over 6 career starts. 1.35 ERA in the minors this year over 60 innings. High upside for Thorpe, I'll take my chances tonight.

NRFI - Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago Cubs (-128)

Shota Imanaga for the Cubbies, 2.97 ERA, 3.40 ERA at Wrigley, 2.65 ERA in the opening frame. Diamondbacks rank 4^th in OPS vs. lefties so nothing will be easy today. Brandon Praadt is on the bump for the D-Backs, 3.97 ERA, 3.35 ERA over his last 7 starts, 3.79 ERA in the first. The Cubs rank 19^th in OPS vs. righties, let's get 6 without a run at Wrigley.

NRFI - Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners (-120)

Back in Seattle for yet another NRFI. Ronel Blanco for the Astros, 2.56 ERA, 0.97 WHIP. 2.23 ERA over the last 7 starts, 2.45 ERA on the road. Mariners rank 27^th in OPS vs. righties. Bryan Woo for Seattle, 2.45 ERA, 0.89 WHIP on the season. 2.88 ERA over the last 7 starts, struggled last out in his first start back allowing 4 over 3.1 at the Angels. Home ERA of 0.57. Pair of sub-1 WHIP's, nothing but NRFI for me.

@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Sunday

TBD

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Sat, 20 Jul 2024 10:32:41 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 157-110, 58.8%, up 17.7806 units

@KotaCapperKyle 54-55, 49.5%, down 7.53 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Saturday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays (-122)

Tough for me not to continue with the trend that has worked all season. Reese Olson goes for Detroit, 18 starts, ZERO runs allowed in the 1st. All the splits even line up, road ERA is better than his home ERA. Day ERA is better than his night ERA. Yusei Kikuchi goes for Toronto, 4.42 ERA, 6.42 ERA over his last 7 starts. Not great numbers, but Detroit ranks 24^th in OPS vs. lefties so that might help. Let's get 6 without a run.

NRFI - Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals (-118)

Pair of good young lefties on the bump today, Nick Lodolo for the Reds vs. MacKenzie Gore for the Nationals. Gore has a 4.01 ERA on the season, had an excellent April and May, but has struggled since. First inning numbers are excellent with a 1.42 ERA and the Reds rank 19^th in OPS vs. lefties and are mid-pack in NRFI % this season. Nick Lodolo has a 3.33 ERA for the Reds, 2.27 ERA on the road. Not the best numbers on the opening frame with a 6.43 ERA this year, but the Nationals rank 28^th in OPS vs. lefties and have the highest NRFI % in baseball. Let's go for it, NRFI it is.

NRFI - Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners (-150)

George Kirby for Seattle, 3.29 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 2.03 ERA over his last 7 starts. Astros sticks are a lifetime 18 for 95 against him, .189 BA. Framber Valdez for the Astros, 3.66 ERA on the year, 3.30 ERA over his last 7 starts. Seattle ranks 23^rd in OPS vs. lefties. I'll give it a chance.

@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Saturday

TBD

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Fri, 19 Jul 2024 11:32:41 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 155-109, 58.7%, up 17.2707 units

@KotaCapperKyle 54-55, 49.5%, down 7.53 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Friday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago Cubs (-130)

Afternoon baseball at Wrigley, I want action. Ryne Nelson goes for the Diamondbacks, 3.83 ERA on the road, 0.57 ERA in the first inning. I like that number. The Cubs send out Justin Steele, 2.71 ERA, 0.95 WHIP on the season. 1.65 ERA over his last 7 starts, 1.29 in the first inning. Arizona is tough on lefties, but I'm going NRFI to start the day.

NRFI - Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays (-135)

Chris Bassitt for the Blue Jays, 3.52 ERA on the season, 2.57 ERA over his last 7 starts. Jack Flaherty for the Tigers, 3.13 ERA, 0.98 WHIP on the season, 2.81 ERA on the road and a 2.23 ERA over his last 7 starts. Blue Jays have the 2^nd highest NRFI %, Detroit ranks 21^st in OPS vs. righties. Let's get 6 without a run.

NRFI - Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers (-140)

Pair of sub-3 ERA's, I can't pass it up. Nathan Eovaldi for the Rangers, 2.97 ERA, 1.04 WHIP. 1.99 ERA at home, Orioles sticks have had 140 AB's against him without a homer. Corbin Burnes for Baltimore, 2.43 ERA, 1.04 WHIP. 2.94 ERA on the road this season, Rangers rank 21^st in OPS vs. righties. I'll drink the juice, NRFI it is.

@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Friday

TBD

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Sun, 14 Jul 2024 11:32:41 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 153-108, 58.6%, up 16.5315 units

@KotaCapperKyle 54-55, 49.5%, down 7.53 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Sunday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - Texas Rangers at Houston Astros (-113)

Ronel Blanco for the Astros today, 2.53 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 2.66 ERA over his last 7 starts. He's earned my respect all season with 14 of 17 starts resulting in 2 or fewer runs allowed. Max Scherzer will toe the rubber for the Rangers, 4 starts this year with a 3.09 ERA, 0.94 WHIP. He's yet to allow a run in the first, let's see if he can keep that trend going for another day.

NRFI - Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays (-115)

Ryan Pepiot for the Rays, 4.20 ERA, 1.13 WHIP on the season. Opponents are hitting just .207 against him, Guardians are hitting .239 vs. righties this season. Pepiot was strong last out going 5.2 innings against the Yankees allowing just 1 run. Ben Lively goes for the Guardians, 3.59 ERA, 1.19 WHIP. 15 starts, 1 run allowed in the first. I like that stat. Last start was forgettable at Detroit allowing 6 runs over 5.1 innings. Rays rank 27^th in OPS vs. righties. NRFI it is.

NRFI - Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals (-115)

Miles Mikolas gets the call for the Cardinals, 4.88 ERA on the season, last 7 have been much better with a 3.86 ERA. Faced the Cubs a few weeks ago, 6.1 innings allowing 1 run. Jameson Taillon goes for the Cubbies, 2.99 ERA, 1.16 WHIP. Excellent first inning numbers with a 2.40 ERA. Faced the Cardinals a couple weeks back, 6 innings allowing 2 runs. Both teams are Top 7 in NRFI % this year, let's get 6.

@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Sunday

TBD

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Sat, 13 Jul 2024 11:32:41 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 151-107, 58.5%, up 15.8347 units

@KotaCapperKyle 54-55, 49.5%, down 7.53 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Saturday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles (-115 on FanDuel)

Enough is enough, I need to bet on a Yankee NRFI again. Grayson Rodriguez goes for the O's, 3.52 ERA, 2.27 ERA at home, plus the Yankees have scored the 7^th fewest runs in July with a .211 BA. Luis Gil goes for the Yankees, 3.27 ERA, last 7 starts have been a bit shaky with a 5.73 ERA. The Orioles have scored the 3^rd fewest runs in July. I'm sure this NRFI will wake up the bats, KotaCapperKyle likes the over, Jesse from the newsletter will be attending the game, I'm still going NRFI.

NRFI - Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox (-104 on FanDuel)

Kutter Crawford for the Red Sox, 3.24, 1.07 WHIP, 3.00 ERA in the 1^st inning. Seth Lugo goes for the Royals, 2.21 ERA, 1.04 WHIP on the season. 19 starts allowing just 3 runs in the first, 2.03 ERA on the road. Red Sox have the 4^th best OPS vs. righties, but Lugo has the numbers to support the play. Day ERA of 1.57. Let's go NRFI.

NRFI - Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres (-136 on FanDuel)

5.68 ERA over the last 7 starts for Dylan Cease, 4.21 on the season, 3.69 ERA at home. Homers have haunted Cease this year, BA allowed is better than his career numbers, WHIP is significantly better than his career numbers. I think he's better than his numbers so I'm willing to back him against a dangerous Braves lineup. Reynaldo Lopez goes for the Braves, can't argue with his numbers after 16 starts. 1.71 ERA, 1.13 WHIP. 16 starts, ZERO runs allowed in the first. NRFI it is.

@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Saturday

TBD

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Thu, 11 Jul 2024 11:32:41 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 150-104, 59.1%, up 18.0014 units

@KotaCapperKyle 54-55, 49.5%, down 7.53 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Thursday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - Toronto Blue Jays at San Francisco Giants (-138)

- Broke my heart last night, back for more today. Both teams are Top 5 in NRFI %. Jordan Hicks is on the bump for San Francisco, 3.47 ERA, 3.12 ERA at home, 3.00 ERA in the first. Last 7 starts, not so good with a 5.51 ERA. Former Giant Kevin Gausman goes for Toronto, 4.64 ERA, 2.31 ERA on the road, ugly last 7 starts with a 5.27 ERA. First start in San Fran for Gausman since the Giants elected not to resign him, I expect a strong effort today. Let's get 6.

@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Thursday

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Wed, 10 Jul 2024 11:32:41 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 149-102, 59.4%, up 19.2201 units

@KotaCapperKyle 54-54, 50.0%, down 6.53 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Wednesday (dropped in the newsletter)

NRFI - Chicago Cubs at Baltimore Orioles (-128 on FanDuel)

Shota Imanaga has a 6.51 ERA over his last 7 starts and will be facing the 3^rd best OPS team vs. lefties, I'm nervous. YTD the Cubs lefty has a 3.16 ERA, 2.88 ERA on the road, and a 2.81 ERA in the first. Corbin Burnes for the O's, 2.32 ERA on the season, 1.91 ERA over the last 7 starts, 1.78 ERA at home. Cubs rank 20^th in OPS vs. righties. The top of the Cubs order has had limited success against Burnes provided they don't move Dansby Swanson up. For whatever reason Swanson is 10 for 17 against Burnes with 2 HR's. Let's get 6 without a run tonight.

NRFI - Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers (-130)

How many times can I go to the well? 17 starts for Reese Olson, 0 runs allowed in the opening frame. Crazy stat for a 3-8 pitcher with a 3.22 ERA. Guardians are 1 for 16 against him in his career. On the flip side, I love good pitchers off a bad start. Tanner Bibee goes for the Guardians, 3.67 ERA, 3.20 ERA over his last 7 starts, 2.70 ERA on the road. Last out he was sent to the showers after 4.2 innings allowing 4 against San Francisco. I expect much better tonight against a Tiger lineup that ranks 23^rd in OPS vs. righties. NRFI it is.

NRFI - Toronto Blue Jays at San Francisco Giants (-154)

Logan Webb at home, check. Blue Jays have the 2^nd highest NRFI % in baseball, check. Chris Bassitt for the Blue Jays, 2.47 ERA over his last 7 starts, 2.93 ERA on the road, 2.00 ERA in the first inning. Giants rank 21^st in OPS vs. righties plus the top of the order has had minimal success lifetime vs. Bassitt. NRFI time in San Fran.

@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Wednesday (dropped in the newsletter)

Giants/Blue Jays NRFI (-150 on Draft Kings)

We got two of the best teams at hitting a NRFI going at it in this game. The Blue Jays are hitting a NRFI at a 81.1% clip, and the Giants are hitting at a 80.22% clip. Both of the pitchers in this matchup have been solid lifetime against these teams, and when I see two top five teams in terms of hitting NRFIs competing, it's worth the juice that you have to drink for it!

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Tue, 09 Jul 2024 11:32:41 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 147-102, 59.0%, up 17.4586 units

@KotaCapperKyle 54-54, 50.0%, down 6.53 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Tuesday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - Washington Nationals at New York Mets (-104)

Jose Quintana for the Mets, 4.22 ERA, 3.59 ERA at home, 2.92 ERA over the last 7. Last out, 7 scoreless innings pitched against Washington. Nationals rank 28^th in OPS vs. lefties, rank #1 in NRFI %. Jake Irvin goes for the Nationals, 2.80 ERA on the season with a 1.00 WHIP. Last 7 starts, 1.88 ERA with a 0.95 WHIP. Last out against the Mets he tossed 8 scoreless innings. Not normally a fan of facing a team in back-to-back starts, but the numbers are just too good for me to look the other way. NRFI it is.

NRFI - Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks (-125)

Chris Sale vs. Zac Gallen. Sign me up. Sale was scratched last night, expected to go tonight for Atlanta with his 2.71 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. Zac Gallen at home, 1.72 ERA. I'm not going to overthink it. Give me the NRFI.

@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Tuesday

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Mon, 08 Jul 2024 11:32:41 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 146-102, 58.9%, up 16.5736 units

@KotaCapperKyle 54-54, 50.0%, down 6.53 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Monday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates (-113)

When it comes to the Pirates, I'm always looking at the arm direction of the opposing pitcher. Pirates rank 28^th in OPS vs. righties, Mets are tossing a righty today in rookie Christian Scott. Scott is 0-2 after 6 starts, 4.32 ERA, 1.14 WHIP. He's only allowed 1 first inning run in those 6 starts. Got send down earlier this year, bounced back nicely with a 2.76 ERA in AAA over 42.1 innings. Plus, he had that sub-1 WHIP that I love so much. Last out against Washington, first time through the batting order, didn't allow a hit. I'll bite the hook and back him against the 7^th best NRFI team. Pittsburgh will counter with Mitch Keller, 9-5 record, 3.48 ERA, 2.98 ERA over his last 7 starts, and a 2.12 ERA in the opening frame. Mets are just 7 for 60 lifetime against Keller, .117 BA. Sign me up.

@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Monday

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Sun, 07 Jul 2024 11:32:41 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 144-102, 58.5%, up 14.7844 units

@KotaCapperKyle 54-54, 50.0%, down 6.53 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Sunday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals (+102)

This is now personal for me. On Friday, former Minnesota Twin Sonny Gray gave up a run with 2 down in the first to cost me the NRFI. On Saturday, former Minnesota Twin Lance Lynn gave up 4 runs in the first to cost me the NRFI. If lefty DJ Herz can hold the Cardinals scoreless in the top half my fate will be in yet another former Minnesota Twins pitcher today with Kyle Gibson on the hill. Cardinals rank 29^th in OPS vs. lefties so that should help Herz. 6 outs, that's all I need. Let's cash one of these.

NRFI - Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners (-130)

Blue Jays rank 18^th in OPS vs. righties, Mariners rank 27^th in baseball. Jose Berrios gets the ball for Toronto, 3.63 ERA, 3.00 ERA in the opening frame, 4.75 ERA over his last 7 starts, 4.38 ERA on the road. Splits are concerning until you look at who he has faced of late. Astros, Yankees, Guardians, Guardians, Brewers, and Orioles. All 6 opponents rank in the Top 10 for runs scored, Seattle ranks 27th. George Kirby for the Mariners, 3.32 ERA, 2.40 ERA at home, 1.87 ERA over the last 7 starts. NRFI it is.

@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Sunday

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Sat, 06 Jul 2024 11:32:41 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 144-100, 59.0%, up 16.7844 units

@KotaCapperKyle 54-54, 50.0%, down 6.53 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Saturday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins (-115)

13-12 game last night, 33 combined hits, teams ranked #1 and #2 in June BA, no shortage of offense for either team of late. Joe Ryan gets the call for Minnesota, 3.21 ERA, 0.96 WHIP. I told my daughter that if she ever dates a pitcher, make sure that he has a sub-1 WHIP of he'll drive me crazy. Hunter Brown goes for the Astros, 4.07 ERA, 1.05 ERA over his last 7 starts with a 0.88 WHIP. The ball looked like a softball on Friday for these two teams, I'm hoping that it looks like a golf ball today in the first.

NRFI - St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals (+104)

MacKenzie Gore for the Nationals, 3.47 ERA, 2.85 ERA during the day, plus the Cardinals rank 29th in OPS this year vs. lefties. Lance Lynn will toe the rubber for St. Louis, 3.59 ERA, 3.51 ERA on the road, 3.47 ERA over the last 7 starts. 1st inning numbers are a little shaky, but once again the Nationals rank #1 in NRFI %. Let's do it.

@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Saturday

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Fri, 05 Jul 2024 11:32:41 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 140-99, 58.6%, up 14.4844 units

@KotaCapperKyle 54-54, 50.0%, down 6.53 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Friday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI: New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates (-125)

Paul Skenes for Pittsburgh, 2.06 ERA, he's given up a first inning run in 3 straight games after shutting going 6/6 in the first to start his career. Luis Severino gets the call for New York, 3.42 ERA, 1.69 ERA in the first inning. Pirates are the 7^th best NRFI team and rank 29^th in OPS vs. righties. NRFI it is.

NRFI: St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals (-115)

Patrick Corbin on the hill for the Nationals, 5.49 ERA, 4.43 ERA over the last 7 starts, 2.12 ERA in the first inning. Cardinals rank 29^th in OPS vs. lefties, 6^th best NRFI team. Sonny Gray for St. Louis, 2.98 ERA on the season, Nationals rank 20^th in OPS vs. righties. Road splits and recent trends concern me for Gray, still backing the NRFI since the Nationals have the highest NRFI % in baseball.

NRFI: Detroit Tigers at Cincinnati Reds (-105)

Here we go again. Reese Olson for the Tigers, 16 starts this year, 16 starts without allowing a run in the first. 3.33 ERA on the road this season, Reds rank 23^rd in OPS vs. righties. Carson Spiers for the Reds, 3.13 ERA over 8 appearances this year, Tigers rank 24^th in OPS vs. righties. Let's get 6 without a run.

NRFI: Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves (-120)

Aaron Nola for the Braves, 3.43 ERA, 2.12 ERA in the first. Braves sticks have 17 homers off Nola over 328 AB's, .265 BA. Max Fried for the Braves, 2.91 ERA, 1.94 ERA over his last 7 starts. Phillies lineup has had success off Fried, .313 BA over 115 AB's. I always like good pitching over good hitting. Let's get out of the first without a mark.

NRFI: Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners (-140)

Luis Castillo for the Mariners, 3.87 ERA, 3.19 ERA at home, Toronto bats are 15 for 69 against him lifetime for a .217 BA. Blue Jays are still the 3^rd best NRFI team in baseball. Kevin Gausman is on the bump for the Blue Jays, 4.75 ERA, 2.22 ERA on the road continuing his tradition of being much better away from home. Seattle ranks 26^th in OPS vs. righties. Pitcher friendly park. Let's do it.

@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Friday

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Wed, 03 Jul 2024 03:05:25 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 140-99, 58.6%, up 14.4844 units

@KotaCapperKyle 52-53, 49.5%, down 7.28 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Wednesday

No plays today, on vacation.

@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Wednesday (dropped on the podcast)

New York Mets/Washington Nationals NRFI (-115)

Both of these teams are starting rookies on the mound. The Mets are bringing out Christian Scott, who has an 0-2 record, a 3.90 ERA and has 25 Ks to 6 walks. Not too shabby numbers. Meanwhile, the Nationals are bringing out Mitchell Parker with a 5-4 record, a 3.32 ERA, and 63 Ks to 18 BBs. Also not bad numbers. Add on the fact that these are some of the best NRFI teams in baseball with the Nationals hitting a NRFI at a 85.7% clip (best in MLB) and the Mets hitting a NRFI at a 71.9% clip, this has the making of a NRFI to me.

Boston Red Sox/Miami Marlins NRFI (-125)

This is a NRFI that caught my eye after looking at the pitching matchup. The Red Sox are starting Brayan Bello with a 7-5 record and a 5.55 ERA. However, Bello has had success against the Marlins lifetime, as Marlins hitters are batting a combined .205 against him lifetime with only one run allowed. I like that matchup. Meanwhile the Marlins are starting Trevor Rodgers on the mound. He has greatly struggled this season with a 1-8 record and a 4.87 ERA. Rodgers has only faced off against three Red Sox batters lifetime, and the only one that bats towards the top of the lineup that has had success is Rafael Devers. I am willing to make the risk with one batter not to score a run, especially at a -125 price.

Baltimore Orioles/Seattle Mariners NRFI (-145)

Originally Corbin Burnes was supposed to be on the mound for the Orioles, but they changed it up and now it sounds like they are starting Dean Kramer. The 28 year old has a 3-4 record with a 4.42 ERA. No Mariners batter has faced off against Kramer lifetime, so this will be a new pitcher for the Mariners. Meanwhile, the Mariners are starting Logan Gilbert on the mound with a 5-4 record, a 2.72 ERA, and a 0.88 WHIP (best in the AL). Lifetime, Orioles batters are batting .205 against Gilbert with only one run scored. This all sounds like a NRFI to me, so let’s do it!

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Tue, 02 Jul 2024 11:32:41 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 136-98, 58.1%, up 12.2177 units

@KotaCapperKyle 52-53, 49.5%, down 7.28 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Tuesday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - LA Angels at Oakland Athletics (-125)

Jose Soriano for the Angels, 3.48 ERA, 2.33 ERA on the road, 1.92 ERA in June. Athletics rank 27^th in OPS vs. righties so this should be a favorable matchup tonight. Not a fan of back-to-back starts against the same team typically, Mitch Spence gets the call for Oakland after allowing 6 runs over 5.1 innings last out at LA. He was really good for 3 innings before giving up a 5-spot in the 4th. Spence has a 4.35 ERA on the season, 3.99 at home. Both teams are Top 10 NRFI teams, let's get 6 outs without a run.

NRFI - San Diego Padres at Texas Rangers (-128)

Padres rank 3^rd in OPS vs. righties, Rangers rank 22nd. Dylan Cease has a 5.03 ERA over his last 7 starts, 3.84 ERA on the season for the Padres. Not great. Texas sticks are a career 16 for 72 against Cease, .222 BA. Nathan Eovaldi for the Texas, 3.45 ERA, 2.22 ERA at home, 2.08 ERA in the first inning. San Diego sticks are a career 7 for 39 against him, .179 BA. Let's hope for a repeat of the past, NRFI it is.

NRFI - St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates (-140)

I can't seem to beat Kyle Gibson so I'm going to back him tonight for St. Louis. Gibby has a 3.70 ERA on the season, 2.68 ERA on the road, Pirates are a career .206 against him, and Pittsburgh ranks 29^th in OPS vs. righties this season. Mitch Keller is on the bump for Pittsburgh looking to continue his strong season, 3.20 ERA, 2.36 ERA at home, 2.25 ERA in the 1st. Cardinals are a career .250 against Keller and rank 13^th in OPS vs. righties this year. Both teams are Top 7 in NRFI %. Let's go for it.

NRFI - San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Braves (-105)

Reynaldo Lopez on the bump for the Braves, 1.70 ERA, 1.11 ERA at home, and my favorite stat is 14 starts allowing ZERO runs in the 1st. Giants counter with 22-year-old rookie Hayden Birdsong making his second career start. He allowed 3 runs over 4.2 against the Cubs in his debut, 2.51 ERA in minors this year with opponents hitting just .196 against him. I don't trust a ton of rookies, but I will tonight.

NRFI - Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins (-125)

Tarik Skubal for the Tigers, check. Simeon Woods Richardson for the Twins, 3.41 ERA, 2.77 ERA in the first inning. Tigers rank 26^th in OPS vs. righties, rank 22^nd in runs scored. That's enough for me.

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Mon, 01 Jul 2024 11:32:41 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 135-98, 57.9%, up 11.4177 units

@KotaCapperKyle 52-53, 49.5%, down 7.28 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Monday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - New York Mets at Washington Nationals (-125)

MacKenzie Gore gets the call for the Nationals, 3.60 ERA, 1.39 WHIP. Gore had a 2.91 ERA at the end of May, Mets scored 6 runs over 4.1 to start June and month continued down that path with a 5.13 ERA. Mets are a career 18 for 60 against Gore, .300 BA. 1^st inning numbers have remained strong for Gore, 16 starts allowing only 3 runs. The Mets can hit lefties so I'm 1 inning and done in this one. David Peterson is on the bump for the Mets, 3.67 ERA, 1.48 WHIP. Washington has had some lifetime success against Peterson, 25 for 74, .338 BA, but they are struggling against lefties this year ranking 28^th in OPS. He gave up 2 runs over 6.2 innings against the Nationals earlier this season. Peterson is perfect in the 1^st inning, 5 starts with 0 runs allowed. He's already faced the likes of the Dodgers and Yankees so that makes me feel a bit better plus the Nationals are the BEST NRFI team in baseball.

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Sun, 30 Jun 2024 11:32:41 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 134-96, 58.3%, up 12.5844 units

@KotaCapperKyle 52-53, 49.5%, down 7.28 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Sunday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers (-122 on FanDuel)

Freddy Peralta today for Milwaukee, I'm a Peralta guy and I'm seeing signs of the Peralta that had a 2.81 ERA in 2021 with a sub-1 WHIP. Chicago hitters are a career 19 for 114, .167 BA against Peralta. Kyle Hendricks for the Cubs, 6.87 ERA this year, 2.67 ERA over the last 7 starts. 2.00 ERA in the 1^st inning. Milwaukee hitters are a career 25 for 119 against Hendricks, .210 BA. Both teams are in the top half of NRFI % on the season, let's get another one home.

NRFI - Washington Nationals at Tampa Bay Rays (-120 on FanDuel)

Patrick Corbin for the Nationals, 5.46 ERA, 4 of the last 5 starts have been good. 2 runs allowed at Cleveland, 1 run allowed at Detroit, 1 run allowed vs. Arizona, and then went 7 allowing 3 runs against the Padres all in the 1st. Solid 1^st inning ERA of 2.25. Taj Bradley for the Rays, 3.81 ERA, 4 straight starts giving up 2 or fewer runs against the Orioles, Cubs, Twins, and Mariners. Let's get 6.

NRFI - Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners (-142 on FanDuel)

Going back to the well for the 3^rd straight in Seattle. Love the matchup today. Joe Ryan for the Twins, 3.31 ERA, 2.92 ERA on the road. Luis Castillo for the Mariners, 3.79 ERA, 2.96 ERA at home, 3.18 ERA in the 1st. Twins rank 10^th in OPS vs. righties, Mariners rank 24th. I love both pitchers, I'm on the NRFI.

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Sat, 29 Jun 2024 11:32:41 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 133-94, 58.6%, up 13.8152 units

@KotaCapperKyle 50-52, 49.0%, down 8.13 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Saturday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals (-113)

Cole Ragans gets the call for the Royals, 3.03 ERA on the year, 2.65 ERA in the opening frame. Cleveland ranks 6^th in OPS vs. lefties so this won't be the easiest 3 outs in baseball. Tanner Bibee is on the bump for the Guardians, 3.50 ERA, 2.25 ERA in the first, Royals rank 14^th in OPS vs. righties. Nothing easy about this one but I'll going to roll in the dice. NRFI it is.

NRFI - Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlanta Braves (-130)

I'll circle and star this one today. Paul Skenes for Pittsburgh, 2.14 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 0.98 ERA on the road. Looks like the rookie is the real deal. On the flipside, Maximus Max Fried is on the bump for the Braves, 3.00 ERA, 1.07 WHIP. Pittsburgh sticks are a career 17 for 77 against him. 221 BA. Family event for me on Saturday afternoon around, I have a funny feeling that I might have to run back to the car to get my wallet during the 1^st inning so I can follow. Both teams are mid-pack in OPS, let's get 6 without a scratch.

NRFI - Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners (-130)

Bryce Miller gets the call for Seattle, 3.90 ERA, 1.04 WHIP. Excellent home ERA with a 1.82, first inning ERA is shaky at best with a 5.63. Struggled last out allowing 6 runs over 4 innings at Miami of all teams. I'm hoping for a strong bounce back early. Pablo Lopez gets the ball for Minnesota, 8 shutout innings at Oakland last out, YTD numbers are not good with a 5.11 ERA, 5.06 ERA in the 1st. Seattle sticks are a lifetime 17 for 72 against Lopez, .236 BA. The Mariners rank 22^nd in OPS vs. righties this year, I'm still a believer in the Lopez. Let's get this NRFI home.

@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Saturday (dropped in the newsletter)

NRFI - Padres/Red Sox (-120)

NRFI - Twins/Mariners (-140)

NRFI - Nationals/Rays (-115)

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Fri, 28 Jun 2024 11:32:41 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 131-94, 58.2%, up 12.3763 units

@KotaCapperKyle 50-52, 49.0%, down 8.13 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Friday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners (-138)

Which Bailey Ober will we see tonight? The last 2 starts were both against Oakland. 6.1 innings - 1 run allowed followed by 9 innings - 2 runs allowed. Athletics rank 27^th in OPS vs. righties, Mariners rank 25^th so the numbers are similar. 9 starts for Ober allowing 2 or fewer runs, 6 starts allowing 3 or more. Pitcher friendly park, I'm hoping Ober can keep it rolling. Logan Gilbert goes for the Mariners, 2.71 ERA, 0.89 WHIP. The Twins are heating up at the plate, but Gilbert is also red hot, back-to-back starts going 8 innings without giving up a run. My DNA is pitching good pitching over good hitting. Let's get 6.

NRFI - LA Dodgers at San Francisco Giants (-140)

Eyes wide open. Ohtani is a 3 for 7 vs. Logan Webb, Freddie Freeman is 14 for 31. It's still Logan Webb at HOME. 2.06 ERA at home, 2 starts against the Dodgers this year, 4.66 ERA. At home, 6 shutout innings against the Dodgers on May 15th. I'm hoping for the same tonight. I have a love/hate relationship with rookies. The Dodgers send out Landon Knack for his 6^th career start, 2.10 ERA so far with a 0.94 WHIP. 2^nd start since being recalled for the 3^rd time this season, 3.54 ERA over 48.1 innings in AAA. Giants rank 25^th in OPS vs. righties, 26^th in 1^st innings runs scored, and have the 4^th best NRFI %. Let's run with it.

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Thu, 27 Jun 2024 11:22:06 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 130-92, 58.6%, up 13.7096 units

@KotaCapperKyle 50-52, 49.0%, down 8.13 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Tuesday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - Chicago Cubs at San Francisco Giants (-150)

Shota Imanaga goes for the Cubbies, 2.96 ERA, 1.10 WHIP. 2.60 ERA on the road, 5.06 ERA over the last 7 starts. He's allowed 5 or more runs in 3 of his last 5 starts including 10 runs allowed over 3 innings last out against the Mets. Giants rank 8^th in OPS vs. lefties, Giants also have the 4^th highest NRFI %. Jordan Hicks goes for the Giants, 3.24 ERA, 2.86 ERA at home. Struggled last out allowing 5 runs over 4 innings at St. Louis. The Cubs rank 19^th in OPS vs. righties, 6^th best NRFI team. Let's go for it.

NRFI - Atlanta Braves at Chicago White Sox (-130)

Chris Sale goes for the Braves with a 2.91 ERA, 0.93 WHIP. That's all I need to say about the bottom half. Can I get the first 3 outs is the question? Drew Thorpe makes his 4^th career start for the White Sox, 5.02 ERA, 1.53 WHIP. Good starts against Seattle and Detroit, terrible start allowing 8 runs over 3.1 innings at Arizona. First home start, I'm hoping for a good one. Let's cash this one.

NRFI - Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles (-128)

I had this on and off the card 3x tonight. I'm mad at Baltimore for not hitting on Wednesday against Carlos Carrasco, not I'm scared that they will burn me the opposite direction tonight. The Orioles rank 2^nd in OPS vs. righties, Rangers rank 24th. Jon Gray toes the rubber for the Rangers, 3.03 ERA, 2.20 ERA on the road, 6 shutout innings against the Royals last out. Corbin Burnes is on the bump for Baltimore, 2.35 ERA, 1.01 WHIP. This could end in a meltdown for me, still going to try. NRFI it is.

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Wed, 26 Jun 2024 11:22:06 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 129-91, 58.6%, up 13.9096 units

@KotaCapperKyle 50-52, 49.0%, down 8.13 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Tuesday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - Seattle Mariners at Tampa Bay Rays (-125)

George Kirby gets the call for the Mariners, 3.47 ERA, allowing 2 or fewer runs in 5 consecutive starts. Rays rank 26^th in OPS vs. righties. Ryan Pepiot goes for the Rays, 4.61 ERA on the year, 6.25 over the last 7 starts, home ERA is 5.36, 1^st inning ERA is 6.92. His April ERA of 3.12 seems like forever ago at this point. Pepiot has wicked stuff at times, Mariners rank 23^rd in OPS vs. righties. NRFI it is.

NRFI - Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago White Sox (+115)

The Dodgers are the 4^th highest scoring team in baseball, 3^rd best YRFI percentage in baseball, and rank 4^th best in OPS vs. righties. Erick Fedde for Chicago, 3.05 ERA, 0.95 ERA at home. This will be his first home start since May 25^th when he tossed 6.1 shutout innings against Baltimore. Gavin Stone for LA, 3.04 ERA, 2.91 ERA on the road, 2.57 ERA over the last 7 starts. The White Sox are the 3^rd best NRFI team, rank 30^th in OPS vs. righties. If I make it to the bottom half, I like my odds.

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Tue, 25 Jun 2024 11:22:06 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 127-90, 58.5%, up 13.393 units

@KotaCapperKyle 49-50, 49.5%, down 7.13 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Tuesday (dropped in the newsletter)

NRFI - Philadelphia Phillies at Detroit Tigers (-136 on FanDuel)

This bet is a great example of why I'm at peace with flat betting. I missed a good pricing opportunity last night, mentally I can accept winning less vs. losing more if I played to win a full unit. Phillies are 3^rd best in OPS vs. lefties so that is a major concern. Tarik Skubal is coming off back-to-back subpar starts on the road. I love good pitchers in bounce back spots. Skubal has a 2.50 ERA on the season, 0.97 WHIP, 2.01 ERA at home, 1.80 ERA in the 1st. Ranger Suarez goes for Philadelphia, 1.75 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 1.94 ERA on the road. Tigers rank 25^th in OPS vs. lefties. No regrets, I like this bet.

NRFI - Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds (-115 on DraftKings)

Hitter friendly park NRFI? Little scary. Mitch Keller for the Pirates, 3.11 ERA, 2.40 ERA in the 1st, 1.65 ERA over his last 7 starts. Hunter Greene for the Reds, 3.35 ERA, 1.80 ERA in the 1st. Reds are a career .231 against Keller, Pirates are a career .211 against Greene. Teams rank 24^th and 29^th in OPS vs. righties. Let's get 6 without a run.

NRFI - Oakland Athletics at LA Angels (-128 on FanDuel)

Mitch Spence has been a nice surprise this season, 3.86 ERA, 3.65 ERA on the road. Angels rank 24^th in OPS vs. righties this season and have the 10^th highest NRFI %. Tyler Anderson for the Angels, 2.48 ERA on the season, 2.00 ERA over the last 7 games. Oakland sticks are a career 4 for 30 off Anderson. Oakland ranks 19^th in OPS vs. lefties this year, 5^th highest NRFI %. Let's do it.

@KotaCapperKyle's Plays for Tuesday (dropped on the podcast)

Phillies/Tigers NRFI (-120)

I would argue that we see two of the best pitchers in baseball in this game. We got Ranger Suarez for the Phillies with a 10-1 record and a 1.75 ERA, both top in the league. He has had the best season of his career by a very large margin, and has not shown any signs of slowing down. Meanwhile, the Tigers have Tarik Skubal on the mound with a 8-3 record and a 2.50 ERA. He had his worst outing of the season last game where he had 4 earned runs and a loss. Certainly an outlier for him. I expect a big bounce back game from him in this one, and a solid early start overall.

Marlins/Royals NRFI (+110)

We got an interesting matchup here in terms of pitching. The Marlins have Yonny Chironos on the mound. The 30 year old is making only his second start of the season this year, and in his first he went 5 innings, allowed 2 runs, and had six strikeouts against the Cardinals. Lifetime, the Royals are batting .300 against him, so not great numbers favoring the pitcher. However, the Royals are still a solid NRFI team, hitting at a 72.1% clip. I can trust them to not get a run here. Meanwhile, the Royals are starting Seth Lugo, who is having one of the best starts to a season of his career with a 10-2 record and a 2.42 ERA. He has absolutely dominated the Marlins hitters lifetime, as six batters have gone up against him, and they are hitting a combined .065 against him.

Dodgers/White Sox NRFI (+105)

The Dodgers have second year pitcher Bobby Miller on the mound. He has struggled this season with a 1-1 record and a 6.00 ERA. However, he had a very solid season last year, so his ability to peak can come at any time, and I could see that here against one of the worst teams in baseball. Meanwhile, the White Sox have Chris Flexin on the mound, and to say that this season has been a struggle for him is an understatement. He has a 2-6 record and a 5.03 ERA. However, the Dodgers aren’t dominant against him lifetime by any means, as they are a combined .226 off of him lifetime. The batters in the top of the lineup are all batting below .220 off him. He can shut them down for one inning.

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Mon, 24 Jun 2024 11:22:06 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 124-90, 57.9%, up 10.8883 units

@KotaCapperKyle 49-50, 49.5%, down 7.13 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Monday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - Seattle Mariners at Tampa Bay Rays (-125)

Rays rank 26^th in OPS vs. righties, Mariners rank 23rd. Bryan Woo is on the bump for the Mariners, 1.67 ERA, 0.61 WHIP over 37.2 innings pitched. 7 starts, 1 run allowed in the 1st. Taj Bradley will toe the rubber for the Rays, 4.06 ERA, 1.15 WHIP. 2.10 ERA at home, last 3 starts have been encouraging allowing 2 or fewer runs against the Orioles, Cubs, and Twins. Let's try for 6 without a run.

NRFI - Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewers (-122)

Freddy Peralta might be next to JP Sears on my Mount Rushmore of pitchers that I tend to overvalue. I've seen the dominate Peralta far too many times not to get excited when he takes the hill. Opponents hit just .165 against him in 2021, .190 in 2022. This year he has a 4.06 ERA, highest since 2019. This year he has a 1.17 WHIP, highest since 2019. This year opponents are hitting .222 against him, the highest since 2019. He's only 28, he had a 2.81 ERA post-All Star last year. I'm hoping that he starts to turn the corner a bit early this year. Michael Lorenzen goes for Texas, 3.00 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 2.55 ERA on the road. The Brewers are tough against righties, but both teams are Bottom 10 in scoring this month. Let's go NRFI.

Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres (-113)

NRFI with Patrick Corbin on the bump? Corbin is 1-7, 5.60 ERA, 1.60 WHIP. The last 2 starts have been solid, 1 run allowed over 5.1 at Detroit, 1 run allowed over 5 against Arizona. The Padres rank 22^nd in OPS vs. lefties giving me hope plus Corbin has a 2.40 ERA in 1^st this year. Matt Waldron gets the call for the Padres, 3.46 ERA, 1.16 WHIP. His last 7 starts have been really good, 1.64 ERA, 0.91 WHIP. Nationals rank 18^th in OPS vs. righties. Let's hope for a clean first.

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Sun, 23 Jun 2024 11:22:06 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 124-87, 59.2%, up 13.8883 units

@KotaCapperKyle 49-48, 50.5%, down 4.58 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Saturday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI: Tampa Bay Rays at Pittsburgh Pirates (-140)

Rays rank 27^th in OPS vs. righties, Pirates rank 29^th in OPS vs. righties. Paul Skenes for Pittsburgh, 2.29 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 7 starts allowing 1 run in the 1st. I feel good about the top half. Aaron Civale has one thing going for him this year, 1.80 ERA in the 1st. Let's get 6.

NRFI: Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers (-102)

Reese Olson continues to be a statistical wonder for the Tigers. 1-8 record, 3.39 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 14 starts allowing ZERO runs in the 1st. Tough not to back that trend. Jonathan Cannon gets the call for the White Sox, 7.24 ERA in April earning him a bus trip back to AAA. Since his return, 18.2 innings allowing 1 run. 0.48 ERA. I'm hoping that trend continues against a Detroit lineup that ranks 24^th in OPS vs. righties.

NRFI: San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals (-150)

Logan Webb vs. Sonny Gray with a pair of sub-3 ERA's. Nothing more needs to be said. Sign me up!

@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Sunday (dropped in the newsletter)

NRFI: Rays/Pirates (-135)

The #1 overall pick in last year's draft is living up to the hype. Paul Skenes has been dominant so far this season with a 4-0 record, a 2.95 ERA, and 53 K's to 7 BB's. He has been absolutely dominant. Although Aaron Civale for the Rays has struggled, the Pirates have been one of the best in the league in hitting NRFIs doing so at a 78.7% clip. A good pitcher and a good NRFI team sounds like a NRFI to me.

NRFI: Blue Jays/Guardians (-120)

Both pitchers in this matchup has had great success against the other team historically. The Blue Jays are starting Yusei Kikuchi, and Guardians batters are batting a combined .154 against him lifetime. The Guardians are starting Triston McKenzie, and Blue Jays batters are batting .172 against him lifetime. The Blue Jays are also the best team in the league at covering NRFI's, doing so at a 86.7% clip. All this boiled together sounds like a 3 up and 3 down inning to me.

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Sat, 22 Jun 2024 11:22:06 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 122-84, 59.2%, up 15.1162 units

@KotaCapperKyle 49-48, 50.5%, down 4.58 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Saturday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals (-125)

Miles Mikolas gets the call for the Cardinals, 4.59 ERA on the season, 2.76 ERA over the last 7 starts, 1.40 ERA in June. Giants rank 19^th in OPS vs. righties and have the 5^th highest NRFI % this year. Jordan Hicks goes for San Francisco, 2.82 ERA, 2.76 ERA on the road, 2.40 ERA in the 1^st inning. Cardinals have the 7^th best NRFI % so let's do it.

NRFI - Tampa Bay Rays at Pittsburgh Pirates (-113)

Rookie Jared Jones goes for the Pirates, 3.76 ERA, 2.14 ERA at home, Rays rank 24^th in OPS vs. righties. Zach Eflin goes for the Rays, 4.12 ERA, Pirates rank 29^th in OPS vs. righties and have the 8^th best NRFI rate this season. Let's get 6 without a run.

NRFI - Minnesota Twins at Oakland Athletics (-125)

My brother from California and his son will be attending this game. I remember sitting out in the bleachers in Oakland back in the late-80's watching the Bash Brothers with Canseco and McGwire, good times. This will be the final trip to Oakland ever for the Twins to face an old AL West rival. JP Sears goes for Oakland, most of know that I love his stuff. He struggled last out against Minnesota giving up 4 over 4.1, but Sears has been better at home with a 3.31 ERA. Bailey Ober goes for Minnesota, 4.81 ERA. Last out he allowed just 1 run against Oakland over 6.1. I expect to see some early donuts at the Coliseum, NRFI it is.

NRFI - Baltimore Orioles at Houston Astros (-122)

Tough to get much better on the pitching front. Corbin Burnes for Baltimore with a 2.14 ERA. Ronel Blanco for Houston with a 2.43 ERA. I'm not going to overthink this one. I'll tip my cap if they beat me. I'll take good pitching over good hitting.

NRFI - Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardians (-105)

Both pitchers struggled against the opponent last out. Jose Berrios gave up 4 over 6 against Cleveland, Ben Lively gave up 4 over 4 against Toronto. On the season, both pitchers have solid numbers. Berrios has 3.13 ERA, Lively a 3.02 ERA. Toronto is the #1 NRFI team in baseball, let's cash it.

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Fri, 21 Jun 2024 11:22:06 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 120-82, 59.4%, up 15.434 units

@KotaCapperKyle 47-48, 49.5%, down 6.58 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Friday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers (-128)

Jack Flaherty will toe the rubber for the Tigers, 3.01 ERA, 0.95 WHIP on the season. 2.16 ERA over the last 7 starts, White Sox rank 30^th in OPS vs. righties. Erick Fedde gets the call for the White Sox, 3.09 ERA on the season, 1.80 ERA in the 1^st inning. He's given up 2 or fewer runs in 10 of 15 starts, Tigers rank 22^nd in OPS vs. righties. Numbers work for me.

NRFI - Boston Red Sox at Cincinnati Reds (-108)

Arm direction splits sold me on this one. Reds rank 26^th in OPS vs. righties, Red Sox rank 10^th in OPS vs. lefties. Weaker split for both teams sticks. Kutter Crawford is on the bump for Boston, 3.54 ERA, 2.62 ERA on the road, 3.00 ERA in the 1^st inning. Andrew Abbott goes for Cincinnati, 3.42 ERA, 3.34 ERA at home. Please don't look at his 1^st inning numbers, or you might get sick to your stomach. He's allowed 2 or fewer earned in 10 of 14 starts, body of work is strong enough for me.

NRFI - Seattle Mariners at Miami Marlins (-115)

This is my stubborn streak coming out again. Mariners burned me on Wednesday & Thursday, I want payback tonight. Seattle ranks 21^st in OPS vs. lefties, Trevor Rogers has been really good in 3 of his last 4 starts for the Marlins dropping his ERA from 6.11 to 5.09. I think he can get me the first 3 outs that I need. George Kirby goes for Seattle, 3.54 ERA, 2.93 ERA over his last 7. Marlins rank 28^th in OPS vs. righties. Let's get 6.

NRFI - Kansas City Royals at Texas Rangers (-111)

Nathan Eovaldi for the Rangers, 3.15 ERA, 2.09 ERA at home, 2.45 ERA in the 1st. Added bonus, bounce back spot after lasting just 3 innings at Seattle giving up 4. Brady Singer for the Royals, 3.39 ERA, 1.93 ERA in the 1st. Rangers rank 18^th in OPS vs. righties, ranked 29^th in OPS this month. NRFI it is.

@KotaCapperKyle Card for Friday (dropped in the newsletter)

NRFI - Tigers/White Sox (-125)

This one is particularly risky. The numbers say that the splits do not work out in the favor of the NRFI, as the Tigers hitters are hitting very well off of White Sox pitcher Erick Fedde lifetime. However, he's having one of the best starts to a season of his career with a 5-1 record and a 3.09 ERA. I think he can hold the Tigers off for an inning, and I'll always bet on the White Sox to not score a run.

NRFI - Brewers/Padres (-125)

Good pitching will always dominate good hitting, and that's exactly what I think will happen here in the first inning. Colin Rea is on the mound for the Brewers spotting a 6-2 record and a 3.29 ERA. Padres batters are hitting .273 off of him lifetime. Meanwhile the Padres have Dylan Cease on the mound with a 6-6 record and a 3.95 ERA. He has dominated the Brewers lifetime, as they have hit a combined .105 off of him lifetime. Dominant pitching leads to NRFIs, so let's go for it.

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Thu, 20 Jun 2024 11:22:06 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 120-81, 59.7%, up 16.434 units

@KotaCapperKyle 47-48, 49.5%, down 6.58 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Play for Thursday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Guardians (-128)

Tough to find a NRFI on the card, this bet has plenty of fleas. Rubber match for me, 3^rd time in 3 days betting this NRFI, 1-1 so far. Luis Castillo for the Mariners, 3.32 ERA, 1.14 WHIP. 2.40 ERA in the 1^st inning this year. Kwan is 5 for 12 career vs. Castillo so the leadoff spot could determine this bet. Logan Allen gets the call for the Guardians, 5.30 ERA, 1.49 WHIP. 7.33 ERA at home, 5.14 ERA in the 1^st inning. Seattle sticks are a career 4 for 20 against Allen, Seattle ranks 23^rd in OPS vs lefties. I'm going to walk away for 15 minutes and hope that I cash, I can't watch this one.

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Wed, 19 Jun 2024 11:22:06 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 118-80, 59.6%, up 16.0398 units

@KotaCapperKyle 47-48, 49.5%, down 6.58 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Wednesday (dropped in the newsletter)

NRFI - Detroit Tigers at Atlanta Braves (-160)

Reynaldo Lopez for the Braves,12 starts, 0 runs allowed in the 1^st on just 6 hits. Tough to pass that up. Lopez has a 1.69 ERA on the season with a 1.04 WHIP. Tarik Skubal for the Tigers, 2.20 ERA, 0.91 WHIP on the year. 1.93 in the 1st. Plus, I get Skubal in a bounce back spot after allowing 4 runs to the Astros last out. Kicking myself for not betting last night, I'll drink the extra juice.

NRFI - Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates (-130)

Reds rank 23^rd in OPS vs. righties, Pirates rank 29th. Hunter Greene goes for the Reds, 3.61 ERA, 3.06 ERA on the road, 1.93 ERA in the 1st. I'm good with those numbers. Mitch Keller goes for the Pirates, 3.36 ERA, 2.79 ERA at home, 2.57 ERA in the 1st. I'm good with those numbers. Let's get 6 without a run.

NRFI - Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Guardians (-130)

Both teams are in the bottom half in OPS vs. righties, both teams are in the top half in NRFI %. Tanner Bibee for Cleveland, 1.93 ERA in the 1^st this season, 3.94 ERA overall. 2.98 ERA over 25 starts last year, he's better than his YTD numbers. Bryan Woo for Seattle, 1.07 ERA over 33.2 innings. 6 starts, 0 runs allowed in the 1st, only 1 hit allowed. Sign me up!

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Tue, 18 Jun 2024 11:22:06 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 113-80, 58.5%, up 12.0201 units

@KotaCapperKyle 47-48, 49.5%, down 6.58 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Tuesday (dropped in the newsletter)

NRFI - Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Guardians (-120)

Triston McKenzie for the Guardians, 4.10 ERA on the season. Good start last out at Cincinnati, Seattle ranks 23^rd in OPS vs. righties so that should help. Bryce Miller goes for the Mariners, 3.48 ERA on the year. 2 of his 3 starts in June have resulted in 0 runs allowed. Road numbers are not good, but he's faced some of the best lineups in baseball. Cleveland ranks 11^th in NRFI % this year. Let's cheer for 6 outs without a run tonight.

NRFI - San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies (-115)

Don't look at the hitting splits. Padres rank 3^rd in OPS vs. righties, Phillies rank 8th. The Phillies have the 2^nd highest YRFI %, Padres have the 6th. Aaron Nola for Philadelphia, 3.48 ERA, 2.57 ERA in the 1st. Rocked last out allowed 8 at Boston over 3.2 innings. Bounce back spot. Michael King for the Padres, 3.58 ERA, 3.11 ERA on the road, 1.29 ERA in the 1st. Edge of your seat bet for 6 outs.

NRFI - Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays (-140)

Tanner Houck is on the bump for Boston, 2.08 ERA, 1.66 ERA on the road, 1.29 ERA in the 1^st inning. Blue Jays are the #1 ranked NRFI team in baseball, rank 16^th in OPS vs. righties. Chris Bassitt for the Blue Jays, 3.56 ERA, 1.93 ERA over his last 7 starts, 0.64 ERA in the 1st. Boston hitting splits are scary, but I'll still take good pitching over good hitting.

NRFI - San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs (-130)

5^th and 7^th best NRFI teams in baseball with a pair of aces on the mound. Logan Webb for San Francisco, 3.02 ERA on the season. Cubs rank 25^th in OPS vs. righties. Justin Steele for the Cubs, 3.22 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and a 2.00 ERA in the 1st. No issue with those numbers, let's shoot for a scoreless 1^st on a windy night in Chicago.

NRFI - New York Mets at Texas Rangers (-120)

Luis Severino for the Mets with a 3.12 ERA, Michael Lorenzen for the Rangers with a 2.86 ERA. Severino has a 2.08 ERA in the 1st, Lorenzen a 3.27. Rangers rank 21^st in OPS vs. righties, Mets rank 13th. Let's roll the dice.

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Mon, 17 Jun 2024 11:22:06 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 110-79, 58.2%, up 10.6818 units

@KotaCapperKyle 47-48, 49.5%, down 6.58 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Play for Monday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates (-135)

Scouting report on Reds starting Carson Spiers is limited, 5 appearances this year with a 2.33 ERA over 19.1 innings. 2.51 ERA in AAA this year over 46.2 innings. Pirates rank 29^th in OPS vs. righties so that should help. Paul Skenes for the Pirates, 2.43 ERA over 33.1 innings. 6 starts, 0 runs allowed in the 1^st on 1 hit. Reds rank 23^rd in OPS vs. righties.

NRFI - St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins (-155)

I'm backing a pitcher with a 6.10 ERA and a 15 ERA in the 1^st inning AND I'm paying a price of -155. I thought inflation was bad, this is just craziness. Cardinals are 6^th best NRFI team, Marlins are the 9^th best NRFI team. Cardinals rank 29^th in OPS vs. lefties, Braxton Garrett is a left for the Marlins. Marlins rank 27^th in OPS vs. righties, Sonny Gray is a righty. I like Gray but he has a 5.14 ERA on the road this season. Plug your nose, eat your vitamins, and let's hope that I avoid the potential landmines to get 6 outs without a run.

NRFI - Detroit Tigers at Atlanta Braves (-135)

How long can Reese Olson keep the trend going for the Tigers? 13 starts, 0 runs allowed in the 1st. Amazing stat for a 1-8 pitcher with a 3.68 ERA. Max Fried for the Braves, 3.20 ERA, 1.06 WHIP on the year. Tigers rank 26^th in OPS vs. lefties. That works for me.

NRFI - San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs (-105)

Jordan Hicks for the Giants, 3.01 ERA, 2.57 ERA in the 1^st inning. Jaiver Assad for the Cubs, 2.81 ERA, 1.67 ERA at home, 1.93 ERA in the 1^st inning. Giants rank 21^st in OPS vs. righties, Cubs rank 25th. Giants rank 5^th best in NRFI's, Cubs rank 7^th best in NRFI's. Let's do it.

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Sat, 15 Jun 2024 11:22:06 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 110-78, 58.5%, up 11.6818 units

@KotaCapperKyle 47-48, 49.5%, down 6.58 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Play for Saturday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners (-128)

Rangers burned me on Friday, back for more on Saturday. George Kirby will take his turn on the hill for Seattle, 3.81 ERA, 1.02 WHIP on the season. Excellent home ERA of 2.72, 2 or fewer runs allowed in 3 straight starts. Texas is a career 23 for 101 against him, .228 BA. Nathan Eovaldi gets the call for Texas, 2.68 ERA, 1.09 WHIP. 10 starts, 2 runs allowed in the 1st. Seattle ranks 25^th in OPS vs. righties, Mariners are a career 11 for 58 against Eovaldi, .190 BA. Let's try it again in Seattle.

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Fri, 14 Jun 2024 11:22:06 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 108-76, 58.7%, up 11.8507 units

@KotaCapperKyle 47-48, 49.5%, down 6.58 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Friday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - Philadelphia Phillies at Baltimore Orioles (-120)

Ranger Suarez for the Phillies, 10-1 record, 1.81 ERA, 0.85 WHIP. He's allowed 0 runs in 5 starts this year, he's allowed 2 or fewer in 10 of 13 starts. Baltimore is 3^rd best in OPS vs. lefties, I'll still take good pitching over good hitting. Kyle Bradish for the O's, 2.62 ERA, 1.11 WHIP. 7 starts, 0 runs allowed in the 1^st inning. I like those numbers. Baltimore is #1 in homers. Philadelphia is #6 in homers. I will be sweating this one out until out #6 is in the books.

NRFI - Kansas City Royals at LA Dodgers (-104)

I'm going to flirt with it again tonight with Cole Ragans on the bump for the Royals. The Dodgers are #1 in OPS vs. lefties, #2 in YRFI's behind only the Yankees. Ragans has a 3.08 ERA, 2.76 ERA over his last 7 starts, 4 of his last 5 starts have resulted in 0 or 1 run allowed. Gavin Stone for Dodger Blue, 2.93 ERA on the year, 1.90 ERA over his last 7 starts. Royals rank 24^th in OPS on the road. Let's get 6 without a run tonight.

NRFI - Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners (-138)

Andrew Heaney will toe the rubber for the Rangers, 4.06 ERA, 3.21 ERA on the road, 3.07 ERA over his last 7 starts. Seattle ranks 23^rd in OPS vs. lefties. Luis Castillo was pushed back a day for the Mariners, he should be rested up to face the defending champs who rank 13rd in OPS vs. righties. Counting on the pitcher friendly park to help me out tonight.

NRFI - San Diego Padres at New York Mets (-115)

Last 30 days, Matt Waldron ranks 9^th in ERA for pitchers with 4 or more starts. He's been really good. 3.76 ERA on the year, 3.22 ERA on the road, 1.50 over the last 30 days. Mets rank 19^th in OPS vs. righties. Padres rank 3^rd in OPS vs. righties, 22^nd vs. Lefties. Lefty Sean Manaea gets the call for the Mets, most splits are unfavorable for Manaea except for the one that might matter the most. 12 starts, 1 run allowed in the 1^st inning this season.

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No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Thu, 13 Jun 2024 11:22:06 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 105-75, 58.3%, up 10.5263 units

@KotaCapperKyle 47-48, 49.5%, down 6.58 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Thursday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - Atlanta Braves at Baltimore Orioles (-105)

Reynaldo Lopez on the bump for the Braves, 1.85 ERA, 11 starts, 0 runs allowed in the 1^st inning, only 5 hits. Tough not to like his numbers. Cole Irvin for Baltimore, 2.87 ERA, 2.52 ERA at home, 2.36 ERA over his last 7 starts. 10 starts this year, 0 runs allowed in the 1^st inning. Combined 21 starts without a run in the first. I'm hoping for that amazing run to continue for at least another day.

NRFI - Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners (-165)

Garrett Crochet gets the call for Chicago, 3.33 ERA on the season, 1.10 ERA over his last 7 starts. 1.93 ERA in the opening frame this year, Mariners rank 23^rd in OPS vs. lefties. Luis Castillo goes for the Mariners, 3.35 ERA on the season, 2.95 ERA at home, 1.29 ERA in the opening inning. White Sox rank dead last in OPS vs. righties, rank dead last in runs per game, and have the 4^th highest NRFI % in baseball. Yep, I like the play.

NRFI - Chicago Cubs at Tampa Bay Rays (-120)

Taj Bradley will toe the rubber for the Rays, 5.17 ERA on the season, 1.118 WHIP. Numbers are misleading, he allowed 9 runs at Baltimore in 1 of his 6 starts. He held the Yankees to 1 run, pitched 5 shutout innings against Kansas City, and last out allowed just 1 run over 5 against Baltimore. Those teams rank 1st, 5th, and 6^th in runs scored. He has good stuff and the Cubs are mid pack in OPS vs. righties. Justin Steele is 0-3 for the Cubbies, 3.65 ERA, 1.15 WHIP. 8 starts, 2 runs allowed in the 1st. Let's get 6 without a mark.

NRFI - Philadelphia Phillies at Boston Red Sox (-113)

The Phillies rank #3 in YRFI's, Red Sox rank #8 in YRFI's. Phillies rank #2 in runs per game. I promised several of you that I wouldn't bet another Yankee NRFI until July, betting a Phillies NRFI is the next craziest thing that I can do. Add in the fact that Fenway Park is the 2^nd best hitter friendly park behind only Colorado and this is flirting with trouble. Tanner Houck for Boston, 1.91 ERA, 1.38 ERA in the 1^st inning. Aaron Nola for Philadelphia, 2.77 ERA, 1.82 ERA on the road, 2.77 ERA in the 1^st inning. The deck is stacked against me, but I'll still take good pitching over good hitting.

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Wed, 12 Jun 2024 11:22:06 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 104-74, 58.4%, up 10.8221 units

@KotaCapperKyle 46-46, 50.0%, down 5.28 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Wednesday (dropped in the newsletter)

NRFI - Houston Astros at San Francisco Giants (-142)

Logan Webb at HOME for the Giants, check. Framber Valdez gets the call for the Astros, 2.67 ERA on the road, 16 innings pitched in June allowing only 2 runs. Giant hitters are a career .250 against Valdez over 44 AB's. The Giants have the 4^th best NRFI % so let's do it.

NRFI - Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigers (-128)

Reese Olson goes for Detroit, 1.92 ERA at the end of May. First 2 starts of June, not good allowing 13 runs over 9.1 innings against the Red Sox and Brewers. Nationals rank 23^rd in OPS vs. righties and have the 2^nd highest NRFI % in baseball so that should help. Olson has been $$$ in the 1st, 12 starts, 0 runs allowed on only 4 hits. Jake Irvin gets the call for the Nationals, 3.12 ERA, 2.68 ERA on the road, 1.50 ERA in June, 1.38 ERA in the first inning. Sign me up!

@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Wednesday (dropped on the podcast)

Blue Jays/Brewers NRFI (-115)

Toronto is the top team in the MLB in hitting NRFIs, as they are hitting them at a 86.4% clip. The Brewers are solid at hitting NRFIs as well, as they are hitting them at a 72.7% clip. Now for the pitching splits. The Blue Jays have Chris Bassit on the mound with a 6-6 record and a 3.81 ERA. However, six Brewers batters have faced off against Bassit and are batting a combined .158 against him with only 1 run scored in 38 ABs. The Brewers are bringing out rookie Tobias Myers who has a 2-2 record and a 4.15 ERA. No Blue Jays batters have ever faced off against Myers. It usually takes hitters a little while to adjust to a new pitcher. All of these added together spells out a NRFI for me.

Athletics/Padres NRFI (-135)

We have a solid pitching matchup in this one. The Athletics have Hogan Harris on the bump, who has had a no decision in each of his four games started this year with a 2.21 ERA and 18 Ks. He has faced two batters for the Padres, and they are both 0-2 against Hogan lifetime. Meanwhile the Padres have Micahel King on the mound with a 5-4 record and a 3.58 ERA. Only three batters on the A’s have faced off against King. Although the A’s hitters have had a decent showing against King lifetime, I am willing to bet they will struggle in the first inning, as they’re hitting NRFIs at a 83.8% clip, which is the third best in all of baseball. Let’s take advantage of the solid pitching matchup here, and hope for three up and three down on both sides of the inning.

Guardians/Reds NRFI (-115)

Both of these teams are about in the middle of the league in terms of NRFI hit percentage hitting at a 73.4% and 72.4% rate respectively. The starting pitchers are going to be fairly new for these two teams. The Guardians are bringing out Tanner Biebee with a 4-1 record and a 3.73 ERA. Only one Red has had an AB against him lifetime, and that batter failed to get a hit off of him. The Reds are bringing out Nick Lodolo with a 6-2 record and a 2.92 ERA. Only three batters on the Guardians have faced Lodolo. Two of them are a combined 0-5 against him. His biggest hurdle for getting out of the inning clean? Jose Ramirez. Ramirez is 2 for 2 off of him lifetime with a HR and 3 RBIs. If Lodolo can get past Ramirez, this should be a clean inning. I will always be willing to bet against just one person when it comes to a NRFI, so let’s hope for a quick inning.

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Tue, 11 Jun 2024 11:22:06 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 98-73, 57.3%, up 7.2411 units

@KotaCapperKyle 43-44, 49.4%, down 7.28 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Tuesday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - Atlanta Braves at Baltimore Orioles (-128)

What scares me? No team averages more runs per game than Baltimore, Orioles are #2 in OPS vs. lefties. Max Fried is on the bump for the Braves, 2.93 ERA, 1.02 WHIP. 2.63 ERA on the road, 2.33 ERA at night, 1.86 ERA over his last 7 starts. That's a good. The bad, Fried has allowed 12 runs in the 1^st over 12 starts. Albert Suarez for the O's, 1.83 ERA, 1.02 WHIP on the season over 39.1 innings. He's yet to give up a 1^st inning run over 6 starts. Crazy to think before the season that I would be backing a non-roster invite to spring training against the Braves, but I'll do just that.

NRFI - Miami Marlins at New York Mets (-130)

What scares me? Mets rank 6^th in OPS vs. lefties. Jesus Luzardo goes for the Marlins, hammered last out allowed 9 runs at Tampa Bay over 4.1 innings. Luzardo is now 2-5 with a 5.30 ERA and 1.25 WHIP on the season. Mets are a career 25 for 102 vs. Luzardo, .245 BA. For all his troubles this year he's only given up 2 runs in the 1^st over 10 starts. Tylor Megill gets the call for the Mets, 4 starts this year, 3.00 ERA. Struggled last out allowing 5 runs over 5 at Washington, prior to that he shutout the Dodgers for 7 innings. That's baseball. Marlins are 26^th in OPS vs. righties. I'll take my chances.

NRFI - Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals (-138)

Paul Skenes is must see TV for the Pirates. 5 starts, 0 runs allowed in the 1st. Miles Mikolas goes for the Cardinals, 5.32 ERA, 1.28 WHIP. Pirates rank 29^th in OPS vs. righties, I like that number. The Pirates have the 6^th best NRFI %, Cardinals have the 7^th best NRFI % this year. I like that combo, NRFI it is.

NRFI - New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals (+110)

I have a feeling that I would be kicking myself if I did the math on how much I've lost this year on Yankee NRFI's. The Yankees rank #1 in YRFI's, Royals rank #5. I know this and still can't stop myself. Brady Singer takes the hill for KC, 2.76 ERA on the year. 2/16 ERA at home. 12 starts, 2 runs allowed in the 1^st with opponents hitting only .125 against. Marcus Stroman for the Yankees, 3.04 ERA, 1.24 WHIP. 1.82 ERA on the road, 1.67 ERA in May. I like good pitchers in bounce back spots, Stroman last only 4.2 giving up 5 against Minnesota, Singer last only 3.2 giving up 3 at Cleveland. 6 outs, that's all I need. Please give me the 6 outs without a run.

NRFI - Houston Astros at San Francisco Giants (-128)

Ronel Blanco for the Astros, after 9 starts allowing 2 or fewer runs Blanco has given up 4 runs in back-to-back starts against Minnesota and St. Louis. YTD numbers are still really good with a 2.78 ERA, 1.05 WHIP. Road ERA of 2.08, Giants have the 4^th highest NRFI % this year. Jordan Hicks tonight for San Francisco, 2.82 ERA, 1.19 WHIP on the season. 13 starts, 4 runs allowed in the 1st. That's good enough for me.

NRFI - Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners (-138)

I'm doing it again. Rookie debut for Drew Thorpe, #3 prospect in the White Sox system. 1.35 ERA over 60 innings this year in AA. Seattle ranks 24^th in OPS vs. righties so that should help the young 23-year-old. Bryan Woo for the Mariners, 1.07 ERA, 0.53 WHIP after 6 starts. 6 starts, 0 runs allowed, only 1 hit. He's facing the White Sox, sign me up!

NRFI - Chicago Cubs at Tampa Bay Rays (-125)

Rays rank 28^th in OPS vs. righties, Jameson Taillon goes for the Cubs with a 3.47 ERA. Taillon started the year strong but has now given up 3 or more runs in 5 straight starts. Roughed up last out by the White Sox of all teams, I'm hoping he can find he stuff again at the Trop. 9 starts, 3 runs allowed in the 1st. Zach Eflin makes his 2^nd start since returning from the shelf, 4.14 ERA, 1.14 WHIP on the season. The Cubs rank 27^th in OPS since May 1st. Let's give it a shot.

@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Wednesday:

NRFI - Braves/Orioles (-130)

I know some of you may be thinking that these two teams are so solid hitting, why would you bet a NRFI? Well, we have said it numerous times on the podcast that we will take good pitching over good hitting any time we want to bet a NRFI, and that's exactly what we have here. The Braves have Max Fried on the mound with a 6-2 record and a 2.93 ERA. He has dominated the Orioles in years past, as Orioles hitters are a combined .163 average against him with only 3 runs scored in 43 ABs. Meanwhile the Orioles have Albert Suarez on the mound with a 2-0 record and a 1.83 ERA. He has only faced one Braves hitter, who only had one AB against him. This is a new pitcher that the Braves will need time to figure out. Good pitching here will hopefully lead to 0 runs in the first inning.

YRFI - Philles/Red Sox (+105)

The Phillies are the top team in baseball in terms of runs in the first innings with 0.75 runs in the first inning. They are also the third best team in baseball at hitting a YRFI, hitting at a 37% clip. Although they are facing a pitcher that no one in the lineup has faced in Kutter Crawford, I like the chances for a run here. Meanwhile the Phillies have Zach Wheeler on the mound and the Red Sox have been solid off of him, hitting a combined .327 average with 6 runs in 55 ABs. Solid YRFI team and a solid lifetime hitting team sounds like a YRFI to me.

NRFI - Pirates/Cardinals (-145)

Mr. Action Junkie got me on this train of betting NRFIs when Paul Skenes is on the mound. I am glad I have followed suit because he has been super solid in the first inning of all of his outings. I like his odds against the Cardinals here, who only hit YURFIs at a 21.9% clip, the 7th worst in baseball. Meanwhile the Pirates are slightly worse than the Cardinals at hitting a YRFI, only doing so at a 21.54% clip. I like two bad first inning teams going at it with solid pitchers starting, so let's hope for a quick inning.

YRFI - Rockies/Twins (-105)

We have talked all year about good pitching leading to NRFIs, but this game is the opposite, as we have some bad pitchers in this game. The Rockies have Cal Quantrill on the bound with a 5-4 record and a 3.58 ERA. Twins hitters have gotten 8 runs off of him in 93 AB's, so not great numbers but top four batters are hitting over .300 against him lifetime. The Twins are starting Louie Varland. He has really struggled as he has an above 5 ERA on AAA and an above 9 ERA in the majors. He has not found his groove yet. Two bad pitchers in this game sounds like a YRFI is definitely possible here.

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Mon, 10 Jun 2024 11:22:06 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 96-71, 57.5%, up 7.7885 units

@KotaCapperKyle 43-43, 50.0%, down 5.73 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Monday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays (-130)

Let's take the easy part of this equation. The Rays rank 28^th in OPS vs. righties, Corbin Burnes has a 2.26 ERA for Baltimore. He's given up 1 run in 4 of his last 5 starts. If the Rays score in the 1st, I'll tip my cap. Baltimore sticks will always scare me, 5^th best in OPS vs. righties, highest scoring team in baseball with 5.17 runs per game. Ryan Pepiot gets the call for Tampa Bay, 3.96 ERA, 0.96 WHIP. Home and 1^st inning splits are not the best, still I like the WHIP, I like the .185 BA against. I'm going to risk it.

NRFI - Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners (-158)

Both teams are Top 10 in NRFI % this season, the ballpark is a pitcher friendly park. Logan Gilbert goes for Seattle, 3.12 ERA, 0.98 WHIP. Erick Fedde gets the call for the White Sox, 3.27 ERA, 13 starts allowing just 2 runs in the first. Not a fan of his 5.70 ERA on the road, I'll look past that to bet this NRFI.

NRFI - Toronto Blue Jays at Milwaukee Brewers (-122)

Let's talk about what scares me. Brewers rank 2^nd in OPS vs. righties. The Blue Jays recently ended a 29-game streak of not scoring in the first inning, things tend to even out over a long season. Jose Berrios has a 3.76 ERA on the road, 4.15 ERA in the 1^st inning for the Blue Jays. Colin Rea has an 8.10 ERA in the first inning this season. On the positive side, three straight good starts from Rea lowering his ERA from 4.07 to 3.53. Berrios has a 2.80 ERA on the season, he's given up 2 or fewer runs in 11 of 13 starts.

NRFI - New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals (-125)

Let's talk about what scares me. The Yankees are the #1 YRFI team, Royals are #4 plus both teams are in the Top 6 for runs scored per game this year. The Yankees are #1 in OPS vs. righties, Royals are #8 vs. lefties. Still, I have Seth Lugo with a 2.13 ERA for the Royals looking to bounce back from his worst start of the season. Carlos Rodon will toe the rubber for the Yankees, 3.08 ERA, 2.77 ERA in the first inning. I always lean good pitching; I have good pitching today. NRFI it is.

@KotaCapperKyle Play for Monday:

NRFI - Orioles at Rays (-155)

Yes, this is a ton of juice to drink, but it's well worth it. Corbin Burnes is on the mount for the Orioles with a 6-2 record and a 2.26 ERA. Only four Rays batters have faced Burnes, and they are only batting .200 against him lifetime. The Rays are starting Ryan Pepiot, who is 4-2 with a 3.96 ERA. No Orioles batters have ever faced off against him, and I've always said that facing a pitcher for the first time is a learning experience. A really solid pitcher and a brand new pitcher sounds like a NRFI to me.

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Sun, 09 Jun 2024 11:40:40 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 95-67, 58.6%, up 11.0742 units

@KotaCapperKyle 43-43, 50.0%, down 5.73 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Sunday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - Minnesota Twins at Pittsburgh Pirates (-115)

Twins have yet to score a run in Pittsburgh, 0 for 18 innings. I'm hoping that Jared Jones can stretch that to 19 today. Jones went 6 innings without giving up a run against the Dodgers last out, 3.25 ERA, 1.01 WHIP. Bailey Ober gets the call for Minnesota, 4.94 ERA, 1.13 WHIP on the season. Ober had a stretch this number giving 2 or fewer runs in 6 of 7 starts, Pirates rank 29^th in OPS vs. righties. I'll give it a shot.

NRFI - Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds (-110)

Not my favorite park for a NRFI, still willing to risk it with Shota Imanaga on the bump for the Cubbies. 1.88 ERA on the season, only 2 first inning runs allowed this season in 11 starts. Frankie Montas gets the call for the Reds, flirted with a no-no into the 7^th at Colorado, 7 shutout innings last out. Home ERA is better than is road, day ERA better than his night. Let's do it.

NRFI - Milwaukee Brewers at Detroit Tigers (-125)

Tarik Skubal Day for the Tigers, love his numbers plus the Brewers numbers aren't nearly as good against lefties as righties. Bryse Wilson is on the bump for the Brew Crew, 3.35 ERA, 1.23 ERA in the 1^st inning this year. Tigers rank 22^nd in 1^st inning runs scored, NRFI it is.

NRFI - Seattle Mariners at Kansas City Royals (-130)

No shortage of runs in this series, 10-9 in the opener, 8-4 on Saturday. Cole Ragans for the Royals, 13 starts with 4 runs allowed in the 1st, solid 3.21 ERA on the year. Mariners rank 21^st in OPS vs. lefties. George Kirby for Seattle, 4.05 ERA on the year, Royals are hitting a career .260 against him over 50 AB's. Nothing will be easy, hoping for 6 outs without a mark in the 1st.

NRFI - Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Yankees (-140)

I'm going to play with fire considering the power at the top of these lineups. The Yankees rank #1 in YRFI bets, Dodgers rank #2 in YRFI bets. Yankee sticks are a career 20 for 103 vs. Tyler Glasnow, .194 BA against. Glasnow has a 2.93 ERA and 0.90 WHIP on the season. Luis Gil goes for the Yankees, 1.82 ERA, 0.92 WHIP. Gil has a 1.05 ERA at home, 1.50 ERA in the 1^st inning. I always like good pitching over good hitting. I can't pass up a pair of sub-1 WHIPs on the hill.

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Fri, 07 Jun 2024 11:40:40 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 94-66, 58.8%, up 11.3335 units

@KotaCapperKyle 43-43, 50.0%, down 5.73 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Friday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - Minnesota Twins at Pittsburgh Pirates (-135)

Twins are done with the Yankees, hip hip hooray. Joe Ryan goes for the Twins, 3.38 ERA, 2.48 ERA on the road, struggled last out allowing 5 runs over 5 innings at Houston. Good news, Pirates rank 29^th in OPS vs. righties. Mitch Keller is on the bump for the Bucs, 3.42 ERA this season compared to a 4.55 career ERA. 1.30 ERA in May, he's given up just 5 runs over his last 5 starts.

NRFI - Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox (-140)

White Sox have lost 14 straight games, craziness. Garrett Crochet is on the bump attempting to stop the bleeding for the White Sox, 3.49 ERA, 0.93 WHIP. 2.50 ERA at home. 0.93 ERA in May, he's given up just 4 runs over his last 6 starts. Red Sox rank 15^th in OPS vs. lefties so I think the White Sox have a fighting chance tonight. Cooper Criswell goes for the Red Sox, 3.92 ERA on the season. The White Sox hitting splits will always make the NRFI look good. NRFI it is.

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Thu, 06 Jun 2024 11:40:40 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 92-65, 58.6%, up 10.7507 units

@KotaCapperKyle 43-43, 50.0%, down 5.73 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Thursday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians (-118)

This NRFI got even better in my eyes after the rainout on Wednesday. Brady Singer is still on the bump for Royals with his 2.63 ERA and 0.82 1^st inning ERA. Tanner Bibee gets the call for Cleveland, 3.74 ERA on the season, excellent 1^st inning numbers allowing only 2 runs in 12 starts. Let's get 6 without a mark at Progressive Field.

NRFI - Colorado Rockies at St. Louis Cardinals (-136)

Sonny Gray looks to bounce back for the Cardinals after struggling in Philadelphia last out, Gray is 4-1 at home, 0.93 ERA with a 0.79 WHIP. Cal Quantrill had his good early season derail last out giving up 4 over 4.1 innings at the LA Dodgers. Quantrill had a 1.71 ERA in May. Cardinal hitters are 5 for 28 lifetime against Quantrill. I was leaning Cardinals RL in the F5, decided on the NRFI in the end.

NRFI - Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics (-118)

Bryan Woo for Seattle, JP Sears for Oakland. Woo is 2-0 over 5 starts with a 1.30 ERA, he has yet to allow a hit or a run in the opening frame this year. As most of you know by now, I'm a bigger JP Sears fan than most. 3.38 ERA at home, 3.41 ERA in May, 3.00 ERA in the 1st. Mariner hitters are a career 11 for 54 off Sears, .204 BA. Mariners rank 23^rd vs. Lefties, Athletics rank 21^st against righties. Teams rank 26^th & 28^th in 1^st inning runs. Let's do it.

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Wed, 05 Jun 2024 11:40:40 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 90-63, 58.8%, up 11.0657 units

@KotaCapperKyle 42-43, 49.4%, down 6.73 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Wednesday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians (-111)

Brady Singer goes for the Royals, 2.63 ERA, 1.12 WHIP. Excellent 1^st inning numbers allowing just 1 run and 4 hits over 11 starts. Cleveland is expected to use an opener, likely Nick Sandlin. 29 games, 26 innings, 2.77 ERA, 0.77 WHIP. That's good enough for me.

NRFI - Los Angeles Dodgers at Pittsburgh Pirates (-113)

1-0 pitcher's duel last night between Glasnow and Jones, tonight we got 5-0 James Paxton vs. 2-0 rookie Paul Skenes. Paxton has a 3.29 ERA for the Dodgers, 3.08 ERA in May. Pirates rank 22^nd in 1^st inning runs scored this season. Skenes will make his 5^th MLB start, 2.45 ERA, 0.91 WHIP so far. The Dodgers have the 2^nd best YRFI % this year, but Skenes has been nasty in the 1^st striking out 8 of his 12 outs.

NRFI - Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins (-106)

My lone NRFI loser on Tuesday, I'm back for more. Zach Elfin will toe the rubber for the Rays, he's been on the shelf since May 18th. 4.12 ERA on the season with a 1.17 WHIP. Marlins rank 22^nd in OPS vs. righties so I'll risk it. Braxton Garrett is on the bump for Miami, 2 bad starts to start his season followed by 2 good starts. Last 2 against Arizona and San Diego, 14 innings allowing 1 run. Let's get 6 without a run tonight.

NRFI - Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays (-125)

Jose Berrios for the Blue Jays, 2.78 ERA, 1.60 ERA at home. Gave up 3 hits over 7 innings in his first start this season against Baltimore. Albert Suarez gets the call for Baltimore, 1.57 ERA, 0.99 WHIP over 34.1 innings. 5 starts, 5 starts without allowing a run in the 1st. Let's try for 6 tonight.

NRFI - Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs (-110)

Jameson Taillon for the Cubbies, 2.84 ERA. The White Sox are still B5 in most every offensive stat. I'm good with the top half. Erick Fedde for the South Siders, 3.12 ERA, good 1^st inning numbers allowing 2 runs in 12 starts. Let's hope the wind blows my way again tonight at Wrigley.

@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Wednesday:

NRFI: Dodgers/Pirates (-110)

Paul Skenes has been sensational in the first inning in his games that he has played recording 8 K's in 9 outs. I expect him to have that same sort of production again. Meanwhile the Dodgers have James Paxton on the mound who has been solid this season with a 5-0 record and a 2.45 ERA. Both of these pitchers have been solid, and a -110 line is a ton of value here. Let's capitalize on that.

NRFI: Royals/Guardians (-115)

We got two pitchers battling it out with a 2.66 ERA and a 2.77 ERA. These two teams are solid in the first inning, without a doubt. However, we've said numerous times when it comes to first inning plays, good pitching usually is more trustworthy than good hitting. Both Brady Singer and Nick Samson have had great seasons, so let's root for them to be solid in the first inning. Three up and three down.

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Tue, 04 Jun 2024 11:40:40 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 86-62, 58.1%, up 8.6839 units

@KotaCapperKyle 42-43, 49.4%, down 6.73 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Tuesday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians (-113)

Triston McKenzie gets the call for the Guardians, 3.31 ERA at home, 3.06 ERA in May, 3.27 ERA in the 1st. After giving up 2 or fewer runs in 6 straight games, last 2 he has given up 3 to the Mets and 4 to the Rockies. Bounce back spot against a team that is 6 for 47 against him, .128 BA. Seth Lugo goes for Kansas City, special season in the making with a 9-1 record, 1.72 ERA, 0.86 ERA on the road, 1 inning allowed in the 1^st over 12 starts. Can't pass up numbers like that.

NRFI - Los Angeles Dodgers at Pittsburgh Pirates (-132)

Another big test for Pirates rookie Jared Jones, 3.55 ERA, 1.01 WHIP on the season. 2.32 ERA at home, 2.45 ERA in the 1^st inning. Tyler Glasnow will toe the rubber for the Dodgers, 3.04 ERA, 0.91 WHIP. Glasnow has a 1.69 ERA away from home, 2.25 ERA in the 1^st inning. It was Dodgers run line or NRFI, I'm going NRFI.

NRFI - Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins (-130)

Jesus Luzardo time for the Marlins, 3.09 ERA at home, 1.75 ERA in May, 2.00 ERA in the 1^st inning this year. Ryan Pepiot gets the ball for Tampa Bay, 3.88 ERA, 0.95 WHIP. 12 scoreless innings pitched on the road this season. I'll gladly take my chances with these two on the bump.

NRFI - San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Angels (-115)

Out with the old, in with the new. I'm going to back a rookie in his MLB debut. 23-year-old Adam Mazur makes his debut tonight for the Padres. He's the #5 prospect in the Padres system, 1.95 ERA in AA this year over 32.1 innings, 7.11 ERA in AAA this year over 19 innings. I'm going to trust the judgement of the Padres organization, if they think he's ready, I'm willing to back him. I do like the fact that he's walked just 9 batters over 51.1 innings pitched. Patrick Sandoval goes for the Angels; no pitching split justifies backing him. 5.34 ERA, 6.32 ERA at home, 5.25 in the 1st. But the Padres rank 25^th in OPS vs. lefties and Sandoval had good starts against Pittsburgh, Texas, and the New York Yankees in May tossing 19 innings giving up just 3 runs. I'll look for that type of stuff again tonight.

NRFI - Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs (-115)

Shota Imanaga goes for the Cubs; he burned me last time out allowed 7 runs over 4.1 innings at Milwaukee. Great YTD numbers, 1.86 ERA, 1.20 ERA at Wrigley, and he's allowed only 2 first inning runs in 10 starts. Chris Flexen gets the call for the White Sox, 5.50 ERA, but his early innings numbers are excellent allowing just 1 run in the 1^st inning over 10 starts. Cubs are 20^th in OPS vs. righties. Let's get 6 without a run.

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Mon, 03 Jun 2024 11:40:40 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 85-59, 59.0%, up 10.8839 units

@KotaCapperKyle 42-43, 49.4%, down 6.73 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Monday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers (-156)

By first pitch, this might close as the most expensive NRFI of the year. Reminder, always double check the price on the first inning result. Some books will have the tie after 1 inning cheaper than the NRFI. Not only can you potentially get a cheaper price, but you can also win on a 1-1, 2-2 type first inning. Tarik Skubal for the Tigers, 2.01 ERA, 0.82 WHIP. He's an automatic play for me. Nathan Eovaldi will toe the rubber for the Rangers in his 2^nd start back from the injured list, 2.84 ERA, 1.20 WHIP. 2.08 ERA at home, 8 starts, 2 runs allowed in the first. That's good enough for me.

NRFI - San Diego Padres at LA Angels (-110)

Tyler Anderson is on the bump for the Angels, 2.47 ERA, 1.13 WHIP on the season. Good splits, solid 1^st inning numbers giving up just 3 runs in 11 starts. The Padres rank 25^th in OPS vs. lefties so that's an added bonus. Meanwhile the Angels will face knuckleballer Matt Waldron for the first time, Waldon is 3-5 on the year with a 4.26 ERA. Last 4 starts, 23 innings allowing just 5 runs. LA ranks 22^nd in OPS vs. righties. Let's get 6 without a run.

NRFI - New York Mets at Washington Nationals (-125)

Tylor Megill goes for the Mets, 1.69 ERA over 3 starts this year. 0.64 ERA in 4 rehab starts this year. Nationals rank 23^rd in OPS vs. righties. MacKenzie Gore is showing why he was the #3 pick in 2017, 2.91 ERA on the season and a 2.60 ERA in May. 11 starts allowing just 1 run in the opening frame. Mets rank 15^th in OPS vs. lefties. Mets rank 19^th in runs scored in the 1st, Washington ranks 30th. The Nationals have the highest NRFI % in baseball this season. Let's get another one home tonight.

NRFI - St. Louis Cardinals at Houston Astros (-110)

Kyle Gibson and Justin Verlander will do battle tonight in Houston. I can probably make a stronger case for the YRFI or over in the first 5. Astros rank 5^th in OPS vs. righties, Cardinals rank 12th. Verlander has a 4.63 ERA at home, Astros sticks have 7 homers off Gibson, .265 BA over 151 AB's. Gibson has a 7.36 ERA in the 1^st inning. That's the bad. Gibson also has 2.90 ERA on the road, Verlander has been really good in 3 of his last 4 starts, opponents are hitting just .209 against him in the first AB. The Cardinals have the 4^th highest NRFI % this year, I'm hoping for another one tonight.

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Sun, 02 Jun 2024 02:40:40 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 84-58, 59.2%, up 11.0839 units

@KotaCapperKyle 42-43, 49.4%, down 6.73 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Sunday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - New York Yankees at San Francisco Giants (-115)

Yankees hit Logan Webb hard on Saturday, now they get to face the struggling Blake Snell. The defending Cy Young winner is 0-3 with a 10.42 ERA and 2.00 WHIP. He's given up 3 or more runs in all 5 starts and has yet to get out of the 5th. Still, he's the defending Cy Young winner and flipped a switch last year after a slow start. The Yankees rank 16^th in OPS vs. lefties compared to #1 vs. righties so that gives me hope. Nestor Cortes goes for the Yankees, 3.30 ERA, 1.06 WHIP on the season. 2.48 ERA in May with 3 straight starts giving up 2 or fewer runs. Don't look at his road or first inning splits, they don't look good. Cortes is starting to find that 2021 and 2022 magic, I'll roll the dice on the NRFI.

NRFI: LA Angels at Seattle Mariners (-125)

Griffin Canning for the Angels, Luis Castillo for the Mariners. Angels are hitting a career .203 vs. Castillo, Mariners are hitting a career .238 against Canning. Canning has a 5.08 ERA on the season, 2.60 ERA in May. Castillo was a 3.28 ERA on the season. Both teams have been good NRFI teams most of the year, hopefully that trend continues today.

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Sat, 01 Jun 2024 11:40:40 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 84-56, 60.0%, up 13.0839 units

@KotaCapperKyle 41-42, 49.4%, down 6.43 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Saturday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies (-125)

Ranger Suarez goes for the Phillies, 1.75 ERA, 0.82 WHIP on the season and we get him in a bounce back spot after his worst start of the season giving up 5 runs at Colorado. Sonny Gray gets the call for Philadelphia, 2.60 ERA, 1.00 WHIP. Road splits concern me, 4.70 ERA allowing 4 or more runs in his last 3 road starts. Faced the Phillies to open the season, 5 innings, 0 runs allowed. I think we can get 6 without a run in this one.

NRFI - Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros (-122)

Framber Valdez will toe the rubber for the Astros, 2 good starts in May, 3 not so good starts. 4.34 ERA on the season, 1.34 WHIP. Valdez has good lifetime numbers against the Twins, however the Twins hit him hard last year in the playoffs. I'm guessing Valdez will be looking for a little payback today. Astros are slumping, they need him to be a stopper. Joe Ryan goes for Minnesota, 2.96 ERA, 0.94 WHIP on the season. 1.44 ERA away from home, 2.51 ERA in May. Ryan is almost always on my card; I like this guy. Let's cash.

@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Saturday (dropped in the newsletter)

NRFI - White Sox/Brewers (-140)

NRFI - Cardinals/Phillies (-130)

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Fri, 31 May 2024 11:40:40 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 81-55, 59.6%, up 11.7596 units

@KotaCapperKyle 39-42, 48.1%, down 8.43 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Friday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - Oakland Athletics at Atlanta Braves (-111)

JP Sears gets the call for Oakland, 3.88 ERA on the season, 2.96 ERA in May. Good 1^st Inning numbers for Sears allowing 3 runs in 11 starts this year. Good numbers against the Braves allowing just 4 hits in 29 AB's. Reynaldo Lopez is on the bump for the Braves, I think. 1.75 ERA, 1.34 ERA in night games, 1.21 ERA at home. 9 starts, 0 runs allowed in the 1st.

NRFI - San Diego Padres at Kansas City Royals (-122)

Dylan Cease goes for San Diego, 1.82 ERA on April 22nd, since that time he has allowed 3 or more runs in 4 of 6 starts including his last 3. His ERA is now 3.29, road ERA is 2.45. Cease has pitched at Kaufman many times in the past during his White Sox days with some success. Michael Wacha gets the start for KC against his former team, 4.31 ERA on the season, nothing special but he has allowed just 3 runs in the 1^st over 11 starts. Little extra juice expected against his former team.

NRFI - Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros (-122)

Ronel Blanco gets the ball for Houston, 1.99 ERA, 1.01 WHIP on the season. Strong effort in his first game back going 7 innings at Oakland allowing 1 run on 4 hits. 1.88 ERA at home, first inning numbers are not as good allowing 5 runs over 9 starts in the opening frame. Pablo Lopez continues to disappoint for Minnesota, 5.25 ERA on the year, 6.00 ERA on the road, 5.72 ERA in May, 4.09 ERA in the first. I continue to expect a better version of Lopez to show, hopefully he can lift the spirits of a depressed Minnesota sports fan tonight.

NRFI - New York Yankees at San Francisco Giants (-146)

Jordan Hicks will toe the rubber for the Giants, 2.33 ERA, 1.09 WHIP on the year. 1.85 ERA at home, just 3 runs allowed in the 1^st over 11 starts. Marcus Stroman is on the bump for the Yankees, 2.76 ERA, 1.24 WHIP this year. Excellent numbers on the road with a 1.98 ERA, 1.78 ERA in May, 1^st inning numbers are solid allowing 4 runs in 11 starts.

@KotaCapperKyle's Plays for Friday: (dropped in the newsletter)

NRFI - Twins/Astros (-125)

Soe of you may look at this play and think that I'm an idiot! The Astros are hitting YRFIs at a 32% clip and the Twins at a 30% clip, both in the top half of baseball. Well, the Astros have Ronel Blanco on the mound who's pitched phenomenal thus far this season with a 5-0 record and a 1.99 ERA. It's not a hot take to think that the Twins will struggle early. Meanwhile, the Twins have Pablo Lopez on the bump, and he hasn't been his true self this year, but Astros hitters have struggled against him lifetime. Let's hope for a quick first inning here.

NRFI - Padres/Royals (-130)

Although both of these pitchers would like to have better seasons thus far, these teams have struggled against them lifetime. The Padres are bringing out Dyland Cease, and the Royals batters are .286 against him lifetime. The Royals are bringing out Michael Wacha, and the Padres are .181 against him lifetime. Not great numbers from either of these two teams. Just need a quick inning here, since I wouldn't be surprised if the full game goes over. Three up, three down both ways. That's all we need.

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Thu, 30 May 2024 11:40:40 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 80-55, 59.3%, up 10.89 units

@KotaCapperKyle 39-42, 48.1%, down 8.43 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Play for Thursday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves (-115)

Trevor Williams gets the call for the Nationals, 2.29 ERA on the season, 1.85 ERA in May, 1.42 ERA at night. 2 runs allowed in the 1^st inning over 10 starts. Braves rank 18^th scoring 0.44 runs per game in the 1st. Reynaldo Lopez is on the bump for the Braves, 1.75 ERA, 1.34 ERA in night games, 1.21 ERA at home. 9 starts, 0 runs allowed in the 1st. Nationals rank 29^th scoring 0.26 runs per game in the 1st. UPDATE: Sounds like Lopez will no longer be the starter for Atlanta today.

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Wed, 29 May 2024 11:40:40 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 76-53, 58.9%, up 9.7771 units

@KotaCapperKyle 39-42, 48.1%, down 8.43 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Wednesday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers - GM1 (-165)

Both KotaCapperKyle and I had the NRFI yesterday before this one was postponed. No reason for me to backoff the play, Jared Jones goes for the Pirates, 1 first inning run allowed over 10 starts. Tarik Skubal for the Tigers, I would back him against the Big Red Machine from the 70's, that's how much I believe in him.

NRFI - Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles (-128)

Corbin Burnes for Baltimore, 2.60 ERA, 2.67 ERA in May, and a 1.99 ERA at home. I'm good with those numbers. Kutter Crawford gets the call for the Red Sox, 2.89 ERA, 1.59 ERA on the road this season. 4 runs allowed in the first inning over 11 starts. Need 6 outs without a run, fingers crossed.

NRFI - Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers (-120)

Shota Imanaga for the Cubs, he's an automatic play at this point with a lower ERA than WHIP. Bryse Wilson is on the bump for the Brewers, 2.86 ERA, 1.16 WHIP. 2.70 ERA in May, 2.50 ERA at home, plus he's only given up 1 first inning run this season over 6 starts. Cubs are a career 15 for 60 against Wilson, .250 BA. I'll run with it.

NRFI - Kansas City Royals at Minnesota (-132)

It was Easter Sunday; I was watching the game at my in-laws. I was telling everyone how excited I was to watch Bailey Ober pitch after his strong finish last season. 30 minutes later, Ober was done. 1.1 innings pitched, 8 runs, 9 hits, 3 homers, and a walk. That's the past, I'm expecting Ober to quickly erase those bad memories. Seth Lugo gets the call for Kansas City, 8-1 record, 1.74 ERA, 0.97 WHIP. How about 5-0 on the road, 0.75 ERA, 0.69 WHIP? 11 starts, 1 run allowed in the 1st. I'm sold.

NRFI - New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels (-120)

Tyler Anderson vs. Luis Gil. The Yankees are kicking my butt with these NRFI's, Tyler Anderson goes for the Angels with his 2.52 ERA. He's a lefty. The Yankees are #1 in OPS vs. righties, #14 vs. lefties so I have hope. Luis Gil will toe the rubber for the Yankees, 2 runs allowed in the 1^st over 10 starts, 2.11 ERA on the season. Angels rank 16^th in OPS vs. righties. Lose tonight and you can just call me Chevy Chase from Vegas Vacation.

NRFI - Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners (-135)

George Kirby on the hill for Seattle, 2.97 ERA at home, Houston is a career 15 for 90 against him, .167 BA. Justin Verlander for the Astros, 3.60 ERA on the season, 3.18 ERA on the road, Seattle hitters are a career .245 against him. That's enough for me.

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Tue, 28 May 2024 11:40:40 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 76-52, 59.4%, up 10.7771 units

@KotaCapperKyle 38-42, 47.5%, down 9.43 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Tuesday (dropped in the newsletter)

NRFI - Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles (-110)

Grayson Rodriguez has a 3.20 ERA, 1.64 ERA in May, 1.14 ERA at home for the O's. That works for me. Brayan Bello is on the bump for Boston, 4.04 ERA, splits are mixed. 1^st inning numbers are solid allowing just 2 runs over 8 innings. Bello pitched 5 really good innings, 1 bad last out at Tampa. I like his stuff, I'll risk it.

NRFI - Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers (-165)

Terrible, terrible, terrible price. I only risk a unit so I will drink the juice. Tarik Skubal is an automatic for me when pitching. I normally dislike rookie pitchers, but the Pirates have a couple exceptions to the rule. Jared Jones has given up just 1 run in the 1^st inning over 10 starts. Tigers rank 22^nd in 1^st inning runs scored, let's go NRFI.

@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Tuesday (dropped on the podcast)

Yankees/Angels YRFI (-125):

The Yankees have been absolutely dominant in the first inning this year, hitting a YRFI 38% of the time (3rd in MLB). Aaron Judge has absolutely destroyed NRFIs all season long, and he has a home run against Griffin Canning already in his career, and he is starting for the Angels. Meanwhile four batters in the Angels lineup are batting above .300 against Nestor Cortez lifetime, and he is starting for the Yankees. All this seems to mean at least one run scores early.

Pirates/Tigers NRFI (-150):

Tarik Skubal is on the mound for the Tigers. He is the real deal, and he has shown it this season with a 6-1 record, 2.25 ERA, and 75 Ks to 10 BBs. Meanwhile the Pirates have rookie Jared Jones on the mound, and he has been very impressive as well. With a 3-4 record, a 3.05 ERA and 68 Ks to 10 BBs, you really cannot complain about his numbers. With a solid pitcher like Skubal on the mound and a new pitcher that the Tigers have never seen, this seems like a NRFI to me

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Mon, 27 May 2024 11:40:40 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 74-52, 58.7%, up 9.0347 units

@KotaCapperKyle 37-41, 47.4%, down 9.33 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Monday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins (-120)

Joe Ryan has excellent career numbers against KC, Royals are hitting a career .150 against him. Ryan has a 3.15 ERA this year, 2.84 ERA in May for the Twinkies. Alex March goes for the Royals, 2.72 ERA on the season, 2.82 ERA on the road, 2.76 ERA in May. Numbers are NRFI worthy for both so let's do it.

NRFI - Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles (-110)

Cole Irvin will toe the rubber for the Baltimore, 3.15 ERA on the season, 2.96 ERA at home, 2.60 ERA in May, and a 1.42 ERA in day games. Cherry on top, 0 runs allowed in the first inning over 7 starts. Cooper Criswell goes for Boston, 2.86 ERA on the season, 1.84 ERA on the road, 2 runs allowed in the 1^st over 7 starts. O's sticks scare me, still going NRFI.

@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Monday

NRFI - Red Sox/Orioles (+100)

I saw this play at plus money and wondered why that would be. The Orioles are only hitting a YRFI 21.5% of the games that they have played in. They are also facing a starting pitcher that they have never gone up against in Cooper Criswell. Although the Red Sox are on the better YRFI teams in baseball, hitting at a 32% clip, they are going up against a solid pitcher in Cole Irvin. Some Red Sox batters have done decent against Irvin, but they all bat lower in the lineup. Great opportunity to cash on a plus money play that could very well hit.

NRFI - Nationals/Braves (-110)

Washington is the worst team in baseball when it comes to hitting a YRFI, hitting at only a 13.73% clip. This lineup has also mightily struggled against Charlie Morton, going a combined .206 against him lifetime. Meanwhile, the Braves just took a gut punch to their lineup with Ronald Acuna Jr. tearing his ACL. The top of this lineup will struggle because of that. They are going up against a rookie pitcher in Mitchell Parker, who has had a decent start to his rookie year with a 3-2 record and a 3.32 ERA. With a new starting pitcher going up against a deteriorating Braves lineup, as well as a team that is significantly bad at getting a run in the first inning, that all sounds like a NRFI to me.

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Sun, 26 May 2024 11:40:40 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 72-52, 58.1%, up 7.4534 units

@KotaCapperKyle 37-41, 47.4%, down 9.33 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Sunday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - San Francisco Giants at New York Mets (-128)

Former Giant, Sean Manaea will toe the rubber for the Mets. 3.11 ERA on the season, good 1^st inning numbers allowing 1 run over 9 starts. Logan Webb goes for San Francisco, always a little dicey to back Webb away from home but the righty did toss 6 innings giving up only 2 at Pittsburgh earlier this week. 3.13 ERA in May, 2.25 ERA in day games, good number the first trip down the lineup card. Let's see if the other New York team burns me today.

NRFI - Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals (-125)

Sonny Gray goes for the Cardinals, 2.87 ERA, 1.04 WHIP. 1.13 ERA at home over 24 innings. I'll take that. Javier Assad gets the call for the Cubs, 1.70 ERA, 1.11 WHIP on the season. St. Louis ranks 24^th in 1^st inning runs scored, Chicago ranks 22^nd in OPS vs. righties. NRFI it is.

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Sat, 25 May 2024 11:40:40 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 71-50, 58.7%, up 8.5838 units

@KotaCapperKyle 37-41, 47.4%, down 9.33 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Saturday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - Toronto Blue Jays at Detroit Tigers (-130)

Jose Berrios on the bump for the Blue Jays, 2.98 ERA, 1.11 WHIP on the season. Road and recent numbers are not as good, I'm going to look past that since Detroit ranks 23^rd in 1^st inning runs scored. Reese Olson goes for the Tigers, 0-5 record, 2.16 ERA, 1.06 WHIP. Needless to say, he deserves better. Olson has a 0.84 ERA at home over 21.1 innings, 0.83 ERA in May, and he's given up 0 runs in the 1^st inning over 9 starts allowing just 3 hits. Dream NRFI, let's see if it cashes.

NRFI - Seattle Mariners at Washington Nationals (-115)

These two teams rank 28^th and 30^th in 1^st inning runs scored. That's a good start to a NRFI. Logan Gilbert goes for Seattle, 3.20 ERA on the season with a 1.01 WHIP. No issue with those numbers. Road, May, and 1^st inning splits concern me, looking past it given his career numbers. Trevor Williams gets the call for the Nationals, 2.35 ERA, 1.09 WHIP. 1.65 ERA at home, 1.86 ERA in May, only 2 runs allowed in the 1^st after 9 starts. I'm sold!

NRFI - New York Yankees at San Diego Padres (-120)

Let's do it again. Dylan Cease for the Padres, 3.05 ERA, 0.93 WHIP. Marcus Stroman for the Yankees, 3.05 ERA, 1.30 WHIP. 2.53 ERA on the road for Stroman, 2.22 ERA in May. Fingers crossed. I need 6 outs without a run.

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Fri, 24 May 2024 11:40:40 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 71-49, 59.2%, up 9.5838 units

@KotaCapperKyle 36-40, 47.3%, down 9.28 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Friday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals (-115)

If the Cardinals score in the first, they should keep the ball. Scoring runs off Shota Imanaga is not easy, 0.84 ERA, 0.91 WHIP for the lefty. 0.69 ERA in May, 0.38 ERA on the road, 0 runs allowed in the 1^st inning after 9 starts. Heck, he's only given up 2 hits in the 1^st this year. Miles Mikolas goes for the Cardinals, 3.29 ERA in 2022, 4.78 ERA in 2023, 5.77 ERA in 2024. Cubs are a career 40 for 149 against him, .268 BA. Cubs rank 22^nd in OPS vs. righties, 27^th in OPS in May, and rank 27^th in runs scored this month. Fingers crossed Mikolas can get me 3 outs without a run.

NRFI - New York Yankees at San Diego Padres (-122)

Betting Yankee NRFI's is stressful, I would prefer not to do it daily, but the pitching matchups continue to force my hand. Yu Darvish goes for the Padres, 2.08 ERA, 0.90 WHIP on the season. 19 innings pitched in May with 0 runs allowed on 7 hits. 1^st inning this year, 9 innings, 0 runs, 4 hits. I can't pass on numbers like that. Carlos Rodon gets the call for the Yankees, 3.27 ERA, 1.20 WHIP. Rodon splits aren't perfect, but the Padres rank 25^th in OPS vs. lefties. Both teams could make me look like a fool in a hurry, still going NRFI.

@KotaCapperKyle's Plays for Friday

YRFI: Orioles/White Sox (-105)

You all are probably thinking that I must be having a fever betting a YRFI in a White Sox game! Well, as good as these pitchers might be, they have struggled against the other team historically. The Orioles have Corbin Burnes on the mount, and four batters are batting above .300 on him lifetime. Meanwhile the White Sox have Chris Flexen on the bump, and six batters are batting above .300 against him lifetime. The hitting seems to be dominating historically, so let's hope for at least one run in the first inning.

NRFI: Brewers/Red Sox (-110)

There is a lot of value on this NRFI, as both pitchers are allowing less than 3 runs per game. These teams have also not seen much of these pitchers historically, so there's not a lot of knowledge about either one going into this game. Bryse Wilson is 2-1 with a 2.79 ERA for the Brewers, and Kutter Crawford is 2-1 with a 2.17 ERA for the Red Sox. Good pitching usually leads to NRFIs, so let's hope it happens here.

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Thu, 23 May 2024 11:40:40 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 69-49, 58.5%, up 8.0362 units

@KotaCapperKyle 36-40, 47.3%, down 9.28 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Thursday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees (-120)

Luis Castillo for the Mariners, 2 runs allowed in the 1st over 10 starts. 2.93 ERA on the road, 3.00 ERA in day games. I'll take my chances with him. The other Luis goes for the Yankees, Luis Gil, 2.39 ERA on the season with a 1.08 WHIP. 1.64 ERA at home, 2 runs allowed in the 1st over 9 starts. I bet pitching over hitting. I'll roll the dice again at Yankees Stadium.

NRFI - Toronto Blue Jays at Detroit Tigers (-140)

Jack Flaherty for Detroit, 3.79 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP on the season. Blue Jays rank 23rd in OPS vs. righties, 25th on the road, and rank 24th in 1st inning runs. Detroit ranks 23rd in 1st inning runs, Jays starter Kevin Gausman always seems to be better on the road, 3.06 ERA this year. Both pitchers have had struggles in the 1st, but I'll still back this one in the blind. No line yet, I'll post in the show notes.

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Wed, 22 May 2024 11:40:40 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 67-46, 59.3%, up 9.7055 units

@KotaCapperKyle 34-40, 45.9%, down 11.28 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Wednesday (dropped in the newsletter)

NRFI - New York Mets at Cleveland Guardians (+100)

Why in the world would I back Jose Quintana in a NRFI? 5.21 ERA, 7.13 ERA on the road, 9.69 ERA in May. Ouch! BUT he has given up just 1 run in the first over 9 starts this year, he has a 3.00 ERA in day games, and he was a really good pitcher the last two years. Mets rank 22^nd in 1^st inning runs scored, Triston McKenzie has a 3.23 ERA, 2.97 ERA at home. Worth the risk for me at this price.

NRFI - Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals (-156)

Tarik Skubal is an autoplay for me even with the red-hot sticks for KC. Cole Ragans has a solid 3.70 ERA for the Royals, good 1^st inning numbers allowing just 2 runs over 10 innings plus Detroit ranks 23^rd in 1^st inning runs scored.

NRFI - San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates (-145)

Rehab assignment was a success for Blake Snell. 10 K's, 0 hits allowed over 5 innings in his AAA start. He's back. I normally fade rookies, but I really like Jared Jones. 1.80 ERA at home, 2.37 ERA in May, and only 1 run allowed in the 1^st inning in 9 starts.

NRFI - Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins (-142)

Jesus Luzardo goes for the Marlins, 1.54 ERA since returning. 0 runs allowed in the 1^st over 7 starts this year. Freddy Peralta goes for the Brewers, career 3.86 ERA. Don't focus on his YTD numbers, he's much better than that. Marlins rank 26^th in OPS vs. righties.

NRFI - Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees (-115)

I'm H2H with KotaCapperKyle. The Yankees have burned me many times. I'm going to avoid watching, maybe that will help.

@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Wednesday (dropped on the podcast)

Detroit Tigers/Kansas City Royals NRFI (-130): The Royals are going up against who I would argue is one of the best pitchers in baseball right now in Tarik Skubal with a 6-0 record and a 1.80 ERA. Meanwhile the Royals have Cole Ragans on the mound, who has not been bad this year with a 3-3 record and a 3.70 ERA. These two pitchers have been very solid this year, and I think that the top of these lineups are going to struggle against them.

Seattle Mariners/New York Yankees YRFI (-120): The Yankees lineup has had their way with Seattle Mariners pitcher Bryce Miller. Judge has hit a home run against him in only three ABs, Verdugo is batting .500 against him, Gleybor Torres is batting .667 against him. They are going to have a heyday with Miller in this game, and there’s always a chance of runs at Yankee Stadium for the Mariners.

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Tue, 21 May 2024 11:40:40 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 66-45, 59.5%, up 9.8359 units

@KotaCapperKyle 33-39, 45.8%, down 11.23 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Tuesday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI: San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates (-115)

Logan Webb goes for the Giants; Webb has always been good at home, but this is on the road. He's given up 4 or more runs in 3 of his last 4 road starts. The Pirates rank 26^th in runs scored in May so that should help. Martin Perez is on the bump for the Pirates, 4.86 ERA, 1.50 WHIP this season. Last out he allowed 9 runs in 5 innings against Milwaukee. On the bright side, he's only allowed 1 first inning run in 9 starts. I like that number. I also like that these teams rank 25^th & 26^th in 1^st inning runs scored. Let's run with it.

NRFI: Texas Rangers at Philadelphia Phillies (-115)

The Philadelphia Phillies have scored 109 runs in May, 18 more than the #2 scoring team. Phillies are the #1 scoring team in the 1^st inning averaging 0.90 runs in the 1st. Eyes wide open wager. Ranger Suarez goes for the Phillies. What stat do you like best? 8-0 record in May, 1.37 ERA, 0.76 WHIP? I'll take my chances with him. Jon Gray goes for the Rangers, 2.08 ERA, 1.17 WHIP on the season. 1.74 ERA on the road. Those numbers look good, but he has struggled early in games. I expect better tonight.

@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Tuesday (dropped in the newsletter)

NRFI: Rangers/Phillies (-120)

This play may make folks nervous. The Phillies are the best team in the MLB in the first inning averaging 0.90 runs per game. However, it's been brough up numerous times by Action and I that we will take good pitching over good hitting in the first inning. We have Jon Gray on the mound for the Rangers with a 2-1 record and a 2.08 ERA. Meanwhile, we also have Ranger Suarez for the Phillies with an 8-0 record and a 1.37 ERA. These two pitchers are playing lights out lately, and it's not unusual to look at a NRFI and like it in this matchup.

NRFI: Rockies/Athletics (-105)

This is not as much about the pitching matchup as it is the hitting matchup. Yes, both these pitchers have a high 3 ERA in this game. However, both these teams are not great in the first inning. The A's are averaging only 0.20 per first inning, and the Rockies are only averaging 0.43 runs in the first inning. These two teams have struggled here. Now there's heavy juice in this game on the YRFI because of the ERAs of the pitchers, but I think that the struggle for both of these teams hitting in the first inning is worth the risk for a NRFI here. They can score any other time, but let's keep the first inning clean.

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Mon, 20 May 2024 11:40:40 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 64-43, 59.8%, up 10.297 units

@KotaCapperKyle 33-39, 45.8%, down 11.23 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Monday (dropped on the podcast)

Play 1: NRFI - San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves - Game 1 (-122)

Dylan Cease for the Padres, 1.38 ERA on the road over 32.2 innings. 0.78 WHIP on the season. He's got the good stuff again. Reynaldo Lopez gets the call for the Braves, 1.34 ERA, 1.09 WHIP. 0.77 ERA at home, 0 runs allowed in the first after 7 starts.

Play 2: NRFI - Chicago White Sox at Toronto Blue Jays (-132)

Jose Berrios gets the call for the Blue Jays, check. Nothing more needs to be said on that side. Erick Fedde is on the bump for Chicago, 13 innings with 0 runs allowed in his last couple of starts. 2.60 ERA, 1.06 WHIP on the season. Road numbers are shaky, but his first inning numbers are strong. Let's hope for 6 outs without any damage on Victoria Day in Canada.

Play 3: NRFI - Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees (-130)

Seattle ranks 28^th in 1^st inning runs scored so that should help Marcus Stroman. He gets the call for the Yankees, 3.33 ERA on the season, last out he tossed 6 scoreless innings at Minnesota. I'll hope for a repeat of that tonight. Logan Gilbert goes for Seattle, 3.07 ERA, 0.95 WHIP on the year. That's after allowing 11 runs over 10.2 innings in his last 2 starts against Minnesota & Kansas City. Bounce back time for Gilbert.

Play 4: NRFI - Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinals (-128)

I love Baltimore, I love good pitching over good hitting any more. Sonny Gray goes for the Cardinals. Check the box. Dean Kremer goes for the O's, 3.72 ERA, 1.02 WHIP. Road ERA is good at a 1.88 this year, first inning numbers are great with 8 shutout innings allowing just 1 hit. Sign me up.

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Sat, 18 May 2024 23:40:40 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 63-42, 60.0%, up 10.3879 units

@KotaCapperKyle 33-36, 47.8%, down 7.78 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Play for Sunday (dropped on the podcast, newsletter - LATE ADD)

NRFI: Oakland Athletics at Kansas City Royals (-105)

JP Sears for Oakland, he's given up just 1 run in the first inning this year over 9 starts. Sears has a 3.68 ERA on the road, 2.65 ERA in May, Royals rank 21^st in OPS vs. lefties. Brady Singer goes for KC, 2.84 ERA, 1.11 WHIP. Same as Sears, he's given up just 1 run in the first inning this year over 9 starts. Oakland ranks 22^nd in OPS vs. righties. NRFI it is.

NRFI - Chicago White Sox at New York Yankees (-110)

If you have followed my journey with PJ Washington prop bets, you will understand this bet. If I bet Washington to the under, he goes over. If I don't bet the under, he goes under. Feels like I'm just not allowed to cash a bet on the guy. After reading the frustrating in @KotaCapperKyle's writeup on the White Sox/Yankees NRFIs, it reminded me of myself and PJ Washington props. Kyle is correct, White Sox can't score, 80.43% of the games played have results in the NRFI cashing. The Yankees have the 3^rd highest YRFI rate but they still cash the NRFI 63.83% of the time. Carlos Rodon against his old team, check. I'll play that. Chris Flexen has a 2.41 ERA on the road this year, he's given up 1 run over 7 starts in the 1st. I plan to watch golf in the Bottom of the 1st, I'm nervous to say the least.

@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Sunday

NRFI: Cardinals/Red Sox (+110)

This line seems to be plus money due to Boston's success with YRFIs this season. However, they are playing a team that is one of the best in the league in NRFIs this season in the Cardinals (hitting NRFIs nearly 80% of the time). The Cardinals are also starting Matthew Liberatore, and only one batter on the Red Sox has ever faced him. With a new pitcher for the Red Sox to face and the Cardinals success with NRFIs this season, I'll take the plus money NRFI in this contest.

YRFI: Yankees/White Sox (-125)

I am tired of losing money on the NRFIs for that dang series. The Yankees have the Whtie Sox number especially in the first inning. Well, we now have two pitchers who have struggled against the opposing team in this matchup. Although I don't like betting for the White Sox to score a run in the first inning, I am tired of losing a NRFI on this series, so let's win a first inning bet for this series.

YRFI: Rays/Blue Jays (-120)

This play could go very wrong for me. The Blue Jays are hitting the NRFI in 81.4% of games and the Rays are hitting the NRFI in 71.74% of games. However, both Aaron Civale and Alek Monoah have struggled mightily this season in the EAR department with ERAs of 5.83 and 4.91 respectively. The top of the lineup for these teams have had some success here, so the NRFI streak for these teams can absolutely be broken with two struggling pitchers here.

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Sat, 18 May 2024 11:40:40 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 60-42, 58.8%, up 8.3387 units

@KotaCapperKyle 33-35, 48.5%, down 6.53 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Saturday (dropped on the podcast, newsletter)

NRFI - Detroit Tigers at Arizona Diamondbacks (-140)

Zac Gallen at home for Arizona. No regrets regardless of the outcome when backing him at home. 3-0 at home, 0.53 ERA. Jack Flaherty goes for the Tigers, 3.88 ERA, 1.05 WHIP. Road numbers are even better, first inning numbers are scary but I'm going to risk it.

NRFI - Tampa Bay at Toronto (-145)

Rays starter Zach Eflin was roughed up in the season opener against the Jays, 5.2 innings giving up 6 runs on 3 homers. Prior to that, he had good splits against the Blue Jays. Kevin Gausman goes for the Blue Jays, excellent career numbers against Tampa Bay. Tampa hitters are 11 for 57, .193 BA. Gausman is coming in off another clunker, 3 innings allowing 7 against Minnesota. I expect better today.

NRFI - Seattle at Baltimore (-155)

Luis Castillo gets the call for Seattle, 2.92 ERA on the road, 1.65 ERA over the last 30 days, 9 starts and only 2 runs allowed in the 1st. O's can hit but I'll take good pitching over good hitting. Grayson Rodriguez returns for the O's, first start since 4/29. Seattle ranks 28^th in 1^st inning runs so I'll roll the dice with this one.

@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Saturday:

NRFI - White Sox/Yankees (-110)

This is now becoming a principle pick for me. Yesterday the Whtie Sox came through with their end of the bargain, but Aaron Judge had other plans. Let's give it a shot again. Both starting pitchers have below 3.00 ERAs, and we just need Brad Keller to hold the top of the order in check, so let's run it back!

NRFI - Padres/Braves (-110)

This pick may be concerning for some, as both of these teams are solid in the first inning. However, Action and I have said numerous times that we will take good pitching over good hitting in the first inning more often than not. We got Yu Darvish and Bruce Elder on the mound. Although may say that Darvish is in the back end of his career, he has been solid this year with a 3-1 record and 2.43 ERA. I'll take good pitching for a NRFI any day.

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Fri, 17 May 2024 11:40:40 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 58-42, 58.0%, up 6.8003 units

@KotaCapperKyle 33-33, 50.0%, down 4.23 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Friday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - Detroit Tigers at Arizona Diamondbacks (-130)

Ryne Nelson goes for the D-Backs, 5.33 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP on the season. One of the bright spots this season for Nelson is that he's yet to give up a run in the 1^st inning. Another positive note, Tigers rank 24^th in OPS vs. righties and 22^nd in runs scored per game. Tarik Skubal gets the call for the Tigers, he's basically an automatic play for me. 5-0 record, 2.02 ERA, 0.86 WHIP. Road numbers are even better than his home numbers. NRFI it is.

NRFI - New York Mets at Miami Marlins (-130)

Rookie Christian Scott gets the call for the Mets, he's faced the Rays & Braves in him only starts, 2.84 ERA, 1.11 WHIP. 0.71 WHIP in AAA over 25.1 innings before getting called up. Marlins rank 28^th in OPS vs. righties so that should help. Jesus Luzardo makes his 2^nd start since returning from the DL, 5.2 innings allowing 2 against the Phillies last out. Mets rank 24^th vs. lefties, Mets hitters are a career 19 for 77, .247 BA against Luzardo. I have a feeling that I can keep a clean first tonight, give me the NRFI.

@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Friday:

NRFI: White Sox/Yankees (-105)

If you watched the College Football Central Show with Mr. Action Junkie and I, you remember that every week I bet Kent State TT Under. Well, White Sox NRFI, might be in that same sort of category to bet often. The White Sox are the worst hitting team in baseball scoring less than 3 runs per game. Although the Yankees are about as good as they come in terms of hitting, at a -105 line, I'll willing to bet they don't score a run.

NRFI: Padres/Braves (-125)

I know that both of these pitchers would want that ERA that they have to go down this season, as both Matt Waldron for the Padres and Max Fried for the Braves have above 3 ERAs. However, the Braves are not very good against Waldron historically, as only two batters in the lineup are hitting .300 or better against him. Fried is a very solid pitcher that is going to bounce back, and I see this first inning being a quick 3 up and 3 down both ways.

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Thu, 16 May 2024 11:40:40 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 58-40, 59.2%, up 8.8003 units

@KotaCapperKyle 33-33, 50.0%, down 4.23 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Thursday (dropped on the podcast)

Play 1: NRFI - New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins (-115)

Is it October? Yankees have won 13 straight playoff games over Minnesota. Now, after one of the best runs in Twins history the Yankees have humbled Minnesota in this series. Joe Ryan for Minnesota, 3.21 ERA, 0.99 WHIP. Tough for me not to back a pitcher with a sub-1 WHIP. Clarke Schmidt gets the call today for the Yankees, 2.95 ERA. Minnesota sticks have scored just 1 run over the first 2 games, I would be OK if they waited until the 2^nd to bust out.

Play 2: NRFI - Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs (-125)

3^rd start back for Justin Steele, struggled last out at Pittsburgh giving up 6 runs over 4 innings. He gets a chance to make adjustments tonight. Steele is a career 3.35 ERA pitcher, 2.65 ERA at Wrigley last year. I think he will be just fine. Jared Jones goes for the Pirates, young gun has a 2.68 ERA, 0.87 WHIP this year. Last out against Chicago, 6 innings, 3 runs allowed. Jones has been good in the 1st, 8 starts allowing just 1 run. Let's get 6 outs without a run tonight.

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Wed, 15 May 2024 11:25:40 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 58-39, 59.8%, up 9.8003 units

@KotaCapperKyle 32-32, 50.0%, down 3.93 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Play for Wednesday (dropped in the newsletter)

NRFI - New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins (-125)

Pablo Lopez goes for the Twins, gave up just 1 run in each of his last two starts against the Red Sox & Mariners. The Yankees have had some success against Lopez in the past, .279 BA over 68 AB's, but I'll still back Lopez with a 0.98 WHIP on the season. That's without having his good stuff in April. Marcus Stroman gets the call for the Yankees. Good pitching coming off a bad start. Gave up 4 over 5.2 last out against the Astros on 9 hits including a pair of homers. Twins have had success against Stroman in the past, .287 BA over 94 AB's. Career 3.66 ERA hasn't been above 4 since 2018. I back him in a bounce back spot.

@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Wednesday:

NRFI: Nationals/White Sox (-125)

I have said it numerous times, and I will say it again, it's not crazy to make an assumption that the White Sox are not going to score runs. They are the worst in the league in terms of runs per game with 2.90 and have the worst record in the AL because of it. The Nationals have Patrick Corbin on the mount, and the White Sox have really struggled against him historically. Meanwhile the White have Garret Crochet on the mount, and he is a new pitcher that the Nationals do not recognize. Only three batters have faced against Crochet for a combined 4 ABs. I think the White Sox won't score a run in the first inning per usual, and a new pitcher will cause issues for the Nationals overall.

NRFI: Red Sox/Rays (-130)

Yes, this is a decent amount of juice for a unique betting line, but I will be honest with you folks. I think I am going to put down two full units on this one. Tanner Houck is on the mound for the Red Sox, and although he hasn't had a great record, he hasn't given up many runs this season with a 2.24 ERA. He also has been very impressive with his command striking out 50 batters, while only walking 8 in 52 and a third innings pitched. Meanwhile the Rays are starting Taj Bradley who is only in this second season in the big leagues. The Red Sox have not seen much of him, with only four batters on the roster going up against him. He did get a loss in his only start, but only allowed one run in six innings. I see this being a low scoring game in general, and I think there's a ton of value in this.

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Tue, 14 May 2024 11:25:40 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 56-39, 58.9%, up 8.0479 units

@KotaCapperKyle 30-31, 49.2%, down 4.78 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Tuesday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI: Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros (-105)

JP Sears for Oakland, he's given up just 1 run in the first inning this year over 8 starts. I'm also the founder of the JP Sears Fan Club - Minnesota Chapter. We hold our meetings every 5^th day if you would like to join. Ronel Branco for the Astros, boring 2.23 ERA, 1.02 WHIP this year. No regrets tonight regardless of the outcome.

NRFI: St. Louis Cardinals at LA Angels (-125)

Reid Detmers gets the call for the Angels, 4 straight starts giving up 4 or more runs. Ouch! On the flip side, he has yet to give up a run in the 1^st inning over 8 starts. I like that. Cardinals rank 29^th in OPS vs. lefties, I like that. I get Sonny Gray for the Cardinals, roughed up last out by the Brew Crew giving up 6 over 5 innings. 2.29 ERA, 0.96 WHIP on the season, I'm in.

@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Tuesday:

NRFI: Nationals/White Sox (-105)

If I can get near ever money to have the White Sox not get a run in the first inning, I'm going to do it. Meanwhile, the Nationals are the worst team in baseball in the first inning, only scoring .23 runs per game and hitting a RFI 84.6% of the time. I know Flexen has struggled for the White Sox but Williams has had a great season so far. This is a ton of value here.

YRFI: Phillies/Mets (-115)

The Phillies have dominated the first inning thus far this year. They are averaging a run per first inning and have hit the YRFI 43.3% of the time, second best in MLB. Although the Mets have struggled this season, Aaron Nola hasn't been his usual self with a near 4.00 ERA, so there's no guarantees that he won't give up a run either. This is value here as well.

YRFI: Yankees/Twins (-115)

Both of these teams are hitting the YRFI around 40% of the time this season. What really intrigues me about his is how the top of these lineups have done against the starting pitchers. For the Twins, Chris Paddack is getting the start. Juan Soto has 2 HRs off Paddack in only 3 ABs against him. He definitely has his number. On the flip side, the Yankees have Carlos Rodon getting the start. Carlos Correa is batting .333 against him in 12 ABs. Other batters in the lineup matchup well in this one, and it seems like runs will come early in this one.

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Mon, 13 May 2024 11:25:40 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 54-39, 58.1%, up 6.4787 units

@KotaCapperKyle 30-31, 49.2%, down 4.78 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Monday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI: Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles (-125)

Jose Berrios vs. Corbin Burnes, need I say more. Both pitchers had a subpar outing last out, Berrios gave up 8 runs over 3.2 at Philadelphia. I love good pitchers off a poor start.

NRFI: Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves (-130)

Like many of us that grew up in an era with Cubs baseball on WGN and Braves baseball on TBS, I was always disappointed when these teams played each other since it meant 1 less game on TV to watch. Tonight, should be a fun one to watch, Shota Imanaga goes for the Cubs, 5-0 record, 1.08 ERA, 0.82 WHIP. He's pitched 7 scoreless opening frames allowing just 1 hit this season. Reynaldo Lopez is on the bump for the Braves, 1.53 ERA, 1.13 WHIP. He's tossed 6 scoreless opening frames allowing just 2 hits. No regrets backing either pitcher with number like that.

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Sun, 12 May 2024 11:25:40 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 52-39, 57.1%, up 4.9541 units

@KotaCapperKyle 30-31, 49.2%, down 4.78 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Sunday (dropped on the podcast)

Play 1: NRFI - Washington Nationals at Boston Red Sox (-138)

MacKenzie Gore for the Nationals, struggled last out against Toronto giving up 6 runs over 3 innings bumping up the ERA to 3.44 on the season. 1^st inning has been a good inning for him, 7/7 without giving up a run. Brayan Bello returns for Boston, 3.04 ERA on the season. Struggled in his lone rehab start but he's 5/5 in the first this year without giving up a run. I'll take my chances.

Play 2: NRFI - Houston Astros at Detroit Tigers (-125)

Justin Verlander returns to the MotorCity after a terrible start in New York allowing 7 runs over 5 innings against the Yankees. At age 41, this could easily be his final start in Detroit. I expect him to have a little extra today for the Tigers. Jack Flaherty is on the bump for Detroit, mixed results this year with a 3.86 ERA. I don't love this play, but I'm going to go with it.

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Sat, 11 May 2024 13:25:40 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 50-39, 56.1%, up 3.6624 units

@KotaCapperKyle 30-31, 49.2%, down 4.78 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Saturday (dropped on the podcast)

Play 1: NRFI - Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates (-160)

I need action on the MLB debut for Paul Skenes. 0.99 ERA over 27.1 innings in AAA this year. Justin Steele goes for the Cubs, 2 starts, 0.96 ERA. Didn't work on Friday but I'm back to try it again today.

Play 2: NRFI - Houston Astros at Detroit Tigers (-150)

I would like to have a word with Tarik Skubal. 1.90 ERA on the season, 0.77 WHIP. 7 starts, he's giving up a TOTAL of 4 runs in the first 5 innings this year. My problem, he's given up a run in 3 of his last 4 opening frames. In fact, his games have had a first inning run in 5 straight games. Cristian Javier for the Astros today, 1.54 ERA on the season, he's 4/4 without giving up a run in the 1^st this season.

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Fri, 10 May 2024 13:25:40 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 50-38, 56.8%, up 4.6624 units

@KotaCapperKyle 30-31, 49.2%, down 4.78 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Play for Friday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates (-148)

Javier Assad has a 1.66 ERA for the Cubbies, he's given up 2 runs over 7 starts in the 1^st innings, Pittsburgh ranks 28^th in runs scored per game. Rookie Jared Jones has a 2.63 ERA for the Pirates, he has yet to give up a run in the 1^st over 7 starts.

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Thu, 09 May 2024 13:25:40 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 50-36, 58.1%, up 6.6624 units

@KotaCapperKyle 30-31, 49.2%, down 4.78 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Thursday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins (-145)

Teams rank 24^th & 26^th in runs scored in the 1st. Seattle is sending out Logan Gilbert with a 1.69 ERA, 0.79 WHIP. I'm good with that. Minnesota is sending out Pablo Lopez coming off a 6 inning, 1 run allowed performance against Boston. Lopez got better during the season last year and I expect to see the same this year. Big fan of this NRFI even at -145.

NRFI - Houston Astros at New York Yankees (-110)

Ronel Blanco has been one of the few bright spots this season for the Astros, 2.09 ERA, 0.96 WHIP. Marcus Stroman goes for the Yankees; he's given up just 1 run in the 1^st over 7 starts. Both teams have burned me of late with the longball in the opening inning, but I'll take my chances.

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Wed, 08 May 2024 13:25:40 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 49-35, 58.3%, up 6.8427 units

@KotaCapperKyle 29-30, 49.1%, down 4.43 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Wednesday (dropped in the newsletter)

NRFI: Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians (-122 on FanDuel)

High scoring affair last night, I'm expecting a pitcher's duel to follow today. Reese Olson goes for Detroit, 2.70 ERA, 1.23 WHIP. He's given up 0 or 1 run in 4 of 6 starts, not bad. Tanner Bibee gets the call for Cleveland, 4.46 ERA, 1.38 WHIP this year. 2.11 ERA at home last year with a larger sample size. Baseball is up and down. Bibee tossed 7 shutout innings against Atlanta on 4/27, next out he gave up 6 runs over 5 innings against the Angels. That's baseball. I expect a good day today. NRFI it is.

NRFI: New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals (-130 on DraftKings)

Sonny Gray for St. Louis. No regrets backing him regardless of the result. Jose Quintana for the Mets, 5.20 ERA, 1.54 WHIP this season. Subpar numbers compared to his career numbers with a 3.77 ERA. Good 1^st inning pitcher this year, 1 run allowed over 7 starts. Last out, poor start allowing 8 runs over 2.2 innings at Tampa Bay. Prior to that, he went 8 innings strong against these Cardinals allowing just 1 run on 3 hits.

NRFI: Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics (-125 on DraftKings)

It's JP Sears day for me. I'm a big fan. Michael Lorenzen for the Rangers, 3.52 ERA, 1.22 WHIP. That's good enough for me to back.

@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Wednesday

NRFI: Tigers/Guardians (-125)

This play makes me nervous because both of these teams have top of the lineups are super dangerous. However, I really like the pitching matchup here with Reese Olson and Tanner Bibee, and I can see these two pitchers starting off strong in the first inning.

NRFI: Padres/Cubs (-135)

Dylan Cease is starting to look like his old self again getting that ERA down to 2.55. Meanwhile, Hayden Wesneski for the Cubs has been lights out in his 16 and 2/3 innings pitched with a 0.54 ERA. It's a lot of juice, but it's well worth the squeeze here.

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Tue, 07 May 2024 13:25:40 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 48-34, 58.5%, up 6.9731 units

@KotaCapperKyle 29-30, 49.1%, down 4.43 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Tuesday (dropped on the podcast)

Play 1: NRFI - Baltimore Orioles at Washington Nationals (-115)

Corbin Burnes on the bump for Baltimore, 2.61 ERA, 0.92 WHIP on the season. Trevor Williams goes for the Nationals, 2.27 ERA, 1.17 WHIP this season. Neither pitcher has been perfect in the first inning this year, but I can't pass up numbers like that.

Play 2: NRFI - Houston Astros at New York Yankees (-115)

Both teams are mid-pack in 1^st inning runs scored. Luis Gil will toe the rubber for the Yankees, 6/6 in the 1^st inning allowing just 1 hit. 3.19 ERA, 1.19 WHIP on the season. That works for me. 41-year-old Justin Verlander goes for the Astros, 3/3 in the 1^st inning allowing only 2 hits. Yankee sticks are a career 22 for 135 against him, .163 BA. NRFI it is.

@KotaCapperKyle Plays: TBD

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Mon, 06 May 2024 16:25:40 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 47-34, 58.0%, up 6.1398 units

@KotaCapperKyle 29-30, 49.1%, down 4.43 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Monday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins (-120)

Seattle & Minnesota rank near the bottom this year averaging 0.36 & 0.34 runs per game in the opening frame. Luis Castillo goes for the Mariners fresh off 7 shutout innings against the Braves. Last 3 starts have been rock solid tossing 20 innings while giving up just 2 runs. Simeon Woods Richardson goes for the Twins, he's 3 for 3 so far tossing a scoreless 1^st inning. Last were against the White Sox but they still counted. Please no runs in the 1st.

@KotaCapperKyle - Plays TBD

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Sun, 05 May 2024 11:25:52 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 47-33, 58.7%, up 7.1398 units

@KotaCapperKyle 29-30, 49.1%, down 4.43 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Sunday (dropped on the podcast)

YRFI finally had a winning day on Saturday, 8-7 after NRFI's started the month 31-5. I looked at some of the numbers late Saturday morning and things are steaming to the under. I think the Marlins/A's moved from -130 to -175 when I checked. I prefer NRFI's, almost feel like I need the YRFI's to go on a run to get pricing back in line. I'm going to bet only 1 NRFI today.

Play 1: NRFI - Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees (-140 on DraftKings)

Nestor Cortes for the Yankees with a 3.86 ERA, 1.10 WHIP. Tarik Skubal goes for the Tigers with a 1.72 ERA, 0.74 WHIP. Made to order NRFI.

@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Sunday: TBD

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Sat, 04 May 2024 11:25:52 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 45-33, 57.7%, up 5.6014 units

@KotaCapperKyle 29-30, 49.1%, down 4.43 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Saturday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI: Marlins/Athletics (-130)

Paul Blackburn has given up just 3 runs over 19 innings pitched at home. Marlins are ranked 26^th in scoring. That works for me. Trevor Rogers is 0-4 for the Marlins, he's shutout opponents in 5 of 6 opening frames this year. Athletics rank 21^st in OPS vs. lefties. NRFI it is.

NRFI: Mariners/Astros (-130)

Logan Gilbert has a 2.03 ERA, 0.80 WHIP for the Mariners over 40 innings. Framber Valdez has a 2.60 ERA, 1.27 WHIP over 17.1 innings this season. Mariners rank 25^th in runs scored. This feels like a NRFI that should close closer to -150.

@KotaCapperKyle's Plays: TBD

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Fri, 03 May 2024 16:02:40 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 43-33, 56.6%, up 4.0607 units

@KotaCapperKyle 27-28, 49.1%, down 4.28 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Friday (dropped in the newsletter)

Play 1: NRFI - Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees (-125)

I played the under overnight on the podcast and said this: A couple of good righties on the bump tonight at Yankees Stadium. Marcus Stroman for New York, 3.69 ERA on the season, 3.65 career ERA. Stroman is coming into this one off his worst start of the year allowing 4 runs over 4 innings at Milwaukee. Tigers rank 23rd in OPS vs. righties. Reese Olson gets the call for Detroit, 3.18 ERA on the season, 3.82 career ERA. Olson is 0-4 on year, I'm expect a strong effort tonight. Let's just add the NRFI.

Play 2: NRFI - Miami Marlins at Oakland Athletics (-135)

I played the A's on the ML last night. I have a thing for JP Sears, after a 3-game stretch tossing 6.1 shutout innings against Texas, 5 innings allowing 1 run against St. Louis, and 6 shutout innings against the Yankees, the wheels came off the bus for Sears after 3 scoreless innings against the O's. The final box score read 6.1 innings with 7 runs allowed. Marlins rank 29th in OPS vs. lefties, 25th in runs scored. Ryan Weathers gets the call for Miami, 4.55 ERA, 1.48 WHIP on the season. I think Weathers can get me 3 outs without a run to start the game.

@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Friday:

YRFI: Orioles/Reds (-115)

These are two of the hottest hitting teams in baseball. Both of these teams are top 10 in terms of runs scored. Both Cole Irvin and Hunter Greene are having down years in terms of ERA, and I think these teams take advantage of this right out of the gates.

YRFI: Tigers/Yankees (+110)

These are two teams that have their top of their lineups leading them to success. Both of these teams top of the lineup have guys that can go yard and can easily get a run across. Add on the fact that we got two above 3.00 ERA pitchers on the mound, getting this at plus money is value and should be taken advantage of.

NRFI: Angels/Guardians (-130)

The Angels bats have struggled in the first inning this season and going up against a talented pitcher in Tanner Bibee is not going to be easy. Meanwhile the Guardians have not seen much of Jose Soriano of the Angels as they have only gone up against him 3 times among 3 batters. It will take a while to figure him out. All of those factors added together makes the NRFI the play.

NRFI: Red Sox/Twins (-125)

Although the Twins have been pretty decent in the first inning this year, they are going up against Tanner Houck who has one of the lowest ERAs in the majors this year with a 1.60. Meanwhile the Red Sox have struggled in the first inning this year, and I'm not confident they'll get a run here. All that together is once against spelling out the NRFI to me.

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Thu, 02 May 2024 16:02:40 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 42-33, 56.0%, up 3.1516 units

@KotaCapperKyle 27-28, 49.1%, down 4.28 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Play for Thursday (dropped in the newsletter)

NRFI: New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles (-110)

Kyle Bradish will make his season debut for the O's off a 2.83 ERA season last year. First start is always dicey but he's worth the risk. O's hammer lefties and almost everyone for that matter, Yankees counter with Carlos Rodon. Rodon has a 2.48 ERA, 1.19 WHIP this year. Great price given the quality of pitching. I'll take good pitching over good hitting.

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Wed, 01 May 2024 16:02:40 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 40-33, 54.8%, up 1.4425 units

@KotaCapperKyle 27-28, 49.1%, down 4.28 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Play for Wednesday (dropped in the newsletter)

Play 1: NRFI - Tampa Bay at Milwaukee (-125)

Play 2: NRFI - Cleveland at Houston (-110)

@KotaCapperKyle: Plays TBD

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Tue, 30 Apr 2024 20:02:40 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 40-32, 55.5%, up 2.4425 units

@KotaCapperKyle 27-28, 49.1%, down 4.28 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Play for Tuesday (dropped in the newsletter)

YRFI - Atlanta Braves at Seattle Mariners (+110)

Luis Castillo has given up 2 runs in the 1st over 6 starts for Mariners. Reynaldo Lopez has yet to give up a run in the 1st for the Braves. Low scoring game last night, Braves are the highest scoring team in baseball. Something is telling me to expect better hitting out of the gates tonight. I'll take a shot at +110.

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Mon, 29 Apr 2024 13:58:09 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 40-31, 56.3%, up 3.4425 units

@KotaCapperKyle 27-28, 49.1%, down 4.28 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Play for Monday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI: Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox (-130)

White Sox have won 3 straight, Twins have won 7 straight games. The Twins scored 27 runs in the final 2 games of the series against the Angels. The White Sox scored 21 runs over the 3-game sweep of the Rays. These 2 pitchers faced each other last week, I typically like the hitters over the pitchers in these back-to-back start situations but neither pitcher had a great outing. Joe Ryan gave up 3 runs over 6 innings allowing a pair of homers. Garrett Crochet gave up 5 runs over 4 innings, that was his third straight start giving up 5 or more. All both teams overachieved hitting over the weekend, bats might return to normal tonight.

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Sun, 28 Apr 2024 13:58:09 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 39-29, 57.3%, up 4.6092 units

@KotaCapperKyle 27-28, 49.1%, down 4.28 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Play for Sunday (dropped on the podcast)

Play 1: NRFI - Kansas City @ Detroit (-125)

Tarik Skubal for the Tigers, 1.82 ERA, 0.74 WHIP. I'm sold. Michael Wacha goes for the Royals, 3.81 ERA, 1.27 WHIP. Detroit ranks 28^th in OPS vs. righties. NRFI it is.

Play 2: NRFI - Minnesota @ LA Angels (-120)

Pablo Lopez for the Twins, 4.39 ERA, 1.05 WHIP. An underwhelming start to the season but his best starts have been on the road allowing 1 run over 7 @ KC and 1 run over 6 @ Baltimore. The Angel sticks are a career 4 for 46 against Lopez, .087 BA. Reid Detmers gets the call for the Angels, 2.12 ERA, 1.04 WHIP this season. Detmers is coming off his toughest start of the year allowing 4 runs over 7 innings against Baltimore. I expect a bounce back from both today, let's cash this NRFI.

Play 3: NRFI - Arizona @ Seattle (-125)

Logan Gilbert will toe the rubber for the Mariners, 1.87 ERA, 0.80 WHIP. He's given up 0 or 1 runs in 4 of his 5 starts. Sounds good to me. Brandon Pfaadt for the D-Backs, 4.97 ERA, 1.17 WHIP on the year. He's a high upside righty that I like, Seattle ranks 21^st in OPS vs. righties, 24^th in OPS at home. Please no runs in the 1st.

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Sat, 27 Apr 2024 13:58:09 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 38-27, 58.5%, up 5.8685 units

@KotaCapperKyle 27-26, 50.9%, down 1.88 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Play for Saturday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI: Oakland @ Baltimore (-135)

I always like good pitching over good hitting. JP Sears for Oakland qualifies as good pitching these days thanks to his 1.96 ERA in April. Former Athletic, Cole Irvin goes for the O's. After a rocky start to the season, he settled in last out with 6.2 scoreless innings at Kansas City. Oakland ranks 23^rd in OPS vs. lefties. NRFI it is.

NRFI: St. Louis at New York Mets (-135)

Sonny Gray goes for the Cardinals, I'll back him and his 1.04 ERA without regret. Adrian Houser gets the call for the Mets, ugly 7.45 ERA this season, gave up 8 runs over 4 innings last out against the Dodgers. Career 4.12 ERA, Cardinals are a career .245 against him over 94 AB's. Cardinals are currently 26^th in OPS vs. righties. I like Houser to have a bounce back start, I think I can get a scoreless 1st.

NRFI: Philadelphia at San Diego (-130)

Ranger Suarez and Dylan Cease doing battle today. Combined 7-1 record, Suarez has a 1.36 ERA, Cease a 1.82. NRFI or nothing for me with numbers like that.

@KotaCapperKyle Plays:

YRFI: Oakland @ Baltimore (+100)

These are two pitchers that have an above 3 ERA. The Orioles have been very good in the first inning this year. Although the A's are not very good in the first innings, Cole Irvin is a good guy to get an early lead on. Irvin has a 4.64 ERA with 24 K's to 13 walks. He has struggled with his command, so this is a great time to combine the Orioles good hitting with the struggles of Irvin for a plus-money YRFI.

NRFI: Dodgers/Blue Jays (-140)

Yes, this is a lot of juice to taking for a first innings bet, but the pitching matchup here screams NRFI to me. Both pitchers, Glasnow and Kikuchi, have a below 3 ERA and have had pretty decent seasons. This is worth the juice to take because I see this being a fairly low scoring game.

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Fri, 26 Apr 2024 13:58:09 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 37-27, 57.8%, up 4.9989 units

@KotaCapperKyle 27-26, 50.9%, down 1.88 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Play for Friday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI: Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers (-115)

First game off the board, standalone afternoon baseball game, I want action. Seth Lugo is off to a great start this year for the Royals with a 2.03 ERA even after he gave up 4 runs over 5.1 last out against Baltimore. Reese Olson goes for the Tigers, 0-3 record, 3.80 ERA. 3.99 ERA last year for Olson, Royals rank 9^th in OPS vs. righties so I'll be pacing in my office. Let's get 6, not 5 without a run in the 1st.

@KotaCapperKyle's Plays: TBD

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Thu, 25 Apr 2024 13:58:09 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 37-25, 59.6%, up 6.9989 units

@KotaCapperKyle 26-24, 52.0%, down 0.88 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Thursday (dropped on the podcast)

Play 1: NRFI - Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royals (-130)

Cole Ragans had a 2.64 ERA with the Royals last year after the trade, he entered his 5^th start this year with a 1.93 ERA but left that game with a 4.32 after allowing 7 runs over 1.2 innings against the Orioles. I expect better today. Jose Berrios looks like Cy Young material for the Blue Jays, 4-0 record, 0.85 ERA, 1.01 WHIP. Boy oh boy do I wish that he was still in a Twins uniform. KC sticks are a career .245 against him, Royals rank 9^th in OPS vs. righties but I'll take good pitching over good hitting. Let's get 6 without a run today.

Play 2: NRFI - Houston Astros at Chicago Cubs (-140)

Javier Assad takes the hill for the Cubbies, 2.11 ERA, 1.03 WHIP. 2 or fewer runs allowed in all 4 starts this year, career 2.94 ERA. I'll back numbers like that all day long. Justin Verlander is on the bump for the Astros, allowed 2 runs over 6 innings in his season debut against the Nationals. Cubs rank 11^th in OPS vs. righties, bottom half concerns me the most given the lack of success for Verlander during his rehab starts. 2014 is the last time Verlander had an ERA over 4, father time has been kind to him and hopefully he can get me the first 3 outs without any damage today.

@KotaCapperKyle's Plays for Thursday:

NRFI: White Sox/Twins (-120)

Man, the White Sox might be the worst team that I have ever seen to start the year this year. Betting any type of under with them is a good move because they are averaging a MLB worst 2.21 runs per game. Although they're scoring around 0.46 runs per first inning (18th in MLB), it's not that hot of a take to take NRFIs in their games and predict them not to score a run. Pair that with the Twins only scoring 0.39 runs per game in the 1st, this is not a lot of juice to take for these NRFIs. Let's cash on some value together.

NRFI: Rockies/Padres (+110)

This one was a tough play for me, since you have the best team in the league in terms of runs per first inning in the Padres (1.11) and one of the worst in the league in the Rockies (0.28). However, I think the Rockies can hold the Padres to no runs early. Randy Vasquez for the Padres has had a great year thus far and is also going to keep the Rockies to low scoring, so getting this NRFI at plus money is value.

YRFI: Dodgers/Nationals (+100)

To say that Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been a disappointment to start the year is an understatement with an above 4 ERA. He has the longest contract in MLB history, and they expect better from him. Not only has he struggled in games this year but thankfully the Dodgers lineup has helped by scoring 5.35 runs per game (5th in the league). The talent on the top of that Dodgers lineup paired with the struggling start that Yamamoto has had makes this plus money YRFI have some serious value that we should take advantage of.

Full Prop Bet Newsletter Recap for Wednesday: 7-0, perfect day. Up 6.6147 units.

Thu, 25 Apr 2024 04:26:45 +0000

Josh Giddey	O9.5	WIN	89.29
Tyler Herro	O20.5	WIN	94.34
Kristaps Porzingis	U18.5	WIN	83.33
Gavin Sheets	U0.5 TB	WIN	120
Carlos Carrasco	O2.5 ER	WIN	105
San Diego Padres	RL -1.5	WIN	92.59
Matt Waldron	O3.5 Ks	WIN	76.92

NBA:

Play 1: Josh Giddey (Thunder) Over 9.5 points vs. New Orleans (-112 on DraftKings)

Number was 12.5 on Sunday, Giddey scored 2 points on 1/6 shooting. Giddey was a go to prop for me during the regular season in a bounce back spot. He averaged 12.3 PPG during the regular season, he averaged 14 PPG after the break, he averaged 14.7 PPG in 3 games against the Pelicans. I have been wrong way too many times of late on the NBA props that I like but I really, really, really like this one tonight. Fingers crossed.

Play 2: Tyler Herro (Heat) Over 20.5 points at Boston (-106 on FanDuel)

Herro was 4/13 for 11 points on Sunday at Boston after scoring 24 & 25 in the play-in games. Herro averaged 23.7 PPG in 3 games against the Celtics during the season. I bet the under on Herro in Game 1 at 23.5, I'm going over at 20.5 tonight.

Play 3: Kristaps Porzingis (Celtics) Under 18.5 points vs. Miami (-120 on DraftKings)

Porzingis averaged 20.3 PPG vs. the Heat in 3 games during the regular season, averaged 20.1 PPG on the year. 18 points in Game 1 on 7/13 shooting including 4/8 from beyond the arc. Considering he averaged only 1.9 made triples per game during the season, I don't expect a repeat of that tonight. Gut says under, I'm going under.

MLB:

Play 1: Total Bases - Gavin Sheets (White Sox) Under 0.5 at Minnesota (+120)

.262 on the year, 2 for 7 career against Joe Ryan. Sheets has had a hit in 6 straight games, I think that ends tonight.

Play 2: Earned Runs Allowed - Carlos Carrasco (Guardians) Over 2.5 vs. Boston (+105)

I just lost a NRFI on Kyle Gibson, I normally fade Gibson and paid the price for backing him. I always fade Carlos Carrasco; I've had enough regret for one day already. I'm going to do what I normally do. 1.53 WHIP this season, 1.70 WHIP last season. Pitchers that have consistent traffic on the bases should pay the price. Get me some earned runs Boston!

Play 3: Run Line - San Diego Padres -1.5 at Colorado (-108)

Bounce back spot for the Padres. Let's put some crooked numbers up tonight.

Play 4: Strikeouts - Matt Waldron (Padres) Over 3.5 at Colorado (-130)

8.5 K's/9 this year for Waldron, Rockies rank 26^th with 9.88 K's per game. Software all supports the play projecting 4.1-5.2 K's tonight. This is like doubling down on 11, no regrets fading the Rockies in back-to-back bets.

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Wed, 24 Apr 2024 12:39:14 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 35-23, 60.3%, up 7.4989 units

@KotaCapperKyle 26-24, 52.0%, down 0.88 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Wednesday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI: Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals (-110)

I've officially lost it. I typically fade Kyle Gibson, not today. I want early action, getaway day following a 14-run performance, early start, I have a hunch Gibby will shut them down early. D-Backs rank 21^st in OPS vs. righties, Gibson is coming off a strong performance giving up 1 over 6 innings against the Brewers. Jordan Montgomery made his season debut on Friday for the D-Backs giving up 1 over 6 innings. Montgomery pitched for St. Louis in 2022 and part of 2023, that might give him a little extra juice. Sub-4 ERA since 2020. Please no runs in the first.

NRFI: New York Mets at San Francisco Giants (-120)

Defending Cy Young winner at -120 in a NRFI bet, I'll bite the hook. Blake Snell is off to a slow start, just like last year. 0-3 on the season, 11.57 ERA, 1.97 WHIP. He's given up more runs than he has strikeouts. I will always be a Snell believer; Mets have a career .228 BA against. I think this is the day that Snell settles in and starts his run. Sean Manaea pitched in this park last year for the Giants, had a 4.44 ERA. Last out, 5 innings - 2 runs allowed against the Dodgers. Giants rank 14^th in OPS vs. lefties, I'll roll the dice on 6 outs without a run.

NRFI: Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers (+105)

Jon Gray will toe the rubber for the Rangers, 3.15 ERA on the season, last worked at Atlanta out of the bullpen facing 5 batters, striking out 4. Excellent April, 16.1 innings, 5 runs allowed on just 11 hits. Seattle hitters are a career .159 against him in 88 at bats. Bryce Miller gets the start for the Mariners, 1.85 ERA, 0.82 WHIP. Excellent April, 19.1 innings, 2 runs allowed. I'll take good pitching over good hitting. NRFI it is.

NRFI: Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins (-150)

I back Joe Ryan of the Twins against good teams, of course I'm willing to back him in a NRFI against the White Sox. Garrett Crochet gave White Sox fans hope after his first 3 starts, 2.00 ERA. The last 2 starts have gone sideways allowing 12 runs over 7.2 innings against the Reds & Phillies. Twins rank 25^th in OPS vs. lefties, 26^th in runs per game. NRFI it is.

@KotaCapperKyle's Plays: TBD

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Tue, 23 Apr 2024 12:39:14 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 33-22, 60.0%, up 7.0537 units

@KotaCapperKyle 26-24, 52.0%, down 0.88 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Tuesday (dropped in the newsletter)

Play 1: NRFI - Oakland at New York Yankees (-125)

Good pitchers duel at Yankee Stadium with Marcus Stroman going for the Yankees and Paul Blackburn for the Athletics. Stroman has a 2.42 ERA on the season, career 3.63 ERA, Athletics rank 29^th in runs scored per game, rank 29^th in OPS vs. righties. Paul Blackburn gave up his first runs of the season last out against the Cardinals, 1.08 ERA, 1.00 WHIP after 25 innings of work. Yankee hitters have had some success against him, Blackburn has a career 4.64 ERA so things could go downhill quickly, but I'll take my chances in the 1st.

Play 2: NRFI - Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royals (-125)

Michael Wacha gets the call for KC. 3.32 ERA in 2022, 3.22 ERA in 2023, and a 3.75 ERA this year. My issue with Wacha, 8 runs allowed over 11 innings against teams other than the Chicago White Sox. Kevin Gausman found it again last out tossing 5 innings against the Yankees giving up 1 run on 4 hits. 8.16 ERA this year after 3 really good years. I still believe in Gausman, I almost played on the Blue Jays on the ML.

Play 3: NRFI - New York Mets at San Francisco Giants (-155)

Ugly price. Logan Webb at home for San Francisco. Sign me up. Luis Severino for the Mets, 2.14 ERA on the season. 4 runs allowed over 16 innings pitched in April. Giants rank 14^th in OPS vs. righties. Please no runs in the 1st.

@KotaCapperKyle Plays: TBD

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Mon, 22 Apr 2024 12:39:14 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 32-21, 60.4%, up 7.1841 units

@KotaCapperKyle 24-22, 52.2%, down 0.48 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Monday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI: Oakland Athletics @ New York Yankees (-115)

JP Sears goes for Oakland, last 2 starts he has pitched a total of 11.1 innings, given up 1 run and 3 hits against the Rangers & Cardinals plus he's a former Yankee and the Yankees rank 18^th in OPS vs. lefties. Carlos Rodon gets the call for New York, 3.66 ERA on the season, not the best WHIP at 1.68. Athletics rank 19^th in OPS vs. lefties, rank 29^th in runs scored per game. Rodon was one of the best in baseball in 2021 & 2022, hopefully he finds the old stuff in the 1^st for me.

NRFI: Detroit Tigers @ Tampa Bay Rays (-145)

Zack Littell has the hill in St. Pete tonight for the Rays, 2.14 ERA on the season, career 3.94 ERA. 3 of 4 starts have resulted in 1 or fewer runs allowed. Tigers rank 27^th in OPS vs. righties. Tarik Skubal goes for the Tigers, 2.28 ERA on the year looking to bounce back from a subpar effort last out allowing 4 runs against the Rangers including 1 in the first to crush the NRFI. He's good, Rays are not so good against lefties ranking 20^th in OPS.

@KotaCapperKyle's Plays:

NRFI: Phillies/Reds (-125)

Although the Phillies are one of the best first inning teams in all of baseball, I think this is going to be a low scoring and quick first inning. Hunter Greene is going to look to have a bounce back game, and this just seems like a NRFI start.

YRFI: Diamondbacks/Cardinals (-120)

The Diamondbacks LOVE to score runs early in games, as they have a MLB best 1.17 average runs per first inning. Lance Lynn for the Cardinals has not been his true self this season, so I don't expect a good start out of him with this really solid Diamondbacks lineup.

YRFI: Padres/Rockies (-120)

I have stated numerous times on podcasts, and I'll say it again: Fading Austin Gomber has been absolutely profitable for me. I think he is going to have some serious trouble early against a team that is averaging 1 run scored in the first inning per game this season.

NRFI: Mets/Giants (-120)

This is a lot of value, as these are two of the worst teams in the MLB in terms of average runs scored in the first inning per game. Although both starting pitchers have ERAs above 3, I think the top of these lineups won't do much early, and no runs will be scored in the inning.

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Sun, 21 Apr 2024 12:39:14 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 30-21, 58.8%, up 5.5841 units

@KotaCapperKyle 24-22, 52.2%, down 0.48 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Sunday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI: Oakland Athletics at Cleveland Guardians (-125)

Cleveland ranks 15^th in OPS vs. righties, Oakland ranks 28th. Athletics rank 29^th in runs per game, Cleveland ranks 5th. Tanner Bibee had a 2.98 ERA, 1.18 WHIP last year over 142 innings. Oakland scored 3 off him early in the year over 4 innings, I expect better today. I feel good about the top half. Bottom half scares me with Ross Stripling in the hill, veteran has a career 4.00 ERA but was over 5 last year and as again this year to start. He allowed 5 runs over 5 innings in his first meeting against Cleveland. Only 1 good start out of 4.

NRFI: Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals (-125)

Cardinals are 25^th in OPS vs. righties, Brewers are 2nd. Nothing will be easy for Sonny Gray today, but he has tossed 11 scoreless innings to start the season with a 0.82 WHIP. Last season he had a 2.79 ERA with Minnesota. I always like good pitching over good hitting, so I feel good about the first 3 outs. Bottom of the 1^st I'm counting on Colin Rea to continue his strong season, 2.70 ERA, 1.20 WHIP over his first 3 starts. Please no runs in the 1st.

@KotaCapperKyle's Plays: TBD

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Sat, 20 Apr 2024 12:39:14 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 27-21, 56.3%, up 3.0221 units

@KotaCapperKyle 24-20, 54.5%, up 2.02 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Saturday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI: Tampa Bay at New York Yankees (-113)

5^th start of the season for Nestor Cortes, only 1 good start when he tossed 8 shutout innings against the Marlins. 4.50 ERA, 1.14 WHIP. I'm hoping for a 2022 like start today from Cortes at home against a familiar foe. Zach Eflin goes for the Rays, 2 good and 2 bad starts so far. Last start at Yankee Stadium, 6 innings - 0 runs back in August. I would love a clean opening frame for both pitchers.

NRFI: Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs (-105)

I refuse to believe Jesus Luzardo is going to drop-off like this. 3.32 ERA in 2022, 3.63 ERA last year, 7.65 ERA this year. Luzardo has given up 12 runs over his last 2 starts. Cubbies batters are a career 11 for 54 against him, .204 BA. Javier Assad is on the bump for the Cubs, 2.16 ERA, 0.96 WHIP this year. 3.05 ERA last year. Wind in or out, I'll bet the NRFI.

NRFI: Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals (-138)

Corbin Burnes and his 2.28 ERA for the O's, Cole Ragans and his 1.93 ERA for the Royals. These 2 pitchers dueled in Baltimore back on April 3rd, Ragans gave up 1 hit, 0 runs over 6.1 innings. Burnes gave up 9 hits, 2 runs over 5.2 innings in that game. Both teams can score but I'll take good pitching over good hitting.

@KotaCapperKyle Plays:

NRFI: Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants (-130)

The Diamondbacks had an unbelievable 17 run day yesterday. If there's one thing I learned from my years of watching baseball those bats will cool off. On top of that, Zac Gallen and his 1.64 ERA is on the mount today, and this just seems like a low scoring game and a great NRFI.

YRFI: Texas Rangers at Atlanta Braves (-120)

Although this is a decent pitching matchup with Eovaldi and Morton, the Braves top of the lineup is extremely dangerous and can pop off at any time. This is a vibes play and sometimes vibes succeed knowledge.

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Update

Fri, 19 Apr 2024 12:39:14 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 27-20, 57.4%, up 4.0221 units

@KotaCapperKyle 24-20, 54.5%, up 2.02 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Play for Friday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI: Chicago White Sox at Philadelphia Phillies (-115)

The White Sox are dead last in scoring, Phillies rank 22nd. Garrett Crochet goes for the White Sox, 3 good starts, 1 bad start. 0.84 WHIP on the season, 31 K's over 22.2 innings. Career 2.92 ERA over 95.2 career big league innings. High upside based on what we have seen so far from the 24-year-old. Spencer Turnbull has a career 4.42 ERA, 1.80 ERA this year after 3 starts. If the White Sox score, I tip my cap. On the surface this looks like a really good NRFI to me.

@KotaCapperKyle: TBD

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Update

Thu, 18 Apr 2024 12:39:14 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 26-20, 56.5%, up 3.1525 units

@KotaCapperKyle 24-20, 54.5%, up 2.02 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Play for Thursday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI: Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants (-115)

Ryne Nelson makes his 4^th start of the year for the D-Backs, he gave up 5 against the Yankees to open the season, 3 to the Braves, and last out he went 6 strong giving up just a run against the Cardinals. Logan Webb goes the Giants, always tough at home, 3.80 ERA on the season, 3 of his 4 starts have been good this year including back-to-back 7 inning efforts against the Padres & Rays. 3.42 career ERA.

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Update

Wed, 17 Apr 2024 14:39:14 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 23-18, 56.1%, up 2.6742 units

@KotaCapperKyle 24-20, 54.5%, up 2.02 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Wednesday (dropped in the newsletter)

NRFI: Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers (-145)

Tarik Skubal goes for the Tigers today so I will have no regrets regardless of the outcome in the top half. Dane Dunning gets the call for the Rangers, 4.50 ERA, 1.17 WHIP. 3.70 ERA last year. Detroit ranks 26^th in runs per game. That's enough for me.

NRFI: New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays (-110)

How many ways will I allow Kevin Gausman to beat me? 12 runs allowed over the last 2 games against the Rockies & Yankees. The Yankees chased him in the 2^nd inning after 2 homers, 4 hits, 2 walks, and 6 runs over 1.1 innings. Bronx Bombers are 43 for 171 against him, .251 BA. I expect better from Gausman, 3.16 ERA last year, 3.89 career ERA. Marcus Stroman is on the bump for the Blue Jays, 2.12 ERA this year, 6 shutout innings against the Jays on the 5th. I'll take my chances.

NRFI: St. Louis Cardinals at Oakland Athletics (-130)

Paul Blackburn has tossed 19.1 innings this year without giving up a run. I don't expect an Orel Hershiser type run but I will hope for at least 1 more inning from him. Steven Matz goes for the Cardinals, 1.80 ERA this year, 3.86 ERA last year. Athletics rank 29^th in scoring. NRFI it is.

NRFI: LA Angels at Tampa Bay Rays (-120)

Long 13-inning game yesterday, hopefully the bats will be sleepy today. Zack Littell goes for the Rays, 1.17 ERA over 15.1 innings this year, 3.93 ERA last year. Reid Detmers is already 3-0 for the Angels, 1.04 ERA, 0.81 WHIP. Regression is likely with a career 4.19 ERA but I'll take my chances in the first given his YTD numbers.

NRFI: Cincinnati Reds at Seattle Mariners (-125)

Cashed last night, back for more. Bryce Miller for the Mariners, 1.96 ERA, 0.98 WHIP on the season. 13.1 innings in April, 1 run allowed against the Cubs & Brewers. Andrew Abbott for the Reds, 2.60 ERA, 1.04 WHIP on the season. 3.87 ERA last year. I'll risk it at a pitcher friendly park.

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Update

Tue, 16 Apr 2024 12:39:14 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@KotaCapperKyle 24-16, 60.0%, up 6.02 units

@MrActionJunkie1 20-17, 54.0%, up 1.3179 units

This losing streak has been painful.

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Tuesday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI: Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers (-120)

Afternoon baseball in Detroit, 1-0 Rangers last night. Hopefully the bats will stay cool in the 1^st today. Casey Mize looked better in his second start back giving up 2 runs over 5 to the Pirates last out. Jon Gray had a nice bounce back start against Oakland last out giving up 1 run over 5 innings. It's been far too long since I started the day with a W. Let's end that streak with a scoreless 1st.

NRFI: Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Mets (-120)

Jose Quintana gets the call for the Mets, 3.45 ERA on the season after starts against Atlanta, Cincinnati, and Milwaukee. That list would be ranked #1, #2, and #3 in scoring this year. Pirates are 14 for 70 off Quintana, .200 BA with 1 homer. Rookie Jared Jones goes for the Pirates, 4.00 ERA, 0.94 WHIP after 18 innings. 12.5 K's/9, live arm. Let's get 6 dang outs without a run today.

NRFI: San Diego at Milwaukee (-115)

Is Dylan Cease back? Early returns look good for the Padres, 2.16 ERA, 0.844 WHIP. Rough 2023 with the White Sox, excellent 2022 with a 2.20 ERA, 1.11 WHIP. I'm hoping he's back for at least the first 3 outs today. Wade Miley goes for the Brew Crew, 4 innings - 1 run in his lone start this season at Cincinnati, 3.14 ERA last year, 2.35 ERA in the First Inning.

NRFI: Cincinnati at Seattle (-145)

I'm back for more in Seattle after losing a NRFI back-to-back days. Logan Gilbert is part one of the equation today, 2.66 ERA, 0.84 WHIP. Reds had had some success against him but I think he will be just fine today. Hunter Greene will look to bring the heat for the Reds, 4.86 ERA coming off a disappointing effort giving up 7 against Milwaukee last out. I expect a nice bounce back effort against the Mariners.

KotaCapperKyle Plays for Tuesday:

NRFI: Padres/Brewers (-120)

There are two solid pitchers on the mound in Dylan Cease and Wade Miley, each with an ERA below 2.30. The top of the lineup for each will have a lot to deal with, and I see it being a quick inning.

YRFI: Yankees/Blue Jays (-105)

Although we got a really good pitching matchup here, the top of each of these lineups has had their way with these starting pitchers, particularly the Blue Jays with Carlos Rodon. We could see a few runs early in this first inning.

YRFI: Braves/Astros (-130)

The top of the lineups for both of these teams is enough for me to bet a YRFI. 6 guys that can easily hit a dinger or bring runs ins. This is a little bit of juice, but there's a reason for that. The oddsmakers are telling you what to bet.

NRFI: Nationals/Dodgers (-105)

I know that Patrick Corbin has struggled on the mound lately, but a bounce back is very much due here. The value is with the NRFI, and I think that this could be a very slow start to the first inning.

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Update

Mon, 15 Apr 2024 14:39:14 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@KotaCapperKyle 24-16, 60.0%, up 6.02 units

@MrActionJunkie1 20-16, 55.5%, up 2.3179 units

Need to stop the losing streak tonight.

@MrActionJunkie1 Play for Monday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI: Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners (-128)

George Kirby is off to a shaky start for Seattle, 8.16 ERA, 1.53 WHIP after giving up 13 runs over 7.2 innings this month against Cleveland & Toronto. 3.35 ERA last year, 2.70 ERA at home last year. Frankie Montas still has a 2.16 ERA on the year after giving up 5 runs over 5 innings against Milwaukee last time out. I failed in Seattle on Sunday, I'll try again today.

@KotaCapperKyle's Plays: TBD

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Update

Sun, 14 Apr 2024 14:39:14 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@KotaCapperKyle 24-16, 60.0%, up 6.02 units

@MrActionJunkie1 20-14, 58.8%, up 4.3179 units

I had the lead for a day, didn't last long with an 0-2 day on Saturday. :(

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Sunday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI: Texas Rangers at Houston Astros (-105)

Nathan Eovaldi will toe the rubber for the Rangers, 1.45 ERA, 0.80 WHIP this season. Astros have 12 career homers off him over 157 at bats so that does concern me a bit. Cristian Javier goes for the Astros, 1.10 ERA, 1.16 WHIP on the season. The Rangers have 5 career homers off him over 122 at bats. With ERAs of 1.45 & 1.10, I'll take my chances.

NRFI: Chicago Cubs at Seattle Mariners (-120)

Javier Assad for the Cubbies, 1.64 ERA, 1.00 WHIP on the season. 3.05 ERA last year over 109.1 innings. Luis Castillo for the Mariners, he's struggling this year with a 6.89 ERA, 1.85 WHIP. He's much better than that, 3.59 career ERA, Cubs batters are just 22 for 94 against him lifetime, .234 BA, only 1 homer. Cubs rank 3^rd in scoring, I'm still going to press my luck at a pitcher friendly park.

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Update

Sat, 13 Apr 2024 14:39:14 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 20-12, 62.5%, up 6.3179 units

@KotaCapperKyle 24-16, 60.0%, up 6.02 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Saturday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI: San Francisco Giants at Tampa Bay Rays (-120)

Rays starter Ryan Pepiot has a career 3.00 ERA, 1.07 WHIP. Last out in COLORADO he tossed 6 scoreless innings allowing 3 hits with 11 K's. Logan Webb goes for the Giants, career 3.44 ERA, 1.18 WHIP. Not the greatest numbers this year but he is coming off a 7 inning - 2 runs allowed performance against San Diego last out. Please NO runs in the 1st.

NRFI: Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins (+140)

I'll double down on my Max Meyer handicap. I see this one being scoreless after 1. Betting against the Braves is tough but I'm high on Max Meyer. My faith will be put to the test today against one of the best lineups in baseball. The Conductor Chris Sale goes for the Braves, career 3.10 ERA, 3.38 ERA this year after starts against the Phillies & D-Backs.

@KotaCapperKyle Plays: TBD

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Update

Fri, 12 Apr 2024 14:39:14 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@KotaCapperKyle 22-13, 62.9%, up 7.32 units

@MrActionJunkie1 19-11, 63.3%, up 6.4088 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Friday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins (-120)

This seems wrong on so many levels. The Braves led baseball in runs per game, Max Fried has recorded 15 outs this year and given up 11 runs. He has a WHIP of 3.20 and the Marlins hitters are a career 15 for 50 against him, .300 BA. Still, it's tough not a think Fried will have a bounce back effort tonight. Trevor Rogers goes for the Marlins with a career 4.17 ERA, 5.40 ERA this year. I'll be sweating the first 6 out on Friday, drama free 1^st please.

NRFI - Washington Nationals at Oakland Athletics (-110)

A's starter Paul Blackburn has pitched 13 innings this year without allowing a run. 0.54 WHIP after starts against Cleveland & Detroit. Jake Irvin is on the bump for Nats, 5.73 ERA on the season. Good news for him, Oakland is averaging just 2.14 runs per game at home. Please NO runs in the 1st.

@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Friday:

YRFI: Milwaukee/Baltimore (-115)

NRFI: Colorado/Toronto (-115)

YRFI: New York Yankees/Cleveland (-120)

YRFI: Atlanta/Miami (-115)

NRFI: St. Louis/Arizona (+100)

NRFI: Washington/Oakland (-115)

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Update

Thu, 11 Apr 2024 14:39:14 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@KotaCapperKyle 22-13, 62.9%, up 7.32 units

@MrActionJunkie1 18-11, 62.1%, up 5.3088 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Thursday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI: Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers (+110)

I see so much potential in J.P. Sears that it drives me crazy. The Rangers are hitting .246 against him, 8.68 ERA this year, 4.54 ERA last year. He's better than that, I expect to see it today. Jon Gray goes for the Rangers, nothing easy for him this year. Both starts lasted 3.2 innings, WHIP of 2.45. 4.12 ERA, 1.29 WHIP last year. Athletics are 4 for 40 against him, .100 BA and 0 homers. Should be a bounce back spot for him with the A's ranking 27^th in scoring.

@KotaCapperKyle Plays: TBD

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Update

Wed, 10 Apr 2024 13:39:14 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@KotaCapperKyle 22-13, 62.9%, up 7.32 units

@MrActionJunkie1 17-10, 62.9%, up 5.4755 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Wednesday (dropped in the newsletter)

Play 1: NRFI - Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays (-120)

Logan Gilbert goes for Seattle, career 3.75 ERA, 1.13 WHIP. Struggled last out at Milwaukee allowing 4 runs over 5.2, excellent first start allowing 1 run over 7 vs. Boston. I like good pitchers in a bounce back spot. Yusei Kikuchi gets the call for the Blue Jays, struggled against Tampa to open the season giving up 3 over 4.1 innings, excellent last out against the Yankees with 5.1 innings of shutout baseball. 3.86 ERA last year. Both teams are Bottom 10 in scoring, I think we can get 6 outs today without a run.

Play 2: NRFI - Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians (-120)

I will likely have several NRFI bets with the White Sox this year given they rank 30^th in scoring, 2.09 runs per game. Tanner Bibee is on the bump today for the Guardians, 3.03 career ERA. No problem with that. Erick Fedde is off to a strong start for the White Sox, 2.79 ERA over a pair of starts against the Royals and Tigers. Career 5.35 ERA scares me, hope recent form trumps historical numbers. Please NO runs in the 1st.

@KotaCapperKyle's Plays:

TBD

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Update

Tue, 09 Apr 2024 16:10:58 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@KotaCapperKyle 21-10, 67.7%, up 9.77 units

@MrActionJunkie1 16-9, 64.0%, up 5.6059 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Tuesday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI: Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays (-115)

George Kirby goes for the Mariners, 6.2 scoreless in his first start against Boston, rocked by Cleveland in his second start giving up 8 runs over 3.2 innings. 3.35 ERA, 1.04 WHIP last year. Chris Bassitt gets the call for the Blue Jays, gave up 5 runs to the Rays, 4 runs to the Astros in his first couple starts. 3.60 ERA, 1.18 WHIP last year. Bassitt should be better tonight, let's get the first 6 outs without a run.

NRFI: Houston Astros at Kansas City Royals (-110)

Cole Ragans will toe the rubber for the Royals, 1.46 ERA, 0.89 WHIP after his first 2 starts of the year. Last year with Kansas City, 2.64 ERA, 1.07 WHIP. Really good numbers. Astros sticks are 17 for 77 against him, .221 BA. Cristian Javier will be on the bump for the Astros, 11 innings, 0 runs allowed this year, 1.00 WHIP. Last year, 4.56 ERA, 1.27 WHIP. 5.17 ERA away from home last year will keep me up tonight but I'll going to run it up. Please NO runs in the 1st.

@KotaCapperKyle's Plays for Tuesday

NRFI: Baltimore at Boston (-135)

NRFI: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland (-110)

YRFI: New York Mets at Atlanta (-125)

YRFI: Chicago Cubs at San Diego (+100)

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Update

Mon, 08 Apr 2024 18:10:58 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@KotaCapperKyle 18-9, 66.6%, up 7.75 units

@MrActionJunkie1 14-9, 60.9%, up 3.903 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Monday (dropped in the newsletter)

NRFI - Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres (-120 on DraftKings)

Javier Assad had an excellent start against the Rockies to open the season, 6 innings, 0 runs, 4 hits. 3.05 ERA last year, 1.23 WHIP. Yu Darvish is making his 4^th start of the year, 2.30 ERA, 1.09 WHIP. Cubs are 15 for 83 against him, .181 BA. Most years, Darvish is tough at home. Petco is a pitcher friendly park, let's avoid a run in the 1st.

NRFI - Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians (-115 on DraftKings)

Tanner Banks will be the opener for the White Sox, 2 innings, 0 runs, 1 hit allowed this year. Career 3.72 ERA. Triston McKenzie had a rough first start, 3.1 innings, 5 runs allowed at Seattle. Good news, the White Sox are averaging 1.78 runs per game this year. Let's get 6 outs without a run today.

@KotaCapperKyle's Plays for Monday (dropped in the newsletter)

NRFI: White Sox/Guardians (-120)

YRFI: Marlins/White Sox (-105)

NRFI: Mets/Braves (+107)

YRFI: Dodgers/Twins (-112)

It's Tournament Time! National Championship Game - UConn vs. Purdue

Mon, 08 Apr 2024 14:48:26 +0000

NCAA Tournament Sides: 37-28-1, 56.9%

Conference Tournament Totals: 165-127-5, 56.5%

Conference Tournament Sides: 165-129-3, 56.1%

NCAA Tournament Totals: 28-36-2, 43.8%

1H Total (Under)

Purdue/UConn

Side:

UConn -6.5 vs. Purdue

KenPom has this game at 75-72 UConn. Purdue is #3 on offense, #12 on defense. They are 13-1 against Top 20 teams this year in the KenPom number, 5-0 vs. Top 10 teams. The only Top 20 team to beat them, Wisconsin at the Big 10 Tournament in OT. As a fan, I'm cheering for Matt Painter, I still remember him from his days on the bench at Southern Illinois as an assistant for Bruce Weber. Purdue would be such a great story, losing to a 16 seed and then winning it the following year by knocking off the defending champs. Tonight, will also remind me of years gone by when big fellas like Never Nervous Pervis Ellison & Patrick Ewing dominated the game. Normally I like to back the best player on the floor, that's 2x AP Player of the Year Zach Edey. Normally I like to go with the KenPom numbers when the gap is over a bucket, 3.5 points of value on Purdue. Everything is pointing to Purdue, but I'm done losing money betting against UConn. I'm laying the 6.5.

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Update

Sun, 07 Apr 2024 11:48:54 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@KotaCapperKyle 15-8, 65.2%, up 6 units

@MrActionJunkie1 12-9, 57.1%, up 1.8939 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Sunday (dropped in the newsletter)

NRFI - Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals (-110 on DraftKings)

Garrett Crochet has given up only 2 runs over 13 innings so far this season for the White Sox. He looks really good. The White Sox are averaging 1.63 runs per game. If they score in the first, I'll tip my cap because I'm betting against it. Alec Marsh held Baltimore to 2 hits and 1 run over 7 in his first start, I'll hope for more of that today. NO runs in the 1^st please.

NRFI - Houston Astros at Texas Rangers (+110 on DraftKings)

Ronel Blanco goes for the Astros fresh off his no-no against the Blue Jays. Tossed 15.2 scoreless innings this spring as well. I like those numbers. Dane Dunning gets the call for the Rangers, 3.70 ERA last year, not the greatest 1^st inning numbers last year with a 4.15. The Astros had success against him last year, first 3 outs make me nervous but with Blanco and plus $, I can't pass it up.

@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Sunday

Chicago White Sox/Kansas City Under 0.5 (-110)

LA Dodgers/Chicago Cubs Over 0.5 (-105)

Tampa Bay/Colorado Under 0.5 (+120)

Houston/Texas Over 0.5 (-145)

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Update

Sat, 06 Apr 2024 11:48:54 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@KotaCapperKyle 15-8, 65.2%, up 6 units

@MrActionJunkie1 11-8, 57.9%, up 1.8439 units

@MrActionJunkie1 Plays for Saturday (dropped on the podcast)

NRFI - Houston Astros at Texas Rangers (+105)

J.P. France had a 3.83 ERA last year for the Astros, Jon Gray had a 4.12 ERA last year along with a 1.59 ERA when it mattered the most in the post season. Both pitchers are good enough for me to grab the plus $.

NRFI - Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Braves (+105)

Last year, Max Fried left early with an injury in his opening start, this year he got chased in the opening frame with 3 walks, 2 hits, and 3 runs allowed against the Phillies. 2.48 and 2.55 ERA over the last 2 years. I expect Fried to be better today. Brandon Pfaadt goes for the D-Backs, 3.27 ERA over 22 innings in the postseason last year. 5 innings, 1 run in the opener vs. Colorado. Braves lineup would likely give Sandy Koufax in his prime some sleepless nights but at plus $, I'll take a chance.

@KotaCapperKyle Plays for Saturday

TBD

It's Tournament Time! Final Four Picks

Fri, 05 Apr 2024 17:06:53 +0000

NCAA Tournament Sides: 35-28-1, 55.5%

Conference Tournament Totals: 165-127-5, 56.5%

Conference Tournament Sides: 165-129-3, 56.1%

NCAA Tournament Totals: 27-35-2, 43.5%

1H Totals (Always betting UNDER):

North Carolina State/Purdue	68.5
Alabama/UConn	76.5

Sides:

Purdue	-9
UConn	-11.5

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Update

Fri, 05 Apr 2024 11:48:54 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@KotaCapperKyle 13-7, 65.0%, up 5.1 units

@MrActionJunkie1 11-6, 64.7%, up 3.8439 units

Friday Card for Action: (dropped on the podcast last night)

NRFI - New York Mets @ Cincinnati Reds (-110)

Hitter friendly park, both pitchers had a rough spring with ERAs of 6.19 and 7.20. Scary NRFI but Hunter Greene for the Reds gave up just 2 runs in 22 opening frames last year and pitched a scoreless 1^st to start this year. Jose Quintana for the Mets gave up 4 runs in 13 opening frames last year and pitched a scoreless 1^st to start this season.

YRFI - Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals (-115)

Patrick Corbin goes for the Nationals, 7.31 ERA in the 1^st inning last season. Aaron Nola got hit hard by the Braves in the opener, 4.1 innings, 6 runs, on 11 hits. The Nationals aren't the Braves but let's get a run in the 1st.

Friday Card for @KotaCapperKyle:

NRFI - Arizona D-Backs @ Atlanta Braves (-110)

YRFI - Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals (+100)

NRFI - Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers (-140)

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Update

Wed, 03 Apr 2024 13:48:54 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@KotaCapperKyle 11-5, 68.8%, up 5.45 units

@MrActionJunkie1 10-4, 71.4%, up 4.6939 units

Wednesday Card for Action: (dropped in the newsletter)

Play 1: YRFI - Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles (+115)

I can't pass up at +115. Cole Ragans had a 6.75 ERA this spring, 1.50 WHIP giving up 4 or more runs in his final 3 starts. Solid last year, good opener against Minnesota giving up 2 over 6 innings. Corbin Burnes goes for the O's, 4.22 ERA in the Inning 1 last year, 6.75 ERA this spring, 1.31 WHIP. Let's try to hit the board in the 1^st today.

Play 2: YRFI - Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers (-125)

Chris Paddack goes for the Twinkies, 4.21 career ERA, 4.73 ERA this spring with a 1.58 WHIP. Joe Ross goes for the Brew Crew, 4.26 career ERA, 4.50 ERA this spring with a 1.58 WHIP. Both pitchers could be playing with fire early with those WHIPs, I think someone gets a run across the plate to cash this ticket.

Play 3: NRFI - St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres (-105)

Joe Musgrove has given up runs in the 1^st in both starts so far this year. After a couple bad starts, I expect better today from the veteran with a career 3.77 ERA. I have a prop upcoming on Zack Thompson, I also think he has a nice bounce back start today. I'm cheering for a scoreless 1^st in San Diego.

@KotaCapperKyle

NRFI - Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays (-120)

YRFI - Atlanta Braves @ Chicago White (+105)

NRFI - Boston Red Sox @ Oakland A's (-110)

YRFI - New York Yankees @ Arizona D-Backs (-115)

YRFI - San Francisco Giants @ LA Dodgers (-110)

MLB Best Bet for Wednesday from @KotaCapperKyle

Wed, 03 Apr 2024 04:21:58 +0000

Man, it’s hard not to bet on the Orioles. This is a fun and young team that is giving the folks in Baltimore a lot to be excited about. Adley Rutschman is the best catcher in baseball right now, Gunnar Henderson is considered one of the best shortstops in the league and Ryan Mountcastle is a great cleanup hitter. They have on the mound one of the top aces in the league in Corbin Burnes. They lost a tough one 4-1 today, but having their ace on the mound and a revenge factor on the mind, I think this game is going to be a rout, as the Orioles will get the series win here.

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Update

Tue, 02 Apr 2024 11:48:54 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 8-4, 66.6%, up 3.0951 units

@KotaCapperKyle 7-5, 58.3%, up 1.45 units

Tuesday Card for Action: (dropped on the podcast last night)

NRFI: Cleveland Guardians @ Seattle Mariners (-145)

Shane Bieber & Luis Castillo. Both had an excellent spring with ERAs of 1.56 and 2.95. Castillo struggled in his season debut; Bieber was excellent against Oakland. NRFI or nothing for me. NRFI it is.

NRFI: Atlanta Braves @ Chicago White Sox (-110)

Both pitchers had an excellent spring with ERAs of 2.16 and 2.13. The White Sox starter Garrett Crochet opened with 6 strong innings against Detroit giving up 1 run on 5 hits with 8 K's. NRFI with the Braves is scary, but I'll take my chances today.

Tuesday Card for Kyle:

NRFI: Atlanta Braves @ Chicago White Sox (-110)

NRFI: St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres (-115)

YRFI: Boston Red Sox @ Oakland A's (-105)

YRFI: New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-125)

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Update

Mon, 01 Apr 2024 11:48:54 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @MrActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Note: Kyle bets to win a unit, Action bets to risk a unit.

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 6-3, 66.6%, up 2.0951 units

@KotaCapperKyle 3-3, 50%, down 0.4 units

Monday Card for Action: (dropped on the podcast last night)

YRFI: Pirates @ Nationals (-110)

Marco Gonzales for the Pirates gave up 3 or more runs in 3 of 5 starts this spring finishing with a 8.64 ERA, 1.92 WHIP, and .342 batting average against. MacKenzie Gore goes for the Nationals, he looked good in his first 3 starts this spring but gave up 8 runs over 4.2 innings against the Mets in his final tune-up against major league competition. Enough bad for both to get me interested.

YRFI: Reds @ Phillies (-125)

Andrew Abbott goes for the Reds; he gave up 4 runs over 3 against Oakland and 3 runs over 3 against Arizona in his final two starts this spring. Cristopher Sanchez goes for the Phillies; he gave up 4 runs over 2.1 innings against Houston and 3 runs over 3 against the Rays in his final two starts this spring. These 2 had WHIPs of 1.88 and 2.45. Let's get a run in the 1st.

NRFI: Yankees @ Diamondbacks (+120)

+120, I'm willing to touch this high-risk wager. Ryne Nelson goes for the Diamondbacks. Last time I watched him pitch he went 5.1 innings against the Rangers in the World Series giving up 1 run on 3 hits. 2.66 ERA this spring. Luis Gil goes for the Yankees, he had a 2.87 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, .127 BA against over 15.2 innings this spring not to mention the 23 strikeouts. Both pitchers have upside, I'll risk it at this price.

Monday Card for Kyle:

NRFI - Rangers/Rays (1.2/1)

NRFI - Tigers/Mets (1.25/1)

YRFI - Guardians/Mariners (1/1)

YRFI - Red Sox/A's (1/1)

NRFI - Yankees/Diamondbacks (1/1.05)

YRFI - Giants/Dodgers (1.2/1)

It's Tournament Time! Elite 8 Picks

Sat, 30 Mar 2024 03:27:09 +0000

NCAA Tournament Sides: 33-26-1, 55.9%

Conference Tournament Totals: 165-127-5, 56.5%

Conference Tournament Sides: 165-129-3, 56.1%

NCAA Tournament Totals: 24-34-2, 41.4%

1H Totals: Everything to the UNDER

Illinois/UConn	74
Clemson/Alabama	78.5
Tennessee/Purdue	69.5
NC State/Duke	66.5

Sides:

Game 1: Illinois +9.5 vs. UConn

No handicap required; I said before the Big 10 Tournament that I was picking Illinois to win the NCAA Tournament. At some point, I feared that they would be required to beat UConn. That time has come. I have a tremendous amount of respect for the UConn program and this team. UConn has won NINE straight NCAA Tournament games by 13 points or more. No school in the history of college basketball has ever done that. Bob Knight and the Hoosiers did it six straight back in 1981. That's the closest thing to what the Huskies have accomplished. I still view the 1991 UNLV team as the best college basketball team of my lifetime. 30+ years later and I can still name that starting five. In the Final Four that year, UNLV was 34-0, they had won 45 straight games, they had the #1, #9, and #12 picks in the NBA draft that summer, they were favored by 9.5 points over Duke. Funny, that's the same line as this one. Duke upset UNLV that night. This is deja vu all over again.

Game 2: Alabama -2.5 vs. Clemson

This will be short and sweet. I congratulate the Clemson coaches, players, and fans. I was wrong again. Upset win over New Mexico with the Lobos shooting 29.7%. Upset win over Baylor with the Bears shooting just 38.9%. Upset win over Arizona with the Wildcats shooting 37.3%. 3 games, 3 upsets, 3 teams shooting well below average, 3 early double-digit leads. Some would call that a trend. I will call it the ultimate fade opportunity. Alabama, put your dancing shoes on, I have you headed to your first ever Final Four. Roll Tide!

Game 3: Duke -6 vs. North Carolina State

ACC Showdown in Dallas. Duke won the first meeting of the season 79-64, North Carolina State won the second meeting in the ACC Tournament 74-69. If you think Clemson has been on a magical run, listen to this. NC State upset Syracuse winning by 18 as a 1.5-point dog, upset Duke by 5 as an 11-point dog, upset Virginia by 8 as a 2.5-point dog, upset North Carolina by 8 as a 10-point dog, upset Texas Tech by 13 as a 4.5-point dog, upset Marquette by 9 as a 6.5-point dog. Wolfpack have won 8 straight elimination games. On a neutral floor a couple weeks ago, Duke was favored by 11. 6 looks like value. I'll lay the points.

Game 4: Purdue -2.5 vs. Tennessee

A rematch from Maui, Purdue won the first meeting 71-67. Purdue is 8-0 this year against teams that advanced to the Sweet 16, offense is ranked 3^rd in the nation. Tennessee has 4 wins over teams still in this tournament and has a D that is ranked 3^rd in the nation. Listening to the postgame show tonight, they almost sold me on the Volunteers. Virginia won the tournament the year after losing to a 16-seed, Purdue suffered last year after losing to FDU and on Sunday they will get celebrate a trip to Final Four for the first time since 1980.

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Update

Sat, 30 Mar 2024 02:37:49 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @ActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

Action comment: Last year, we took away the timeless nature of baseball by adding a pitch clock that changed the very fabric of baseball. This year, I wave the white flag and accept the challenge to bet on 6 outs of baseball. Crazy!

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 5-1, 83.3%, up 2.9951 units

@KotaCapperKyle 0-0, 0%, up 0 units

@MrActionJunkie1's Plays (dropped on the podcast last night)

NRFI/No Run First Inning

New York Yankees @ Houston Astros (+110)

Couple excellent lineups so this is high risk. Marcus Stroman makes his Yankees debut, 2.61 ERA this spring. Last out, 6 innings, 0 runs against the Pirates. 3 of his 4 starts in March resulted in 0 runs allowed. Hunter Brown is on the bump for Astros, 2.12 ERA this spring. Let's get 6 outs before anyone hits the board.

YRFI/Yes Run First Inning

Washington Nationals @ Cincinnati Reds (-120)

Patrick Corbin struggled early last year, struggled this spring with a 5.51 ERA. Hunter Greene has a ton of potential, struggled this spring with a 7.20 ERA. Hitter friendly park. Let's get a run in the 1st.

St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-130)

Lance Lynn had a 7.90 ERA, 1.68 WHIP this spring. Yamamoto had an 8.38 ERA, 1.97 WHIP this spring and got shelled last week against the Padres. I think one of these two teams will scratch across a run in the opening frame.

@KotaCapperKyle's Plays:

TBD

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Update

Fri, 29 Mar 2024 14:03:07 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @ActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

YTD Standings:

@MrActionJunkie1 3-1, 75%, up 1.3168 units

@KotaCapperKyle 0-0, 0%, up 0 units

@MrActionJunkie1's Plays (dropped on the podcast last night)

NRFI/No Run First Inning

Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies (-130 on DraftKings)

Spencer Strider vs. Zack Wheeler. Strider had a 0.79 ERA this spring over 22.2 innings, Wheeler had a 1.26 ERA over 14.1 innings. Both teams can crush the ball, one swing to beat you is a big risk on this one. Still, I'll take good pitching over good hitting.

YRFI/Yes Run First Inning

San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres (-110 on DraftKings)

Both pitchers struggled this spring with WHIPs of 1.88 and 1.83. Musgrove gave up 5 runs over 2.2 innings in his regular season debut last week, he had a 10.80 ERA in April last year. Just need 1. Let's get a run!

@KotaCapperKyle's Plays:

TBD

It's Tournament Time! Sweet 16 Picks for Friday

Fri, 29 Mar 2024 13:49:56 +0000

NCAA Tournament Sides: 32-23-1, 58.2%

Conference Tournament Totals: 165-127-5, 56.5%

Conference Tournament Sides: 165-129-3, 56.1%

NCAA Tournament Totals: 22-32-2, 40.7%

1H Totals: Everything to the UNDER

North Carolina State/Marquette	72
Gonzaga/Purdue	73
Duke/Houston	62.5
Creighton/Tennessee	67.5

Sides:

Marquette -6.5 vs. North Carolina State

Big East vs. ACC battle. KenPom numbers have Marquette by 6. Marquette is 27-9 with 5 of those losses to teams still in this tournament. That's what can happen when you have played UConn 3x. Golden Eagles have played the 8^th toughest schedule, won at Illinois, beat Kansas in Maui, beat Texas and Creighton at home. Rebounding is a concern but it's not a big strength for the Wolfpack. NC State has been a magical 1983 like run winning 7 straight games. In the regular season, NC State went 0-5 vs. Top 20 KenPom teams with losses of 9, 9, 13, 9, and 15. Marquette ranks #13, I think they can pull away and avoid the foul game.

Purdue -5.5 vs. Gonzaga

Purdue has the pressure; Gonzaga is back on the spoiler role again. Purdue demolished Utah State in the RD of 32 by 39 points. Boilermakers beat Gonzaga by 10 back in November, Purdue went 7-0 this year vs. teams in the Sweet 16. 3^rd best on offense, 15^th best on defense, they've played the 6^th toughest schedule. They check all the boxes for a Final Four team. Zags are peaking at the right time winning 9 of 10, 100^th ranked schedule, went 0-3 against teams in the Sweet 16 with losses of 10, 13, and 10. Gonzaga improved during the year, not enough for me to flip on Purdue. I'll lay the points.

Creighton +2.5 vs. Tennessee

What have we lacked in this tournament? Buzzer beaters! I feel like this is going to be the game. Tennessee is #30 on offense, #3 on defense, 3-2 against teams in the Sweet 16. Creighton is #10 on offense, #23 on defense, 3-2 against teams in the Sweet 16. Rick Barnes hasn't reached an Elite 8 since 2008 at Texas. Greg McDermott had Creighton in the Elite 8 last year before losing by 1 to San Diego State. Creighton has 3 options averaging 17 points per game, Tennessee has one really good option averaging over 12. The best player might belong to Tennessee, scoring options belong to Creighton. I'll grab the points with the Bluejays.

Houston -4 vs. Duke

I refuse to handicap this game. If I handicap it, I will probably want to grab the points with Duke. I have Illinois over Houston in my National Championship. Houston has the #2 defense in the country, #14 offense. Went just 1-2 against teams in the Sweet 16, all 3 games against Iowa State. For as good as the Big 12 ranked all year, Cougars are the last one standing. I'm not looking at Duke, I can't do it. Give me the Cougars.

No Runs or More Runs - NRFI/YRFI Update

Thu, 28 Mar 2024 14:28:32 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle (new school, fun) vs. @ActionJunkie1 (old school, boring)

YTD Standings:

@KotaCapperKyle 0-0, 0%, up 0 units

@ActionJunkie1 0-0, 0%, up 0 units

@ActionJunkie1's Opening Day Plays (dropped on the podcast last night)

NRFI/No Run First Inning

Tigers @ White Sox (-130)

Both pitchers had an excellent spring with ERAs of 2.57 & 2.13. Teams ranked 27^th and 29^th in scoring last year.

Cardinals @ Dodgers (-105)

Both pitchers had an excellent spring with ERAs of 2.14 & 0.90. Glasnow is great. Mikolas might have his 2022 stuff back.

Guardians @ Athletics (-140)

Both teams are projected in the B5 for runs per game, Coliseum is a T5 pitcher friendly park, Shane Bieber had a great spring and is really good. I'm hoping Alex Wood delivers in his A's debut.

YRFI/Yes Run First Inning

Yankees @ Astros (-120)

Both Framber Valdez & Nestor Cortes had a 7.71 ERA and 1.93 WHIP this spring. Same numbers, different number of innings pitched. Numbers like that with a couple T5 lineups, let's hit the board in the 1st.

@KotaCapperKyle's Opening Day Plays:

TBD

It's Tournament Time! Sweet 16 Picks for Thursday

Thu, 28 Mar 2024 12:58:47 +0000

NCAA Tournament Sides 30-21-1, 58.8%

Conference Tournament Totals 165-127-5, 56.5%

Conference Tournament Sides 165-129-3, 56.1%

NCAA Tournament Totals 20-30-2, 40.0%

Terrible run for the tradition of betting 1H unders in postseason play. I will play the system until the end of the tournament. Law of large numbers doesn't favor us as much compared to the conference tournaments given the number of games. With only 14 games to go, system is almost guaranteed to be unprofitable in the big dance this year. It happens, this is gambling.

Thursday Totals

Clemson/Arizona	72
San Diego State/UConn	64
Alabama/North Carolina	83
Illinois/Iowa State	68.5

Arizona -7.5 vs. Clemson

Full Disclosure: I'm overpaying based on most models by 2-3 points. Not a value play to say the least. Arizona is in the Top 10 on both ends of the floor, they won at Duke, Oregon, Colorado. They beat Michigan State & Alabama on a neutral flood, and crushed Wisconsin at home. Plus, Clemson hits my fade list. Upset win over New Mexico with the Lobos shooting 29.7%. Upset win over Baylor with the Bears shooting just 38.9%. Yes, give Clemson a ton of credit, they rank 38^th in the nation on D, they got off to a strong start in both games and controlled the flow. Odds of an underdog doing that in three straight games, that's something that I'll bet against.

San Diego State +11 vs. UConn

I have no one to blame but myself. I'm willingly betting into the best college team in years for the third straight game. I've liked San Diego State all year, this is the ultimate revenge spot for last year in the title game. The computer models are with me on this one. I need UConn to be a college team for 40 minutes of basketball. 23-4 start vs. Stetson, 17-4 start vs. Northwestern. Getting to 5 points early might be the key for the Azteks. I know the definition of insanity and I'm flirting with it.

Illinois +1.5 vs. Iowa State

For anyone that didn't already know that I would be betting Illinois today, welcome to the podcast. Thanks for checking out the show. Iowa State is a dang good basketball team, Illinois is my National Champion. No handicap required. I will say that I'll take Terrence Shannon over anyone in the country right now, Marcus Domask is tough as nails, Coleman Hawkins rounds out the best trio in the tournament. I might end the night with egg on my face and lose by 20 but give me the Fighting Illini.

Alabama +4 vs. North Carolina

Did you know? Hubert Davis is just the 3^rd coach in NCAA history to start 8-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament. Fun fact courtesy of the Action Network. Gary Williams & Andy Enfield are the other two. I picked Alabama in my bracket to win this game. Computer numbers have this game closer to 2. Tar Heels have earned our respect, 29-7. 2-2 this year vs. Top 10 offenses. Lost to UConn & Kentucky giving up 87 points in each. Swept Duke giving up 84 & 79. I have a feeling that Sears can put this Alabama team on his back, he's something special. Don't be shocked if Grant Nelson shows up big tonight for Alabama. Yes, I'm a homer for the kid since I watched him a ton over the years. Remember he attempted 15 triples against Arizona early this year, I think he gets more than his season average of 3 tonight. Will he make them? No idea. I'm on Alabama +4, Roll Tide.

NBA Player Prop Best Bet for Wednesday

Wed, 27 Mar 2024 19:28:42 +0000

Jalen Green (Rockets) Under 26.5 points at Oklahoma City (-130 on DraftKings, -115 on ESPNBet)

Regression spot. Green is averaging 19.6 PPG, 24.6 PPG since the break, 27.8 PPG in March. He's scored 26 or more in SIX straight games. He's shooting 49.6% in March vs. 41.1% before the break. Thunder rank 11^th defending the position, 3^rd in FG % allowed, and 12^th in points allowed. I think the Thunder will cool him off tonight, this is my BEST BET.

@KotaCapperKyle's Best Bet - UNLV @ Seton Hall

Tue, 26 Mar 2024 14:16:03 +0000

@KotaCapperKyle's Best Bet: Seton Hall -4.5 vs. UNLV

The Pirates have been on an absolute tear to end the year, winning four of their last five games. They also got absolutely hosed out of the NCAA tournament, and they unlike other schools in the Big East decided that they wanted to play it out in the NIT. Although they narrowly defeated St. Joes in the opening round, they most recently had a very solid win against North Texas by 14. The Pirates defeat teams on the glass and outrebound their opponents by an average of 5 rebounds per game (they get 37.5 rpg and give up 32.5 rpg). They are playing a UNLV team that is very poor in the rebounding game, as they only get 32.5 rpg. The battle of the glass is what is going to dictate this game, and I think the Pirates have a lot more to prove than the Rebels.

NIT & CBI Plays for Tuesday

Tue, 26 Mar 2024 13:00:49 +0000

NIT:

Indiana State -3 vs. Cincinnati

Non-conference or post season my angle still applies, I love the little school hosting the big school. I found a couple singles in Section 200, 3 singles in Section 218. If you wanted to sit together you would need to hit the secondary market. The Hulman Center will be packed to the rafters on Tuesday. Sycamores rank 18^th on offense, Cincinnati ranks 15^th on defense. This is strength on strength but the home court edge tips the scale for me.

Georgia +8.5 @ Ohio State

The Buckeyes are playing some good basketball, 8-2 over the last 10 including wins over Purdue, Michigan State, and Nebraska. Buckeyes beat Virginia Tech on Saturday shooting just 39.3% from the floor. Georgia has been impressive so far in the NIT, beat Xavier by 2 at home, upset Wake Forest by 6 on the road. Fear some regression might be coming from beyond the arc since the Bulldogs went 14/27 against Wake but I'll going to look past that since they went only 8/24 inside the arc. Bulldogs are 5-6 on the road this year with wins at Florida State & South Carolina. OT loss at Florida, 3-point loss at Arkansas, 1-point loss at LSU. I think they will keep this one interesting; I'll grab the 8.5.

CBI in Orlando:

High Point -2.5 vs. Arkansas State

No rust yesterday for High Point, Panthers now have the 33^rd ranked offense in the county after shooting 53.8% in the 93-74 win over Cleveland State. I wasn't sure how they would respond but they answered the bell and then some. Both teams have similar numbers on defense, ranking 255^th & 256^th in the country. Unlike Cleveland State, Arkansas State has the offense to compete with the Red Wolves ranking 60^th in the country. Arkansas State killed Montana on the offensive glass with 22 rebounds, they rank 30^th in the country. Good news for me, High Point ranks 10^th on the offensive boards and 50^th on the defensive glass. The ability to take away the Red Wolves strength gives the Panthers the edge plus it will be 3 games in 4 days for Arkansas State. I'll lay the points.

Fairfield +6 vs. Seattle U

Both teams beat me yesterday. Seattle was down 6 at home before outscoring Evansville by 20 in the 2H. Fairfield was up 12 before hanging on for the 3-point win over Chicago State. Stags shot 57.7% in that game but got hurt on the boards. Good news, Seattle isn't as good as Chicago State typically on the offensive glass. Seattle has a good D ranking 64th, MAAC conference play should have Fairfield ready since Marist and Saint Peter's both have Top 100 D's and the Stags went 4-2 against those two teams this year. I think Fairfield will have enough offense to keep it interesting.

CBI/CIT Plays for Monday

Mon, 25 Mar 2024 17:39:19 +0000

CBI Tournament - Daytona Beach (Games in this tournament were decided by 1, 2, 3, and 7 on Sunday after margins of 1, 2, and 13 on Saturday)

Cleveland State +4.5 vs. High Point

Cleveland State won 51-49 on a buzzer beater over Northern Colorado on Sunday. Both teams struggled from the floor shooting under 34% for the game. The Vikings went only 5/13 at the line but still managed to win. High Point enters this one having last played on March 9^th when they lost in OT to Longwood as the top seed. How will they respond 2 weeks removed from the disappointment? We will find out. High Point ranks #36 in the nation on offense, Cleveland State is #171. Cleveland State has the better D, slightly more Top 200 wins, and has the edge of already playing on this floor. Horizon League member Oakland upset Kentucky in the big dance, Cleveland State beat Oakland this year before being eliminated by 3 in the conference tournament. Grabbing the points feels like the right thing to do.

Arkansas State -2.5 vs. Montana

Montana needed OT to beat the Blue Hose of Presbyterian 82-79 on Sunday. The Grizzlies shot 51.6% for the game, Mr. Moody scored 34 on 14/21 shooting. Arkansas State survived to beat Bethune-Cookman on Saturday 86-85 shooting 52.6% from the floor. Both teams are in the Top 100 on offense but rank 262^nd & 266^th on defense. 3 Top 200 wins this year for Montana, 9 Top 200 wins for Arkansas State. After starting the year 8-13, Red Wolves played well down the stretch losing only to James Madison & Appalachian State. I'll lay the points.

Fairfield -5 vs. Chicago State

Didn't expect to be handicapping a Chicago State game for March 25^th but here we are. Cougars hadn't played since February 19^th but managed to upset UC San Diego 77-75 on Saturday thanks to Cardet & Corbett combining for 52. At 13-18, Chicago State is the Cinderella of the CBI. Fairfield trailed by 9, rallied to beat Little Rock on Sunday by 7. Chicago State had 1 Top 200 win during the year, upset Northwestern by 2. Cougars rank 294^th on offense, 253^rd on defense. Stags of Fairfield had 4 Top 200 wins during the year with the best of the bunch winning at Yale. Ken Pom has Fairfield by 7, 5 feels a little low so I'm going to lay the points.

Evansville +6 vs. Seattle U

Purple Aces of Evansville trailed by 9 in the 1H then hung on in the 2H for the 64-63 win over Quinnipiac on Sunday. Seattle U put together the biggest win of the tournament on Saturday beating Delaware State by 13, Redhawks had 22 points off turnovers and 13 offensive rebounds to help the cause. Seattle had a pair of Top 100 wins over Louisiana Tech & Grand Canyon at home during the season, they rank 71^st on D. Evansville beat Bradley at home for the lone Top 100 win on the season. 245^th ranked offense, 176^th ranked defense. The way the tournament has been going, I'll grab the 6 with the team from the Missouri Valley Conference.

CIT - 1 Game

Purdue Fort Wayne +6 @ Tarleton State

Texans of Tarleton are now 25-9, beat Texas Southern by 11 and Abilene Christian by 27 at home last week. They rank 108^th on offense, 166^th on defense. Mastodons of Purdue Fort Wayne are 22-12, advanced with a nice road win at Bowling Green on Wednesday. PFW ranks 195^th on offense, 137^th on defense. Purdue Fort Wayne has won 11 games away from home this year including a 19-point win at Oakland. Good road team getting 6, I'll grab the points.

It's Tournament Time! Round of 32 Bets for Sunday

Sat, 23 Mar 2024 18:22:41 +0000

My NCAA Tournament Results

ATS/Sides: 28-16, 63.6%, up 9.4548 units

1H Totals/Unders: 18-24-2, 42.8%, down 8.3472 units

Sunday Totals: (Always Under)

Colorado/Marquette	69.5
Utah State/Purdue	69.5
James Madison/Duke	70
Clemson/Baylor	68
Grand Canyon/Alabama	79
Northwestern/UConn	64
Texas A&M/Houston	62.5
Yale/San Diego State	60.5

ATS/Sides:

Northwestern +14.5 vs. UConn

Betting into UConn is a bad idea, defending champs, 32-3, #2 on offense, #11 on defense, #1 Overall in the Ken Pom numbers. Huskies against Top 40 teams this year have a 10-2 record. Of those 10 wins the only wins by more than 14 were against one team this year, Marquette winning by 28 & 16. Northwestern ranks #38, 11 losses on the season, only Illinois beat them by more than 14. That was a 30-point defeat. Northwestern played tough a couple times this year vs. a #1 seed beating Purdue at home, losing to Purdue in OT on the road. They also beat Illinois at home this year. The Wildcats are tough, they shot terrible in the 1H against FAU, and survived in OT. I think they will put up a fight and cash the +14.5.

Utah State +11.5 vs. Purdue

I backed both of these teams on Friday and cashed. Utah State helped save face for the Mountain West with the impressive win over TCU. The Aggies are 28-6 on the season and might be even better than I thought with multiple 1^st Team All-Conference players. Conference losses scare me, lost to New Mexico by 13, San Diego State by 14, Nevada by 14, Colorado State by 20, and San Diego State by 16. When they lose, it has been by double digits. Still, they rank 29^th on offense, 67^th on defense, and have 6 Top 50 wins. Purdue beat 2-seed Tennessee by 4, beat 2-seed Marquette by 3, beat 2-seed Arizona by 8, beat 4-seed Alabama by 6, beat 5-seed Gonzaga by 10, and swept my favorite 3-seed Illinois in the Big 10 winning by 5 & 6. 12 wins for Purdue against Top 50 teams this year. ZERO of those wins were by more than 10 points. I love Purdue, I have them in my Final Four, but I can't pass up 11.5 today.

Grand Canyon +6.5 vs. Alabama

Get ready for some points. Alabama has the #3 offense in the country, #117 defense. Grand Canyon ranks #56 on offense, #42 on defense. Heck of a win on Friday for the Antelopes over Saint Mary's. Now 30-4 on the season. Alabama has only 1 Top 50 win away from home and that was at Mississippi State, SEC hasn't looked the best so far in the Big Dance, lack of defense scares me. Loyal listener DJ is a big fan of the Tide, I think they still win but unless the Lopes go cold shooting, I can't trust the Crimson Tide to cover the number.

Marquette -4 vs. Colorado

Marquette got down, then turned on the jets to win and cover on Friday vs. Western Kentucky. Golden Eagles are Top 20 on both ends of the floor, won at Illinois, beat Kansas in Maui, beat Creighton and Texas at home. Colorado ranks 21^st on offense, 43^rd on defense. Buffalos have already won a pair of games this week, beat Boise State in the play-in, beat Florida in the 102-100 triller on Friday. I want to grab the points but I'm not sure how much Colorado has left in the tank. Marquette should only be better in Kolek's second game back, I'll lay the points.

San Diego State -5.5 vs. Yale

Last year, #5 San Diego State beat Charleston in the first round by 6, then beat 13-seed Furman by 23 in the second round. This year #5 San Diego State beat UAB by 4 in the first round and get to face another 13-seed in the second round. Yale won a trilling finish over Auburn on Friday. I don't expect a repeat tonight. I have been high on San Diego State all year and the Azteks still have the ingredients to make a run in this tournament. I'll lay the points.

Houston -9.5 vs. Texas A&M

Last 3 games for Texas A&M: Scored 97 against Kentucky, 90 against Florida, and 98 about Nebraska. The Houston D will be a rude awakening today. Good news for A&M, they faced Houston once already this season rallying from 21 down to lose by only 4. Texas A&M has been hot of late, but they have 14 losses and have been uncompetitive several times this year. Lost by 12 at Virginia scoring only 47, lost by 15 to LSU scoring only 53, lost to Alabama by 25, lost at Tennessee by 35 scoring only 51. Frustration could mount early going from easy looks to a suffocating D. I'm sure Kelvin Sampson prepped plenty this week for Texas A&M, I think the Cougars will get a statement win today by double digits.

Baylor -4.5 vs. Clemson

Clemson crushed New Mexico on Friday; Lobos shot just 29.7% from the field in that game. Clemson ranks #25 on offense, #46 on defense, won at Alabama, won at North Carolina, and lost at Duke by only 1 point. Tigers have upside. The numbers say that I should back them today, value on Clemson. Eye test is telling me that Clemson caught New Mexico at the right time, Baylor has the #5 offense and could quickly put the Tigers in a bad spot today. I'll laying the points with the Bears.

Duke -7 vs. James Madison

I tip my cap to James Madison, never trailed on Friday beating Wisconsin by 11. The Dukes scored 27 points off 19 Badger turnovers. Duke ranks 31^st in turnover % so I'm not expecting to see a repeat today. Duke ranks #8 on defense, #22 on offense. Blue Devils lost in the RD of 32 last year as the 5-seed, this year I expect them to advance as the 4-seed. The last two losses for Duke are both already in the Sweet 16, maybe the ACC was better than I thought. I think the Blue Devils get some separation and cover the number.

It's Tournament Time! Round of 32 Bets for Saturday

Fri, 22 Mar 2024 18:22:41 +0000

My NCAA Tournament Results

ATS/Sides: 23-13, 63.9%, up 7.9093 units

1H Totals/Unders: 15-19-2, 44.1%, down 5.956 units

Saturday Totals: (Always Under)

Dayton/Arizona	70.5
Gonzaga/Kansas	71.5
Michigan State/North Carolina	65.5
Washington State/Iowa State	61
Oakland/North Carolina State	69.5
Texas/Tennessee	69
Duquesne/Illinois	70
Oregon/Creighton	69

Sides:

Dayton +9.5 vs. Arizona

Dayton might be the end of me. I had Nevada on Thursday; Flyers broke my heart. I backed Dayton several times on the road, never seemed to work out for me. Loss @ Loyola was the most painful of the bunch. They played within 14 on a neutral against Houston, lost at Northwestern by 5. Ken Pom numbers have this at 6, Flyers rank 21^st on offense, 69^th on defense. I have Arizona in my Final 4, I really like this team. Top 10 on both ends of the floor. I hate to bet against them, but the numbers say I should, the early tip tells me that I should, and maybe by backing Dayton that will allow me to keep my Final 4 team in it since Dayton always seems to do what I don't want to see happen. Let's grab the 9.5.

Kansas +4.5 vs. Gonzaga

I'm almost embarrassed to back Kansas, dropped 4 of 5 down the stretch losing by 8 at home against BYU, lost by 8 at Baylor, lost at Houston by 30, lost on a neutral by 20 to Cincinnati before surviving with a 4-point win over Samford shooting 60% but turning it over 18 times. They don't have McCullar, they lost 10 games, they finished 5^th in the Big 12. Let's focus on what they do have. Dickinson was 1^st Team All-Conference, put up 19 points - 20 rebounds on Thursday, Dajuan Harris was 1^st Team All-Defense, Johnny Furphy was 1^st Team All-Freshman in the tough Big 12. The Jayhawks beat Tennessee & Kentucky on a neutral floor, they beat a pair of #1's at home beating both UConn & Houston. Beating a 3-seed Baylor at home is the 5^th best win this season for Kansas. Zags kicked my butt on Thursday with McNeese, they won at Kentucky, they won at Saint Mary's, they have a top-level offense ranking 8^th in the country. Zags are good, but something is telling me not count out Kansas, let's do it. Rock Chalk Jayhawk. Give me the points.

North Carolina -3.5 vs. Michigan State

I cashed in on Michigan State to open the dance on Thursday, getting that first win is always the toughest for me so I will thank this team for that. Ken Pom has the Tar Heels by 3, computer numbers have loved Michigan State all season, 1-seeds reach the Sweet 16 84.2% of the time. The Spartans have Izzo, they have played the 7^th best schedule, they beat Baylor & Illinois, they lost 5 games by 3 or less this year including at Illinois. They key for me; they LOST 14 games and were inconsistent most of the year. Prior to the win over Mississippi State, they had lost 5 of 7. North Carolina ranks 18^th on offense, 7^th on defense, they beat Tennessee, swept Duke, beat NC State twice, won at Clemson. 28-7 on the season. On court performance has earned my respect. I'll lay the points.

Iowa State -6.5 vs. Washington State

Pac 12 is 5-0 so far in the tournament, Washington State was good enough to beat Arizona twice, won at Oregon, beat Colorado. Cougars are ranked 22^nd on D, 68^th on offense. Iowa State ranks 52^nd on offense, 2^nd on defense. I have so much respect for Houston, Cyclones beat them twice including the 28 pounding in the Big 12 Championship, that speaks volumes. Baylor looked unstoppable yesterday, Iowa State beat them by 14 in the Big 12 semifinal, lost by 2 at Baylor. They won at tournament teams TCU and Texas. Crowd edge to Iowa State in Omaha, I'll lay the points.

Oakland +6.5 vs. North Carolina State

These are all tough games to handicap. Ken Pom has North Carolina State by 7. One of my favorite handicaps is to talk regression stats. On the season, both of these teams shot 45% from the floor. North Carolina State shot 50.9% vs. Texas Tech on Thursday, 54.9% vs. North Carolina in the ACC title, 48.3% vs. Virginia in the ACC semifinal, 45.9% vs. Duke in the ACC quarterfinals. All four games above average shooting. Oakland hit a ton of 3's but only hit 41.3% vs. Kentucky on Thursday, they shot 43.5% in the Horizon Championship vs. Milwaukee, shot 38.7% in the Horizon League semifinal vs. Cleveland State. Golden Grizzles have won 3 straight elimination games with subpar shooting. Flip the script game for me, I'll grab the points.

Tennessee -6.5 vs. Texas

Rick Barnes gets to face his old assistant and the program that fired him with a trip to the Sweet 16 on the line. My level of concern with this wager has increased since watching most of the SEC struggle in this tournament. Volunteers rank 3^rd on D, 28^th on offense. Beat Illinois, Wisconsin, and North Carolina State in the non-conference, lost to Purdue, Kansas, and North Carolina. Tennessee won at Kentucky, Alabama, and South Carolina in the conference. Vols are more than capable of winning 5 more. I tip my cap to Texas, nice W over Colorado State. Top 40 team on both ends, up and down 9-9 in the Big 12, I'm not a believer in the Longhorns. I'll lay the points.

Illinois -9.5 vs. Duquesne

Illinois is my national champ; I'm going to back them until the end. No handicap is required, magical ride ends tonight for the Dukes.

Creighton -4.5 vs. Oregon

The number keeps dropping, 4.5 is a really good number in my opinion on Creighton. The two winningest coaches in Creighton history get to face each other, as Coach Greg McDermott said this week, Dana Altman is still beloved in Omaha taking a program from 1,500 fans a game into a 17,000-seat sold out arena. Averaging 45.7% from the floor during the year the Ducks shot 59.6% against South Carolina on Thursday. Metrics on both ends of the floor strongly favor Creighton, scoring options favor Creighton with 3 veterans averaging 17+ points per game, but the Ducks have a 1-2 punch that combined for 63 on Thursday. Blue Jays have wins over UConn, Marquette, & Alabama. I'll lay the 4.5 as Coach Mac beats the legend that he replaced in Omaha.

@KotaCapperKyle's NCAA Tournament Card

Thu, 21 Mar 2024 02:52:02 +0000

Mississippi State +1.5

BYU -10

BYU/Duquesne Over 142

Creighton -12.5

Long Beach State +20.5

UNC/Wagner Over 133.5

Illinois/Morehead State Under 146.5

Oregon PK

Nevada -1.5

Texas -1.5

Kentucky -13.5

McNeese State +6.5

Gonzaga/McNeese State Under 149.5

South Dakota State +16

St. Peter's +21.5

North Carolina State ML +180

North Carolina State +5

Samford +7

Samford ML +240

Drake -1.5

It's Tournament Time! Big Dance Card (Tuesday-Friday)

Mon, 18 Mar 2024 10:41:23 +0000

Here we go again. It's time to dance. Still waiting on 2 totals for Friday.

1H Unders:

Wagner/Howard	59.5
Colorado State/Virginia	55
Grambling/Montana State	62
Colorado/Boise State	65
Michigan State/Mississippi State	60
Duquesne/BYU	66.5
Akron/Creighton	65.5
Long Beach State/Arizona	77
Morehead State/Illinois	70
Oregon/South Carolina	61.5
Nevada/Dayton	64.5
Oakland/Kentucky	78.5
McNeese/Gonzaga	69.5
South Dakota State/Iowa State	62.5
North Carolina State/Texas Tech	68.5
Saint Peter's/Tennessee	62.5
Samford/Kansas	71
Drake/Washington State	64.5
Wagner/North Carolina	63.5
Colorado State/Texas	67.5
Northwestern/Florida Atlantic	65
Colgate/Baylor	64.5
UAB/San Diego State	64
Western Kentucky/Marquette	76
New Mexico/Clemson	70.5
Yale/Auburn	65
Texas A&M/Nebraska	67.5
Vermont/Duke	62
Charleston/Alabama	82.5
Longwood/Houston	60
James Madison/Wisconsin	67.5
TCU/Utah State	69.5
Grand Canyon/Saint Mary's	60.5
Stetson/UConn	71
Colorado/Florida	75
Grambling/Purdue	66

Sides:

Colorado State -1.5 vs. Virginia

Both teams are Top 40 on defense. Colorado State is 42nd in offensive efficiency, Virginia ranks 194th plus as I learned the hard way in a tight game the Cavaliers rank 349th in FT shooting.

Wagner +3.5 vs. Howard

Was 3, now 3.5, by the time you are listening to this, I'm hoping you can get 4. Wagner is out of the Northeast; Fairleigh Dickinson won last year as a 16-seed. 16 wins on the year, 9 true road wins including all 3 games in the tournament. I like to see things like that. I don't like that they rank 358^th in 2 PT % or 334^th in offense efficiency. Best win: @ Stony Brook ranked 171st. Howard won 6 games on the road, 3 on a neutral to win the MEAC. Defense ranks 334th, they rank 354^th in turnovers giving the ball away 21.7% of the time. Best win: @ La Salle ranked 195th. Ken Pom numbers have a line of 2, I'll grab the 3.5 and back the Seahawks.

Boise State +2.5 vs. Colorado

I was going to wait for 3, felt more of a risk dropping to 2. Not sure if I will be right or wrong on that. Winning away from home is tough in college basketball. Boise State beat FOUR tournament teams away from home with wins over Saint Mary's, Nevada, New Mexico, and San Diego State. I'm sold.

Grambling State +4 vs. Montana State

Grambling played the 4^th toughest non-conference schedule, 0-10 vs. DI teams, best performance was a 12-point loss @ Drake. Tigers went 14-4 in the SWAC, won 9 of 10 to finish up the season. Montana State was just 13-17 before the upset of Weber State that helped spark the shocking 3-game run in the Big Sky Tournament. I think the Bobcats have more upside, won @ Cal during the non-conference but they also lost multiple home games in February to teams ranked 300+, Grambling is better than that. I'll grab the 4 with the Tigers against the Bobcats.

Michigan State -1.5 vs. Mississippi State

Last Big 10 team to win a National Championship, Michigan State in 2000. The Big 10 has been getting its teeth kicked in year after year after year. I might have a Big 10 bias, but I truly think the Big 10 will be dangerous this year in the tournament. Spartans are just a bit better on both ends of the floor, I think Izzo gets the Big 10 off to a good start in the opening game on Thursday.

Nevada -1 vs. Dayton

Dayton frustrated me down the stretch, I lost money on them. Meanwhile, Nevada did everything that I could ask for winning at Utah State, at Colorado State, and at Boise State. I'm going to back the team that won three games down the stretch at tournament teams.

Washington State PK vs. Drake

Might shock some people that I'm going against a Valley school in this one. I love Tucker DeVries, he's averaging 21.8 PPG for Drake. The 19-point win against Nevada on a neutral floor was impressive, 5-1 record against Bradley & Indiana State was also impressive. They have the better numbers on offense, but Washington State swept Arizona, won at Oregon, beat Colorado, and beat Boise State on a neutral floor. I'm can't overlook that so I'm backing the Cougars.

South Carolina PK vs. Oregon

I love Dana Altman, Ducks just had a great run to win the Pac 12, big fella down low looks unstoppable, peaking at the right time, getting healthy down the stretch will be the discussion points for the Ducks. BUT Dante has been playing since mid-January, he shot 70% on the season, he played in all EIGHT conference losses so I'm not going to overreact. I underestimated South Carolina all year. They beat Grand Canyon on a neutral floor, they won at Tennessee, they won at Texas A&M, they won at Mississippi State. All tournament teams plus they beat Florida & Kentucky. It's time for me to give them the respect they deserve.

BYU -7.5 vs. Duquesne

I can't play this one fast enough. BYU has the 11th best offense in the country, Duquesne ranks 166th. Dukes finished strong winning 8 straight after starting 0-5 in the A-10. Duquesne played 4 games against Top 50 opponents: lost at Nebraska by 10, lost to Dayton by 10, lost at Dayton by 16, and then upset Dayton in the A-10 tournament. BYU beat San Diego State, Iowa State, Texas, Baylor, TCU, and won at Kansas. They have 6 Top 50 wins. Give me the Cougars.

Illinois -12 vs. Morehead State

I was going to play this at 13.5, I will gladly play it at 12. Everyone knows by now that I'm extremely high on Illinois, multiple 1st Team All-Conference players, maybe the top player in the country right now. Morehead State has improved during the year after losing to Alabama by 32, Purdue by 30, and Penn State by 23. Still, have you seen the Illinois offense? Morehead State ranks 120th on D, this might be track meet early, but the Fighting Illini will run away in the 2H.

Creighton -12.5 vs. Akron

The Big East was disrespected on Selection Sunday. Creighton is Top 25 in the nation on both ends of the floor, they won at Nebraska by 29. They beat Alabama, they beat the defending champ and top seed UConn, they beat Marquette. Akron ranks 162nd on offense, 97th on defense. I'll lay the points before the number increases.

Kentucky -13.5 vs. Oakland

Total in this one is 163. Holy cow! Both teams are outside the Top 100 on D. Kentucky ranks 5th on offense, Oakland ranks 135th. It's Kentucky, it's Coach Cal, anything can happen but this time around Kentucky can score. I think they can also cover.

Tennessee -19.5 vs. Saint Peter's

Both teams can play D. Tennessee ranks 29th on offense, Saint Peter's ranks 305 in the nation. Last year, I backed offenses ranked in the 300's, didn't end well for me so I'm not doing it this year.

North Carolina State +5.5 vs. Texas Tech

5 wins in 5 days for the Wolfpack to win the ACC. Will they have anything left in the tank after that emotional run? Not sure but we will find out. Top 50 team on offense beat North Carolina, Duke, 2 wins over Virginia, won @ Clemson, kept it within single digits against Tennessee on a neutral floor. Texas Tech has 9 Top 100 wins, 3 of those away from home beating Texas, Oklahoma, and BYU. I think this could be one of the best games of the day decided on the final possession, so I'll grab the points.

McNeese State +6.5 vs. Gonzaga

This would be a no play for me but I'm forcing myself to bet on this game. I like the West Coast Conference, I like the Zags, they have excellent wins @ Kentucky and @ Saint Mary's. Will Wade at the Cowboys are a wildcard team, 30-3 playing only 2 Top 100 opponents. Lost to Louisiana Tech by 9, beat VCU by 11. Computer metrics are strong, rank 51^st on offense, 84^th on defense. They beat UAB by 21 on the road, they won at Michigan by 11, they won conference tournament games by 19 & 16. 18-point average margin of victory in the Southland. I'm not sure what to expect but I'm interested, let's grab the points.

Samford +7.5 vs. Kansas

IF McCullar & Dickinson play and are both 90% for Kansas, I will regret this play. Samford is 29-5, got crushed 98-45 @ Purdue to open the season. Best win: Beat Belmont by 6. Kansas has the better resume, 10^th ranked D, but they struggled away from home in conference losing 7 games, finished they season losing by 30 to Houston & 20 to Cincinnati. Offensively, teams are similar with Kansas ranking 65th, Samford ranks 69th. I have a feeling this will be one of those games that Kansas can't shake them, it will be in doubt and the under 4 timeout.

South Dakota State +16.5 vs. Iowa State

Cyclones have the #1 D in the nation, just beat my #1 team Houston 69-41 to win the Big 12 Tournament Championship. TJ got his first head coaching job at South Dakota State, took the Jackrabbits to the dance 2 of his 3 years. South Dakota State disappointed for much of the season, Summit was down significantly this year, but then the Jacks rattled off 8 straight to end the year. I really expected to get more than this, Iowa State ranks 55^th on offense, they can play some ugly games. I think the Jacks are good enough to keep it interesting. I'll grab the points.

Arizona -19.5 vs. Long Beach State

I slept on this one and flip flopped. Big Dan Monson guy, I will be cheering for them, but my money will be on Arizona. Princeton upset Arizona in the 2/15 game last year. Wildcats will be locked in and out for blood this year. Long Beach State ranked 303^rd in 3-pointers on the season, 3's saved them last week and will bury them on Thursday. Arizona is #8 on offense, #12 on defense. Might be interesting in the 1H but once Long Beach State needs to hit from distance it could get ugly.

North Carolina -24 vs. Wagner

This thing is steaming fast, I had on my list at -22.5 and it jumped quick. Wagner has no depth to foul, North Carolina averages 23 free throws per game. Wagner ranks 332nd on offense, North Carolina ranks 24. 1 vs. 16 games in my early days going to Vegas were always lines of -40 to -45. This one has the potential to finish in that range.

Colorado State +3 vs. Texas

Tuesday night only reinforced how much I like Colorado State. Rams are Top 40 on both ends of the floor, beat Creighton on neutral floor by 21, and have 7 wins vs. NCAA tournament teams. No knock on Texas, solid club, Max Abmas is fun to watch, #19 on offense, 6 Top 50 wins this season. As of this moment, I plan to back everyone from the Mountain West on Thursday & Friday. I like this team, I like the MWC this year. I'll grab the 3.

Stetson +26.5 vs. UConn

I don't like double digit numbers; it is tough for me to handicap. Why am I willing to lay 24 with North Carolina and 19.5 with Tennessee but not lay 26.5 with the #1 team? Good question. Saint Peter's ranks 306^th on offense, Wagner ranks 332^nd on offense. Stetson ranks 102nd. That's all I have, plus Ken Pom has UConn by only 23.

Clemson +2.5 vs. New Mexico

I struggled with this game. The love that I'm seeing for New Mexico and the lack of a line move is scaring me. Lobos had to win 4 games in 4 days including wins over Boise State, Colorado State, and San Diego State. They won all 3 of those by 7 or more. Without that, sounds like the Lobos would've been out of the tournament. Pitino has a ton of talent on the roster, but they go just 4-6 in the final 10 of the regular season including the home loss to 9-22 Air Force. Clemson beat Boise State by 17 in the NC, won at Alabama, beat TCU on a neutral floor, won at North Carolina. Not bad, they also lost at home to Georgia Tech and at Notre Dame plus they lost 3 of 4 to end the season. Not good. Tyler has been nailing these Mountain West picks, he loves New Mexico, very possible that I'm going to kick myself, but something is telling me to grab the points.

Utah State +4.5 vs. TCU

Mountain West got 6 teams into the dance, yet the conference winner is a multi-possession underdog in the opening round against the 7^th best team in the Big 12. Utah State ranks higher in offensive efficiency, they had TWO 1^st Team All-Conference players. I like teams with multiple top end players so I'm grabbing the points.

Baylor -13.5 vs. Colgate

Colgate went 16-2 in the Patriot, 6-7 in the NC losing to Arizona by 27, Iona by 20, Yale by 18, and Illinois by 17 to name a name. Raiders rank 209^th on offense, while Baylor ranks 6th. That's enough for me to lay the points.

Marquette -14.5 vs. Western Kentucky

Western Kentucky went 22-11 without losing a game by more than 10 points. Toughest opponent: Conference foe Louisiana Tech ranked #98, they split during the season. Hilltoppers lost 4 straight prior to running the table at the conference tournament. WKU ranks 190^th on offense, Marquette #22. Golden Eagles beat Xavier by 24, Providence by 22, Texas by 21, Seton Hall by 18, Kansas by 14. I'll lay the number.

Longwood +24.5 vs. Houston

Tons of people I respect are on Houston in the 1H, that might be a good play. For the game, Ken Pom has Houston 19. Rare to see a 5.5-point edge against that number so I'm not going to pass it up.

Grand Canyon +5.5 vs. Saint Mary's

Bryce Drew and the Antelopes are a trendy upset pick, 29-4 on the year, South Carolina was the only NC loss on the season. Best win: Beat San Diego State. Both teams are in the Top 65 on both ends of the floor, this should be a good quality basketball game, I'm a big Gaels fan but I can't justify laying 5.5.

Wisconsin -5 vs. James Madison

I really like how the Badgers responded at the Big 10 tournament, defense improved, offense looked great. Badgers are ranked #12 in the nation in offensive efficiency. Never thought that I would see that. Badgers beat Marquette, Purdue, and swept Michigan State. JMU had the big marque win @ Michigan State to open the season, that was the only Top 100 win this year. I'll lay the points.

Alabama -9.5 vs. Charleston

Pat Kelsey is one of my favorite coaches. My wife wants to visit Charleston, I love the tempo they play, 58^th best offense in the country. Alabama can score, 3^rd best offense in the country, lost 4 of 6 down the stretch giving up 117, 105, 102, and 81. The defense is not easy on the eye to watch. Alabama beat Liberty by 45, crushed South Carolina by 27, LSU by 21, Mississippi State by 32, Texas A&M by 25. When Alabama is on, watch out. I'll back the North Dakota kid Grant Nelson and the Tide -9.5.

Duke -12 vs. Vermont

How's this for a handicap? I'll be sitting at the book with a bunch of Duke fans. My ride home is a Duke fan. I'm not betting against Duke. Blue Devils rank 7^th on offense, Catamounts rank 158th.

Nebraska -1 vs. Texas A&M

And then we have NONE. Nebraska is the LAST Power 5 program without an NCAA Tournament win. That ends on Friday. Biggest fear: Huskers rank 36^th in % of points from beyond the arc, teams that live and die from 3 are always a risk but I've watched enough of Nebraska to have faith. The Aggies have a ton of upside, beat Iowa State, Tennessee, & Kentucky twice. They also got swept by Arkansas and lost to Vanderbilt. Wade Taylor will be the best player on the floor, that always concerns me but it's time for the Huskers to taste tournament success.

UAB +7.5 vs. San Diego State

I was wavering on this one. I made a complex decision. I decided if Boise State covered against Colorado, I would bet San Diego State. If not, I would bet UAB. It beats a coinflip.

Purdue -26 vs. Grambling State

After being upset last year in the 1/16 game, I expect Purdue to run it up and leave no doubt. Grambling State ranks 287^th on offense, lost by 32 against Colorado, 55 to Iowa State, 30 to Dayton, 39 to Florida. Purdue ranks 4^th on offense, beat Samford by 53, Morehead State by 30, Texas Southern by 32, Jacksonville by 43, Eastern Kentucky by 27, Michigan by 32, Rutgers by 28. What do all of those teams have in common? They rank higher than Grambling in the Ken Pom numbers. I'll lay the points.

Yale +13 vs. Auburn

Princeton loss to UNLV didn't help my confidence level but Yale ranks Top 100 on both ends of the floor so they can score. They struggled against Brown but got the buzzer beater to survive and advance. Auburn dominated at the SEC tournament, Top 10 team on both ends of the floor, Final 4 threat, but I'm thinking 13 might be a little much. I have a feeling this game will be in doubt at the under 8 timeout.

Florida Atlantic -2.5 vs. Northwestern

I was flopping like a fish over this game. Boo Buie is a big game player. In the end, I'm going to use the words of a Northwestern fan that said, "my head is telling me that we're too damaged and FAU is too capable." That sums it up to me. Northwestern isn't the Northwestern that they could be because of injuries. Florida Atlantic has underachieved, but they still have a ton of talent with tournament experience. Give me the Owls.

Colorado +1.5 vs. Florida

Colorado is much better offensively than they looked on Wednesday against Boise, I love that they can hit clutch FT's down the stretch ranking 16^th in the nation. Gators rank 7^th in the nation in offensive rebounds but lost Center Micah Handlogten in the SEC Tournament. The Gators still have plenty of offense, but I had decided at the time of the bracket that I was picking the winner of the play in game in this one.

It's Tournament Time! 5 Conference Tournament Games

Sat, 16 Mar 2024 18:41:23 +0000

My Conference Tournament Results:

1H Unders: 165-127-5, 56.5%, up 16.484 units

Sides: 165-129-3, 56.1%, up 21.0015 units

WHAT IF Results: (Not betting, just tracking for future reference)

Every Underdog ATS: 141-153-3, 47.9%, down 24.8169 units

Every Underdog ML: 98-199, 32.9%, up 16.78 units

1H UNDERS:

Brown/Yale	63.5
Florida/Auburn	74
Duquesne/VCU	59
Temple/UAB	64.5
Wisconsin/Illinois	70.5

SIDES:

Illinois -2.5 vs. Wisconsin

Illinois got down 15 to Nebraska on Saturday before covering, they got down 10 against Ohio State on Friday. How about a better 1H today? Fighting Illini scoring can compete with anyone, defense will drive me crazy. Illinois won the first meeting by 8 in Madison. Badgers are riding high after the trilling OT win over Purdue. 4th game in 4 days for the Badgers, potential emotional letdown, high scoring opponent. All signs put to Illinois for me.

Auburn -5.5 vs. Florida

4 games in 4 days for the Gators, all high scoring up-tempo games giving up 80, 88, and 90. Florida crushed Auburn 81-65 back in February. Gators rank 5th on offense, 7th on defense in the SEC. Tigers rank 1st on defense, 3rd on offense. Rest edge, revenge edge, computer number edge. I'll lay the points.

VCU -1.5 vs. Duquesne

Duquesne won the lone meeting during the year by 10 @ VCU as a 4.5-point underdog. VCU starters scored just 25 points in that game, odd. Tip your cap to the Dukes, 7 straight wins, #3 ranked D in the A-10. Duquesne ranks 14th in conference on offense but they have figured it out so far in this tournament. Rams rank 7th on offense, 5th on defense. VCU HC Ryan Odom took Utah State to the big dance last year, I think he can put the dancing shoes on again, I like VCU, they should have just enough offense to get it done.

Yale -7.5 vs. Brown

Brown is 13-17 and now they are 40 minutes away from the big dance after a 6-17 start. 7 straight wins including @ Yale by 3 in OT and then the masterpiece against Princeton on Saturday winning by 9. Bears shot 55.9% yesterday, Yale held Cornell to 32.8% shooting yesterday. Yale ranks #1 on D, #2 on offense, they won 11 games in the Ivy during the regular season. Of those 11 wins, 8 were by double digits. I think we saw the best version of Brown on Saturday; I expect to see the best version of Yale today. I'll lay the points.

UAB -6 vs. Temple

4 vs. 11 in the American. This is March Madness. 1 meeting this year, the game under gambling review when UAB won 100-72 @ Temple on March 7th. Since then, Temple has won 5 straight including a 1-point upset over FAU on Saturday. This will be 5 games in 5 days for the Owls. Let's remember the Owls rank 11th on both ends of the floor, they started 1-11 in conference, and didn't have a Top 150 win in the regular season. UAB is mid-pack, they did beat Drake & Maryland in the non-conference plus have another 6 Top 100 wins in the conference. Yes, 6 is likely a bucket high but 3 games in 3 days vs. 5 in 5 is enough to justify the extra bucket.

It's Tournament Time! 23 Conference Tournament Games

Sat, 16 Mar 2024 08:41:23 +0000

My Conference Tournament Results:

1H Unders: 152-118-4, 56.3%, up 14.1792 units

Sides: 150-121-3, 55.3%, up 15.365 units

WHAT IF Results: (Not betting, just tracking for future reference)

Every Underdog ATS: 128-143-3, 47.2%, down 26.6352 units

Every Underdog ML: 87-187, 31.7%, down 1.74 units

1H UNDERS:

UMass Lowell/Vermont	63.5
Brown/Princeton	65.5
Wisconsin/Purdue	67
MIssissippi State/Auburn	67
Delaware State/Howard	65
Saint Joseph's/VCU	65.5
Cornell/Yale	71
Nebraska/Illinois	72.5
UAB/South Florida	68
St. Bonaventure/Duquesne	62.5
Texas A&M/Florida	71.5
Florida Atlantic/Temple	67
Iowa State/Houston	56.5
New Mexico/San Diego State	67
Marquette/UConn	67
Saint Peter's/Fairfield	60
Kent State/Akron	62
NC State/North Carolina	69
UTEP/Western Kentucky	67.5
Oregon/Colorado	67
Texas Southern/Grambling	59.5
Long Beach State/UC Davis	68
UT Arlington/Grand Canyon	68.5

Sides:

UMASS LOWELL	7.5
BROWN	9.5
WISCONSIN	6
MISSISSIPPI STATE	7.5
DELAWARE STATE	2.5
VCU	-2.5
YALE	-1.5
ILLINOIS	-4
SOUTH FLORIDA	-2
ST. BONAVENTURE	1.5
FLORIDA	-2.5
FAU	-13.5
HOUSTON	-4.5
SAN DIEGO STATE	-2
MARQUETTE	8.5
SAINT PETER'S	2.5
KENT STATE	5.5
NC STATE	9
WESTERN KENTUCKY	-3.5
OREGON	4
GRAMBLING	3
LONG BEACH STATE	1
UT ARLINGTON	5

It's Tournament Time! 36 Conference Tournament Games

Fri, 15 Mar 2024 08:41:23 +0000

My Conference Tournament Results:

1H Unders: 132-102-4, 56.4%, up 12.7872 units

Sides: 124-111-3, 52.8%, up 1.7284 units

WHAT IF Results: (Not betting, just tracking for future reference)

Every Underdog ATS: 112-123-3, 47.6%, down 21.1808 units

Every Underdog ML: 75-163, 31.5%, down 7.49 units

1H UNDERS:

Michigan State/Purdue	67.5
UTEP/Sam Houston	62.5
Mississippi State/Tennessee	67
East Carolina/South Florida	64
Wisconsin/Northwestern	64.5
Bethune-Cookman/Grambling	59.5
Middle Tennessee/Western Kentucky	69.5
Wichita State/UAB	68.5
South Carolina/Auburn	67
Kent State/Bowling Green	65.5
St. John's/UConn	69
Howard/Norfolk State	64
Ohio State/Illinois	73
Saint Peter's/Quinnipiac	64
Texas Tech/Houston	61.5
Pittsburgh/North Carolina	70
Texas A&M/Kentucky	76.5
North Texas/Florida Atlantic	64.5
Ohio/Akron	66
Oregon/Arizona	74
Delaware State/North Carolina Central	64.5
Providence/Marquette	64.5
Indiana/Nebraska	68.5
Marist/Fairfield	62.5
Long Beach State/UC Irvine	70
Seattle U/Grand Canyon	65
Temple/Charlotte	61.5
Baylor/Iowa State	63
San Diego State/Utah State	64.5
Florida/Alabama	82
Alabama A&M/Texas Southern	63
NC State/Virginia	56.5
Colorado/Washington State	65
Hawaii/UC Davis	63.5
UT Arlington/Tarleton State	68.5
Colorado State/New Mexico	71

ATS Sides:

MICHIGAN STATE	7.5
UTEP	3.5
MISSISSIPPI STATE	10
SOUTH FLORIDA	-7
WISCONSIN	-3.5
BETHUNE-COOKMAN	1.5
WESTERN KENTUCKY	-5.5
UAB	-4.5
SOUTH CAROLINA	7.5
BOWLING GREEN	2
ST. JOHN'S	9.5
HOWARD	1.5
ILLINOIS	-4.5
SAINT PETER'S	1.5
HOUSTON	-8.5
NORTH CAROLINA	-7.5
TEXAS A&M	5.5
NORTH TEXAS	4.5
AKRON	-2
OREGON	11
DELAWARE STATE	4.5
MARQUETTE	-5
INDIANA	3.5
FAIRFIELD	-3.5
LONG BEACH STATE	7
GRAND CANYON	-4.5
TEMPLE	7.5
IOWA STATE	-1
SAN DIEGO STATE	-3.5
ALABAMA	-3.5
TEXAS SOUTHERN	-4.5
NC STATE	2.5
WASHINGTON STATE	2.5
UC DAVIS	1.5
UT ARLINGTON	-1.5
COLORADO STATE	2.5

It's Tournament Time! 52 Conference Tournament Games

Thu, 14 Mar 2024 08:41:23 +0000

My Conference Tournament Results:

1H Unders: 103-80-3, 56.3%, up 9.5688 units

Sides: 95-89-2, 51.6%, down 2.6355 units

WHAT IF Results: (Not betting, just tracking for future reference)

Every Underdog ATS: 91-93-2, 49.4%, down 10.2719 units

Every Underdog ML: 57-129, 30.6%, down 11.56 units

Today's 1H Unders:

Kent State/Toledo	72
Saint Joseph's/Richmond	66
Xavier/UConn	71
Florida State/North Carolina	73
Minnesota/Michigan State	63.5
BYU/Texas Tech	72.5
Tulsa/East Carolina	65.5
Mississippi State/LSU	68.5
Bowling Green/Central Michigan	61
Maryland/Wisconsin	62
VCU/UMass	64.5
St. John's/Seton Hall	66.5
Wichita State/Memphis	73
Wake Forest/Pittsburgh	68
TCU/Houston	64.5
USC/Arizona	74.5
Fresno/Utah State	66.5
Jackson State/Texas Southern	65.5
Arkansas/South Carolina	67.5
Miami/Akron	63.5
St. Bonaventure/Loyola Chicago	65
San Diego State/UNLV	62
UCLA/Oregon	61
Morgan State/Howard	69.5
Ohio State/Iowa	73
Niagara/Marist	59
Western Michigan/Ohio	68.5
UTEP/Liberty	63
Kansas State/Iowa State	61.5
Providence/Creighton	66.5
NC State/Duke	70
Tulane/North Texas	66
Ole Miss/Texas A&M	66.5
Duquesne/Dayton	64
Delaware State/South Carolina State	63
Penn State/Indiana	70.5
Stanford/Washington State	66
COLORADO STATE/Nevada	65.5
Saint Peters/Rider	60
CS Northridge/Hawaii	65
Cal Baptist/Seattle U	59
New Mexico State/Western Kentucky	69.5
Temple/SMU	67
Villanova/Marquette	66
Cincinnati/Baylor	66
Bethune-Cookman/Southern	61
Georgia/Florida	73.5
Boston College/Virginia	58
UC Riverside/Long Beach State	71
New Mexico/Boise State	73
Stephen F. Austin/UT Arlington	66
Utah/Colorado	72.5

ATS Sides: (Sorry, no time for notes on these games - NEED SLEEP)

Kent State	5.5
Saint Joseph's	3.5
Xavier	15
North Carolina	-10.5
Michigan State	-6.5
BYU	-2
Tulsa	2.5
Mississippi State	-5
Bowling Green	-2.5
Wisconsin	-3.5
VCU	-1.5
St. John's	-4.5
Wichita State	8.5
Wake Forest	-2
Houston	-10
Arizona	-8.5
Utah State	-12
Texas Southern	-3
Arkansas	6.5
Akron	-8
Loyola Chicago	-2.5
San Diego State	-4
Oregon	-2.5
Morgan State	5.5
Ohio State	-2
Niagara	-1
Ohio	-8.5
Liberty	-3.5
Iowa State	-6.5
Providence	8.5
NC State	11.5
Tulane	6
Ole Miss	5
Dayton	-6.5
Delaware State	2
Indiana	2
Stanford	8.5
Colorado State	2.5
Saint Peter's	1.5
CS Northridge	5.5
Cal Baptist	6.5
Western Kentucky	-7
Temple	12
Villanova	4.5
Cincinnati	5.5
Southern	-2.5
Georgia	8
Boston College	4
UC Riverside	4
New Mexico	1.5
UT Arlington	-2
Colorado	-3.5

It's Tournament Time! 43 Conference Tournament Games

Wed, 13 Mar 2024 06:48:56 +0000

My Conference Tournament Results:

1H Unders: 83-58-2, 58.8%, up 14.1768 units

Sides: 70-72-1, 49.3%, down 8.363 units

WHAT IF Results: (Not betting, just tracking for future reference)

Every Underdog ATS: 73-69-1, 51.4%, down 2.6357 units

Every Underdog ML: 46-97, 32.1%, down 1.98 units

Today's 1H Unders:

Saint Joseph's/George Mason Under 64

Florida State/Virginia Tech Under 72

UCF/BYU Under 69

Rice/Wichita State Under 66

Fordham/VCU Under 62.5

Fresno State/Wyoming Under 65

Notre Dame/Wake Forest Under 64

Alabama A&M/Alcorn State 64.5

USC/Washington Under 73

UTSA/Temple Under 71

Oklahoma/TCU Under 68.5

Xavier/Butler Under 71.5

San Jose State/Colorado State Under 65.5

Nicholls/McNeese 63

La Salle/St. Bonaventure Under 65

Oregon State/UCLA Under 60

Coppin State/Norfolk State Under 59.5

Rutgers/Maryland Under 58

Canisius/Quinnipiac Under 68

Georgetown/Providence Under 68

Florida International/Sam Houston Under 68.5

Lehigh/Colgate Under 62

Air Force/New Mexico Under 68.5

Vanderbilt/Arkansas Under 70.5

Kansas State/Texas Under 67

NC State/Syracuse Under 72.5

Saint Louis/Duquesne Under 68

Maryland-Eastern Shore/North Carolina Central Under 61.5

Michigan/Penn State Under 71

Iona/Fairfield Under 68.5

DePaul/Villanova Under 64

Cal State Bakersfield/UC Riverside Under 62

Cal Baptist/Utah Valley Under 60

Middle Tennessee/Louisiana Tech Under 62

Stanford/California Under 70.5

Cincinnati/Kansas Under 64

Alabama State/Grambling Under 60

Missouri/Georgia Under 69.5

Boston College/Clemson Under 69.5

Montana State/Montana 68.5

Cal State Northridge/UC Santa Barbara Under 71

Abilene Christian/Stephen F. Austin Under 65

Arizona State/Utah Under 68

ATS Picks:

G1. UCF +5.5 vs. BYU (from podcast)

System play. It's tough to beat a team 3x in a season when favored by 6 or less.

G2. UTSA PK vs. Temple (from podcast)

System play. It's tough to beat a team 3x in a season when favored by 6 or less.

G3. North Carolina State +1.5 vs. Syracuse (from podcast)

System play. It's tough to beat a team 3x in a season when favored by 6 or less.

G4. Cal Baptist +4 vs. Utah Valley (from podcast, 3.5 vs. 4)

System play. It's tough to beat a team 3x in a season when favored by 6 or less.

G5. Utah -5.5 vs. Arizona State (from podcast)

System play. It's tough to beat a team 3x in a season when favored by 6 or less.

G6. Fairfield -4 vs. Iona (from podcast notes)

System play. It's tough to beat a team 3x in a season when favored by 6 or less.

G7. Washington +2.5 vs. USC (from podcast, 3 vs. 2.5)

@KotaCapperKyle pick.

G8. Villanova -23.5 vs. DePaul (from podcast)

@KotaCapperKyle pick.

G9. Georgia -3.5 vs. Missouri (from podcast)

@KotaCapperKyle pick.

G10. Cal State Northridge +2.5 vs. UC Santa Barbara (from podcast)

@KotaCapperKyle pick.

G11. George Mason PK vs. Saint Joseph's (from newsletter)

Like to gamble on injury speculation? Leading scorer Keyshawn Hall is questionable for George Mason with an ankle injury. Last played 2/27, dressed on Saturday but didn't play. Patriots beat Richmond by 18 without him. They have upside, Top 100 wins over Richmond, Dayton, St. Bonaventure, and Cornell. Hawks won the only meeting this year by 2 at home. Hawks rank 4th in offensive efficiency, 11th in defensive efficiency. I think George Mason wins a slugfest in the early tip.

G12. Virginia Tech -3.5 vs. Florida State

Should've played at 3, grabbing now before it hits 4. Hokies need to hit some 3's.

G13. Wichita State -3.5 vs. Rice

Grabbing now before it hits 4.

G14. Fordham +9 vs. VCU

Waiting for the number to increase. UPDATE: Increased to 9, play is in.

G15. Fresno State +7.5 vs. Wyoming

Number might improve but I like it enough at 7.5 to play.

G16. Wake Forest -8 vs. Notre Dame

Grabbing tonight vs. waiting for movement.

G17. Alcorn State -4 vs. Alabama A&M

Little will increase in the morning, grabbing now.

G18. TCU -2 vs. Oklahoma

Rock fight!

G19. Xavier -2 vs. Butler

Miller vs. Matta

G20. San Jose State +15 vs. Colorado State

Call off the dogs early.

G21. Nicholls State +16.5 vs. McNeese

Just a little bit much for me.

G22. Oregon State +6.5 vs. UCLA

UCLA won the first 2, I'm make the Bruins separate in a low scoring game.

G23. Coppin State +13 vs. Norfolk State

DD dogs have been killing me, but I still think 13 is a bit much.

G24. Maryland -3.5 vs. Rutgers

Love the under, forcing myself to play Maryland.

G25. Georgetown +9.5 vs. Providence

3rd time will be the charm for Ed Cooley.

G26. Sam Houston -7.5 vs. FIU

FIU used up the magic last night.

G27. Lehigh +8.5 vs. Colgate

Lehigh won't go away; they remind me of Stony Brook from last night.

G28. New Mexico -14.5 vs. Air Force

Lobos need style points, great revenge spot.

G29. Arkansas -6 vs. Vandy

Revenge spot for the Razorbacks. Tournament game, I always back Coach Muss.

G30. Kansas State +4.5 vs. Texas

Texas has talent but K State will be a tough out.

G31. Saint Louis +8.5 vs. Duquesne

Tough year for Saint Louis but this number is a bit much.

G32. Michigan +7 vs. Penn State

I had no interest in playing Michigan, number should be 4. Value on Michigan.

G33. UC Riverside -2 vs. CSU Bakersfield

Riverside has won 7 of 9, I'll take the hot team.

G34. Louisiana Tech -9 vs. Middle Tennessee

Ken Pom value play, his line is 13.

G35. Stanford -2 vs. Cal

Bet this one earlier this year, evenly matched. Banking on Stanford to hit a few 3's.

G36. Canisius +7 vs. Quinnipiac

7 in the MAAC, sold. Give me the points. Anyone still in it, can win it.

G37. UMES +9.5 vs. North Carolina Central

Always pulling for the underdog.

G38. Cincinnati -2.5 vs. Kansas

Kansas needs rest to get healthy, Cincinnati needs to win. NUMBERS still say Kansas, going against the numbers.

G39. Grambling -2 vs. Alabama State

Last game of the season, Alabama State beat Grambling by 3 in 2OT. Turn the tables today.

G40. Boston College +7 vs. Clemson

Clemson plays much better D than Miami but I'm hoping BC keeps clicking.

G41. Montana State +6 vs. Montana

SYSTEM PLAY ADD: It's tough to beat a team 3x when favored by 6 or less.

G42. Abilene Christian +3 vs. Stephen F Austin

Abilene is playing too good to pass up getting points.

KotaCapperKyle's Best Bet for Wednesday (Big East)

Wed, 13 Mar 2024 03:45:12 +0000

YTD Best Bet: 4-2

Best Bet: Villanova -23.5 vs. DePaul

I know what you are thinking: Kyle that spread is a ton of points, there is no way this should be on your card let alone your best bet of the day. That may be true, but here’s a fact for you all that you should really be aware of: DePaul stinks. They are one of the worst basketball teams if not the worst that I have seen this season. They have lost, get this, 19 straight games, and have covered in only seven of them. To really lock in the point that DePaul stinks, of those 19 losses, 11 of them have been by 25 or more points. Okay, I am off my soapbox about how bad DePaul is, let’s talk Villanova. They have a top 20 defense this season that is allowing only 65.6 ppg and have allowed their opponents to shoot only 41.1% from the field. Their forward Eric Dixon is having a great season averaging 16.3 ppg. Betting wise the Wildcats have covered in seven of their last ten games, and they also are going to have redemption on the mind, as they have lost their last two. I am going to be honest, I would not be surprised if this final is a 30 point game because Villanova has beaten DePaul this year by 36 and 25 this year. This game is going to be an absolute rout.

It's Tournament Time! 23 Conference Tournament Games (Atlantic 10, Big 12, ACC, America East, MAAC, Southland, CAA, Horizon, Northeast, Big Sky, West Coast, Conference USA, Summit)

Tue, 12 Mar 2024 04:45:03 +0000

My Conference Tournament Results:

1H Unders: 71-47-2, 60.2%, up 14.7416 units

Sides: 61-58-1, 51.2%, down 2.5449 units

WHAT IF Results: (Not betting, just tracking for future reference)

Every Underdog ATS: 58-61-1, 48.7%, down 8.2722 units

Every Underdog ML: 38-82, 31.7%, up 0.80 units

Today's 1H Unders:

Davidson/Fordham Under 62.5

Oklahoma State/UCF Under 64

George Washington/La Salle Under 69.5

Georgia Tech/Notre Dame Under 61.5

West Virginia/Cincinnati Under 68

Saint Louis/Rhode Island Under 73.5

Louisville/NC State Under 70.5

New Hampshire/Vermont Under 64.5

Canisius/Mount St. Mary's Under 64.5

Bryant/UMass Lowell Under 75.5

Lamar/McNeese Under 65.5

Stony Brook/Charleston Under 72.5

Milwaukee/Oakland Under 72

Wagner/Merrimack Under 54.5

Miami/Boston College Under 69.5

Manhattan/Iona Under 64.5

Sacramento State/Montana State Under 62.5

Gonzaga/Saint Mary's Under 65

Nicholls/Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Under 63.5

Florida International/Jacksonville State Under 66

Denver/South Dakota State Under 75.5

Siena/Niagara Under 61.5

Idaho State/Montana Under 65.5

ATS Picks:

G1. Miami -1.5 vs. Boston College (from the podcast)

Boston College won the first meeting at home by 8, won the second meeting on the road by 10. I'm not wavering from the strategy, it's tough be beat a team 3x in a season when favored by 6 or less.

G2. Georgia Tech +1.5 vs. Notre Dame (from the podcast)

Notre Dame won the first meeting @ Georgia Tech by 7 in OT, Fighting Irish won the second meeting by 3 at home. You know the drill, it's tough be beat a team 3x in a season when favored by 6 or less.

G3. George Washington +2 vs. La Salle (from the podcast)

La Salle won the first meeting @ George Washington by 10, Explorers won the second meeting by 6 at home. Here we go again, it's tough be beat a team 3x in a season when favored by 6 or less.

G4. Bryant +4.5 @ UMass Lowell (from the podcast)

True road game. UMass Lowell won the first meeting by 9 @ Bryant, River Hawks won the second meeting at home by 22. Yet another, it's tough be beat a team 3x in a season when favored by 6 or less.

G5. Fordham +4.5 vs. Davidson (from the podcast)

Davidson won the first meeting by 10 on the road, Wildcats won the second meeting by 15 at home. I'm all in on the strategy, it's tough be beat a team 3x in a season when favored by 6 or less.

G6. FIU +4 vs. Jacksonville State (from the podcast)

Jacksonville State won the first meeting by 7 at home, Gamecocks won the second meeting @ FIU by 2. Here we go again. it's tough be beat a team 3x in a season when favored by 6 or less.

G7. Milwaukee +5 vs. Oakland (from the podcast)

Oakland won the first meeting by 5 at home, Oakland won the second meeting in 2OT @ Milwaukee by 4. I can't help myself, it's tough be beat a team 3x in a season when favored by 6 or less.

G8. Idaho State +5 vs. Montana (from the podcast)

Montana won the first meeting by 8 on the road, Montana won the second meeting by 14 at home. Make or break day for the strategy, say it with me one more time...... it's tough be beat a team 3x in a season when favored by 6 or less.

G9. West Virginia +10.5 vs. Cincinnati (from the podcast)

The Bearcats crushed the Mountaineers in the final game of the regular season 92-56. West Viriginia might be 9-22 but they played tough much of the year. They showed some pride. They actually beat Cincy by 4 at home. They also beat Texas & Kansas at home. On the road, winless this season. BUT in February, they lost by only 7 @ Iowa State, they took Kansas State to OT. 10.5 is a bit much for me, I think that Mountaineers keep this within foul game.

G10. Canisius +4.5 vs. Mount St. Mary's

Teams split during the season, Mount won by 5 at home, Canisius won by 5 at home. Couple tight games, now a neutral floor. Golden Griffins won 5 of 8 down the stretch including a half court winner last out against Manhattan. Mountaineers lost 5 of 7 down the stretch against tough competition. When in doubt, grab the points. Give me the 4.5.

G11. Charleston -7 vs. Stony Brook

4^th game in 4 days for Stony Brook. Who's the last team in the conference you want to play in that situation? I would think it's the team that plays the fastest tempo in the conference, Charleston. Not only is Charleston is the fastest temp, they are also the best team in the conference. 1 meeting during the year, Charleston won @ Stony Brook by 6. Seawolves have had a great run, beating Northeastern, winning in 2OT against Drexel, and then hanging on against Hofstra but the party is over tonight. I expect the Cougars to separate and win by double digits.

G12. Oklahoma State +4.5 vs. UCF

Cowboys have lost 5 straight including by 6 at home against UCF. That was the only meeting of the year between the two teams. I considered that a tough spot of Oklahoma State since they were coming off an OT loss to rival Oklahoma. I think today is a much better spot, UCF beat TCU on the road to end the regular season. They have the better resume with 5 Top 50 wins vs. 2 for Oklahoma State but I can't lay 4.5 today with the 14th ranked offense in the Big 12.

G13. Rhode Island +2.5 vs. Saint Louis

Saint Louis won the lone meeting @ Rhode Island 94-91 on March 2nd. Rhode Island ended a 7-game losing streak on Saturday winning at Fordham by 8. St. Louis won @ St. Bonaventure by 8 on Saturday. Best unit on the floor, St. Louis offense. Worst unit on the floor, St. Louis defense. I have no idea what direction to go with this game. When forced to play a side and in doubt, I grab points.

G14. North Carolina State -8.5 vs. Louisville

I'm guessing this number will finish higher, favorites have been steaming up in conference tournament play. Woflpack have lost 4 straight games, 15-7 at one point, now 17-14. Beat Louisville on the road by 6 in the lone meeting. Cardinals are 8-23, 3-17 in the ACC. I normally grab points, but I have a feeling NC State will take some end of season frustration out on the Cards today.

G15. Vermont -13.5 vs. New Hampshire

True home game. Vermont won both meetings this year winning by 16 at home, 4 on the road. Vermont survived a major scare from Albany. That should help them get refocused to finish the job and get back to the Big Dance. I don't see New Hampshire finding enough offense to hang around in this one. I have the Catamounts running it up and leaving no doubt.

G16. Lamar +12.5 vs. McNeese

McNeese won both meetings this year winning by 19 at home, by 2 on the road. McNeese is really good, 28-3, 17-1 in conference, #1 on both ends of the floor. Lamar won last night by 14 over New Orleans, they finished 12-6 in conference, they really seemed to improve down the stretch, they rank 2nd on O, 3rd on D. I think they keep it interesting tonight. Likely can wait on this number, will probably finish around 14.

G17. Merrimack -6.5 vs. Wagner

True home game. Merrimack deserved to go dancing last year, they can get the dancing shoes ready for next week. Lost to Wagner by 6 at home, beat Wagner on the road by 16 during the regular season. Wagner finished 7-9 in conference, Cinderella story winning back-to-back road games so far against Sacred Heart & Central Connecticut, but the story ends tonight. Merrimack will leave no doubt.

G18. Iona -8 vs. Manhattan

Can't believe that I'm going to lay 8 with Iona after they lost by 17 @ Manhattan last week after beating them by 10 earlier in the season. I call that bottom for Iona, only one direction to go. Give Manhattan some credit, 7-22 on the year but they went 2-2 in the final four games with an OT loss to Canisus. They didn't give up but the pressure of Iona will create challenges today. I'll lay the points.

G19. Sacramento State +5 vs. Montana State

Big Sky has been crazy. Montana State was lights out in the 2H last night against Weber State. Sacramento State has an extra day's rest, but this is Game 3 in 4 days for them. Teams split during the year, Sacramento State won at Montana State by 3, Montana State won at Sacramento State by 8. Probably can wait on this line, might increase to 6 or more. I just like how Sacramento State has been playing over the last 7. I'll ride the hot team getting points.

G20. Saint Mary's +2 vs. Gonzaga

This should be fun. Teams split during the season, both teams are playing great basketball. This is ping-pong, Saint Mary's won, Gonzaga won, and now it's Saint Mary's turn again. Give me the Gaels and the 2.

G21. Texas A&M Corpus Christi -4 vs. Nicholls State

Corpus won the first meeting by 10 at home, Nicholls State returned the favor winning by 4 at home. Nicholls coasted to the 21-point win over Commerce last night, 13-5 in conference, solid club ranked 4th on offense. Islanders have won 7 straight, all 7 by double digits including a road win @ Lamar. This team has played McNeese State tough twice this year losing by 1 and 7. They rank 3rd on offense, 2nd on defense.

G22. Denver +8.5 vs. South Dakota State

What happened to the offense last night in Sioux Falls? South Dakota State beat St. Thomas 59-49 with a total of 141.5, Denver beat Omaha 66-63 with a total of 154. Denver won the first meeting this year 99-80 over the Jackrabbits, South Dakota State crushed the Pioneers 97-70 in the return trip to Brookings. I expect more points tonight, best scorer plays for Denver, I think they keep it interesting in a semi-road game.

G23. Niagara -10.5 vs. Siena

MAACDaddyHoops likes Niagara to win this tournament. If he's that high on the Purple Eagles, I'm willing to lay 10.5 against a 4-27 team even though one of those 4 wins came against Niagara. I'll lay the points.

It's Tournament Time! 14 Conference Tournament Games (CAA, Southland, Horizon, Sun Belt, SoCon, Summit, Big Sky, West Coast)

Mon, 11 Mar 2024 10:45:03 +0000

Blog Partner: https://scheels.sjv.io/g1BanO (Caitlin Clark T-Shirts Available Now)

My Conference Tournament Results:

1H Unders: 61-43-2, 58.6%, up 10.0456 units

Sides: 52-53-1, 49.5%, down 5.7268 units

WHAT IF Results: (Not betting, just tracking for future reference)

Every Underdog ATS: 51-54-1, 48.6%, down 7.6359 units

Every Underdog ML: 34-72, 32.0%, up 1.93 units

Today's 1H Unders:

Towson/Charleston Under 65

New Orleans/Lamar Under 74

Cleveland State/Oakland Under 68.5

Arkansas State/James Madison Under 72.5

East Tennessee State/Samford Under 70.5

St. Thomas/South Dakota State Under 65.5

Montana State/Weber State Under 67.5

Stony Brook/Hofstra Under 66

Texas A&M-Commerce/Nicholls Under 64

Santa Clara/Saint Mary's Under 63.5

Milwaukee/Northern Kentucky Under 71

Denver/Omaha Under 73

Portland State/Montana Under 68.5

San Francisco/Gonzaga Under 70.5

ATS Picks:

G1. St. Thomas +1.5 vs. South Dakota State (from the podcast)

I absolutely love South Dakota State tonight, I bet this team all year, conference champ, #2 on offense, #3 on defense, beat Towson on a neutral floor, won @ Wichita State, have won 6 straight games, have the extra days rest, will have 90% of the fans tonight in Sioux Falls. Only one problem......they beat St. Thomas on the road by 1, they beat St. Thomas by 5 at home. As you've heard by now, it's tough be beat a team 3x in a season when favored by 6 or less.

G2. Stony Brook +5.5 vs. Hofstra (from the podcast)

Hofstra pounded Delaware yesterday by 15, Stony Brook won a game to remember upsetting Drexel in 2OT 91-88. This will be the 3^rd game in 3 days for Stony Brook, legs might be a concern after the 2OT win. Hofstra won the first meeting by 6 on the road, won the second meeting by 1 at home. I'm going to keep saying it, it's tough be beat a team 3x in a season when favored by 6 or less.

G3. Denver +1.5 vs. Omaha (from the podcast)

6 & 7 seeds meet in the semis. Both teams used up some luck in the quarterfinals? Last night, Omaha trailed North Dakota by 10 with 4 to go, 9 with under 3 to go and scored in the closing seconds to win it. Saturday night, Denver rallied from 12 down to beat UMKC shooting only 39.3% from the field. Unfortunately, the 2 teams split during the year, both winning on the road. Pioneers won at Omaha by 15, Mavericks won at Denver by 19. Denver is a bit better on offense, Omaha a bit better on defense. Leading scorer in the league was Tommy Bruner, he averaged 24.3 PPG this year, he plays for Denver. Never a bad thing to have the best player on the floor. Give me the Pioneers.

G4. Weber State -6 vs. Montana State (from the podcast)

Welcome to the conference of chaos! #10 Sacramento State upset #1 Eastern Washington; #8 Idaho State upset #2 Northern Colorado last night. AND now, I'm backing a favorite. These two played in the last game of the regular season, Montana State won that game 76-64. Weber State won the first meeting by 22. Bobcats finished 9-9 in the Big Sky, 2^nd ranked D. Wildcats finished 11-7, have the #1 D, #4 on offense. Weber State has a high upside, they beat #22 Saint Mary's and #89 Yale in the non-conference. Add in the fact that Dillon Jones has named conference MVP, they also have the best player on the floor. That's enough for me to roll the dice and lay points in the crazy Big Sky.

G5. Charleston -4 vs. Towson (from the podcast)

Pat Kelsey can flat out coach. Charleston crushed Monmouth on Sunday by 24. Cougars of Charleston have won 10 straight, 5 straight by double digits including a 16-point win @ Towson. Charleston will push the pace, #1 in the CAA, #1 offense in the CAA, 15-3 in conference. But Towson is always a challenge, they upset Charleston by 4 in the first meeting of the year. This will be the 3^rd game in 3 days for Towson, beat William & Mary by 11 on Saturday, UNC Wilmington by 10 on Sunday. Tigers they have the #1 D in CAA. I'm also a little concerned with the extra motivation of losing to Charleston last year in the semis. But when it comes to talent, Charleston had a 1^st team, 2^nd team, and 3^rd team All-Conference selection. Towson had a 3^rd team All-Conference selection. Charleston also had the coach of the year in Pat Kelsey, I'll lay the 4 hoping the 3 games in 3 days catches up to the Tigers.

G6. Milwaukee +1 vs. Northern Kentucky (from the podcast)

I don't like any of the other numbers on the board so I'm forcing myself to bet this game and I'm flopping like a fish. Teams split during the season, Northern Kentucky won the first meeting by 18, Milwaukee won the 2^nd meeting by 1. Darrin Horn has done a tremendous job at Northern Kentucky, won the conference tournament last year as a 4 seed, outlasted Wright State 99-97 in OT in the quarterfinals, and the Norse have the #2 D in the Horizon. Milwaukee is on the rise, winning 7 of 8, mid-pack on both ends of floor. Numbers favor Northern Kentucky, they have the defensive player of the year, but BJ Freeman has taken his game to another level. He scored 38 against Purdue Fort Wayne and now 30 & 32 in the first 2 rounds of the tournament. I'm not going to bet against him tonight, give me the Panthers.

G7. San Francisco +9 vs. Gonzaga

Only one way for the Dons to make the big dance, win the conference tournament. This is a dangerous team, beat Minnesota by 18, lost by only 5 @ Boise State, lost to Utah State by 1, lost at Gonzaga by 5, lost at St. Mary's by 4. Gonzaga did crush them by 18 a couple weeks back but that will likely just add to the effort tonight. Dons are the 3rd best team on both ends of the floor, they can create some challenges. Zags are playing great basketball, but I still think this one stays within foul game range. I'll grab the points.

G8. James Madison -6.5 vs. Arkansas State

James Madison won the lone meeting of the season by 4 @ Arkansas State. Red Wolves are hot, winning 8 of 9, fresh off the buzzer beating win over Appalachian State last night. Once 8-13, now 1 win away from the big dance. James Madison has been the class of the conference all season at 30-3. I was hoping for Appalachian State in this spot since they beat JMU twice during the season, but I'll just settle for laying the points tonight with the team that has the longest active winning streak in college basketball.

G9. Santa Clara +9.5 vs. Saint Mary's

Gaels swept the season series winning by 24 @ Santa Clara, winnings by 5 at home. Gaels lost the final game of the season to Gonzaga; hopefully they get caught looking ahead tonight. Santa Clara has wins over Oregon, Washington State, San Francisco, and Gonzaga. Solid club ranking 4th on both ends of the year, looked great on Saturday beating San Diego by 25, and have a good veteran coach in Herb Sendek. Saint Mary's is the better team, I'm just hoping to keep it in single digits tonight.

G10. Cleveland State +6.5 vs. Oakland

Grabbing points in the Horizon seems to be a good idea since #2, #3, #4 have already been sent packing. #1 Oakland lost at Cleveland State back in December by 8, beat Cleveland State by 12 at home in February. Grizzlies have won 6 of 7, solid 10-point over Purdue Fort Wayne in the quarterfinals. #3 on offense, #4 on defense. Cleveland State won @ Bradley in the non-conference, had an impressive 12-point win @ Youngstown State in the quarters. Dangerous team. 6.5 seems a bit much, I'll grab the points.

G11. East Tennessee State +10.5 vs. Samford

I fully expect to be backing Samford in the Second Round of the NCAA Tournament next week, they will win this game. Bulldogs are 28-5, beat Furman by 7 yesterday, have the #1 offense, #2 defense in the SoCon. They beat ETSU by 3 on the road, by 16 at home. Buccaneers enter fresh off the big upset over Chattanooga in OT, this will be 4 games in 4 days, never easy on the legs. Tank could be on empty, blowout potential. With all that said, 10.5 is a BIG number. I'll take the points.

G12. Portland State +7.5 vs. Montana

Teams split during the season, Portland State won by 26 at home, Montana won by 9 at home. Grizzlies have the 2nd best offense, Portland State has the 3rd best D. I think the Vikings can keep this one interesting, give me the points.

G13. Texas A&M-Commerce +6.5 vs. Nicholls State

6.5 isn't 6 but Nicholls State won both meetings during the season, won in 2OT on the road by 3, won by 15 at home. It's tough to beat a team 3x in the season even at 6.5. Give me the points.

G14. Lamar -9.5 vs. New Orleans

Lamar beat New Orleans both times in the regular season winning by 25 at home, winning by 22 on the road. Statement wins. Cardinals are solid on both ends of the floor, 2nd on O, 3rd on D. New Orleans is 10-22, big upset win over SE Louisiana yesterday but the metrics are bad for a reason. I'm laying the points.

It's Tournament Time! 19 Conference Tournament Games (CAA, Big South, Patriot, Missouri Valley, ASUN, SoCon, Southland, Sun Belt, Summit, Big Sky)

Sun, 10 Mar 2024 12:45:03 +0000

Blog Partner: https://scheels.sjv.io/g1BanO (Caitlin Clark T-Shirts Available Now)

My Conference Tournament Results:

1H Unders: 51-35-1, 59.3%, up 9.3496 units

Sides: 44-42-1, 51.2%, down 1.9996 units

WHAT IF Results: (Not betting, just tracking for future reference)

Every Underdog ATS: 38-48-1, 44.2%, down 13.4542 units

Every Underdog ML: 24-63, 27.6%, down 12.02 units

Today's 1H Unders:

Monmouth/Charleston Under 73

Longwood/UNC Asheville Under 65.5

Bucknell/Colgate Under 61.5

Drake/Indiana State Under 70.5

Austin Peay/Stetson Under 67.5

Towson/UNC Wilmington Under 60.5

Lehigh/Boston U Under 65

Furman/Samford Under 72

Stony Brook/Drexel Under 65.5

New Orleans/SE Louisiana Under 68.5

Arkansas State/Appalachian State Under 68.5

East Tennessee State/Chattanooga Under 65.5

North Dakota State/St. Thomas Under 63

Sacramento State/Eastern Washington Under 66.5

Delaware/Hofstra Under 63.5

Texas A&M-Commerce/Northwestern State Under 63.5

Texas State/James Madison Under 66.5

Omaha/North Dakota Under 68.5

Idaho State/Northern Colorado Under 66.5

ATS Picks:

G1. Drake +1.5 vs. Indiana State (from the podcast)

Top 2 teams meet in the Valley, I was hoping for some chaos on Saturday but it didn't happen. Drake won by 11 at home this year, Indiana State won by 8 at home. Drake has won 9 of 10. Indiana State has won 6 straight. Sycamores are #1 on both ends of the floor, Bulldogs rank 2^nd on O, 3^rd on D. 15 Top 200 wins for Indiana State, 18 Top 200 wins for Drake. Best win of the year: Drake crushing Nevada by 19 on neutral floor. First Arch Madness title game appearance since 2014 for the Sycamores, this is the 4^th straight year for the Bulldogs in the title game.....they won it last year by 26 over Bradley. Experience edge to Drake. I would love to see both teams in the Big Dance, give me the Bulldogs in this one.

G2. UNC Asheville -3 vs. Longwood (from the podcast)

Crazy day in the Big South yesterday, Longwood stormed back to beat the top seed and host school High Point by 1 in OT. UNC Ashville battled back and then made it look easy in OT winning by 11 over Gardner Webb. 2 teams played a couple good ones during the year, Asheville won by 4 at home, Longwood won by 5 at home. Longwood was 6-10 in conference during the season, Asheville was 12-4. Asheville has one of my favorite players in Drew Pember, triple double yesterday. I'm expecting for the glass slipper to fall off today for the Lancers, give me UNC Asheville.

G3. Lehigh -1 @ Boston U (from the podcast)

#6 is favored on the road at #2. Boston U won both meetings during the regular season beating Lehigh by 1 at home, then won by 2 in OT on the road. I heard a rumor that it's tough to beat a team 3x in a season when favored by 6 or less.

G4. East Tennessee State +7.5 vs. Chattanooga (from the podcast)

No line was out last night, based on Ken Pom having this game at 3 I was expecting this to qualify for my tough to beat a team 3x in a season when favored by 6 or less. It no longer qualifies for that but I'm still playing it with 4.5 points on value vs. Pom.

G5. Idaho State +3.5 vs. Northern Colorado (from the podcast)

Northern Colorado won the first meeting at home by 5 in 2OT. Bears beat the Bengals again in the second meeting by 2. I keep hearing this voice telling me that it's tough to beat a team 3x in a season when favored by 6 or less.

G6. Appalachian State -4.5 vs. Arkansas State

Mountaineers survived in OT yesterday against Georgia Southern to win for the 8th straight time. Mountaineers beat Arkansas State by 23 in the lone meeting, Mountaineers swept James Madison this year, they beat Auburn, they beat UNC Wilmington by 30. This is a good basketball team. Arkansas State was won 7 of 8 including a dominating 27-point win yesterday over Louisiana. Today, I expect Appalachian State to bring it and cover.

G7. Samford -1.5 vs. Furman

Teams split during the season, Furman won by 10 at home, Samford won by 2 at home. Ken Pom has this at 5. Furman needed OT to beat Western Carolina yesterday, they are mid-pack on both ends of the floor. Samford went 15-3 in the SoCon, rank #1 on O, #2 on D. I regret not putting this on my podcast card. I really, really, really like Samford today.

G8. UNC Wilmington -2.5 vs. Towson

Last time Wilmington played, tempers were running hot in the 75-64 win over Towson to end the season. This will be an intense game after that finish. Towson pulled away in the 2H to beat William & Mary by 11 yesterday. Towson beat Wilmington in the first meeting by 3 and they have the #1 D in the CAA. UNC Wilmington can score, they rank 2nd on O, they beat Kentucky this year, they have upside so give me the Seahawks.

G9. Delaware +4.5 vs. Hofstra

Hofstra won the only meeting this year by 5 at home. Pride finished 8-2 down the stretch losing only to Drexel & Charleston. Rank #2 on D, #4 on offense. Delaware had no issue with Hampton yesterday winning by 30. The Blue Hens metrics aren't as favorable ranking 8th on O, 4th on D. I should probably back Hofstra, but they burned me a few times this year with disappointing efforts so I'm going to grab the points and hope for one of those off nights.

G10. Monmouth +9.5 vs. Charleston

I love Pat Kelsey & the Cougars. 9 straight wins, 4 straight by double digits. This is a numbers play for me. Ken Pom has at 6. Line is 9.5, might hit 10. Value on the Monmouth side. I'll take the points.

G11. North Dakota -2 vs. Nebraska Omaha

Teams split during the season, UNO won by 18 at home, UND won by 21 at home. Fighting Hawks started 0-3 in the Summit, finished 10-6 with good metrics including on the offensive glass. Mavericks lost 5 of 7 to end the year with the only wins against the teams that played in the 8/9 game. Anything can happen but the Fighting Hawks should have enough talent to win this one given recent performance trends.

G12. Stetson -3.5 vs. Austin Peay

True home game. I was ready to pick Austin Peay, I want to pick Austin Peay. I got cold feet. If 10 people gave me a side on this game, all 10 picked Austin Peay. Yes, Stetson struggled to beat Jacksonville, but Austin Peay also needed OT to beat North Florida. Stetson won the first meeting by 1 at home. Austin Peay has won 9 of 10. I will probably be kicking myself later today, but I'll lay the points with the Hatters.

G13. Texas State +11 vs. James Madison

Cashing a ticket with a double-digit dog has been tough so far in conference tournament action. I'll try again today. JMU won the first meeting by 17 at home. Dukes are 29-3 including the season opening win @ Michigan State. Texas State has won 6 straight. 4th game for them vs. 2nd game for James Madison. Might be a factor late but I expect this one to stay in single digits.

G14. North Dakota State +5.5 vs. St. Thomas

Computer was to play St. Thomas. Can't do it. North Dakota State head coach Dave Richman is called "Sioux Falls" Dave. North Dakota State has advanced to the title game 5 straight years, they always seem to peak at this time. I'm not passing up Sioux Falls Dave getting 5.5.

G15. Northwestern State +1.5 vs. Texas A&M-Commerce

Revenge spot to start the tournament. Last game of the regular season: Texas A&M Commerce beat Northwestern State at home 83-80 in 3OT. That's all I need to see. Give me the Demons today.

G16. New Orleans +6.5 vs. Southeastern Louisiana

Just missed my 6-point cut to be a system play but I'm still playing it. SE Louisiana won the first meeting by 5 on the road, won the second meeting by 10 at home. 3rd time, I'll grab the points.

G17. Bucknell +10.5 @ Colgate

True road game. Colgate won both meetings during the year winnings @ Bucknell by 11, winning at home by 12. Bucknell won @ American on Thursday by 23. Last 7 wins for the Bison have all been by double digits. They have some potential; this one might be in doubt at the Under 8. I'm grabbing the points.

G18. Eastern Washington -11.5 vs. Sacramento State

Eastern Washington last played @ Sacramento State winning by 3. I was dumb enough to lay points with the Eagles in that one and lost. I get payback today on a neutral floor.

G19. Drexel -3.5 vs. Stony Brook

Drexel won the lone meeting during the year by 4 at home. Dragons are solid, top 3 on both ends of the floor. Stony Brook beat me yesterday by crushing Northeastern for the third time this season. Seawolves rank 5th on both ends of the floor. Drexel beat Villanova this year, they have upside, dangerous out in the CAA so I'll lay the points.

KotaCapperKyle's Best Bet for Saturday

Sat, 09 Mar 2024 16:59:07 +0000

Blog Partner: https://scheels.sjv.io/g1BanO (Caitlin Clark Never A Long Shot and You Break It, You Own It T-Shirts Available Now)

YTD Best Bet: 3-2

Best Bet: Indiana State -7.5 vs. Northern Iowa

After a downward spiral during the middle of the season, the Sycamores have been absolutely rolling as of late. They have won seven out of their last nine games and have covered in six of their last nine. They were ranked in the top 25 at one point this year, and they have done this because of their offense. Indiana State is one of the top offenses in the country this year scoring a very impressive 84.1 ppg. They have four starters averaging over 12.0 ppg, and that balanced scoring attack has made it near impossible for opponents to guard them. The one person to watch out for is Indiana State's big man Robbie Avila. He is currently leading the team with 17.4 ppg and also hauling down 6.8 rpg. Northern Iowa's big man, Jacob Hutson has allowed the big men he has guarded against to score 14 or more points in the last three games. I think Avila is going to be a problem against Hutson and is going to make the difference in this matchup. Meanwhile, Northern Iowa is not as good defensively as people may believe. They are allowing 71 ppg, while also allowing their opponents to shoot 44.6% from the field (205th in CBB). A lot of things are pointing in Indiana State's way, but there is one thing that has me sold on the Sycamores. 64% of the public is betting on Northern Iowa, but the line has not shifted. If that much of the public is on Northern Iowa, the line should shift in their favor. To me, that is showing that smart money is on Indiana State, and I think they beat UNI handily.

It's Tournament Time! 29 Conference Tournament Games (CAA, NEC, SoCon, Big South, Sun Belt, America East, Missouri Valley, Summit, Big Sky, OVC, West Coast)

Sat, 09 Mar 2024 08:15:24 +0000

Blog Partner: https://scheels.sjv.io/g1BanO (Caitlin Clark T-Shirts Available Now)

My Conference Tournament Results:

1H Unders: 34-23-1, 59.6%, up 6.5664 units

Sides: 28-29-1, 49.1%, down 3.5452 units

WHAT IF Results: (Not betting, just tracking for future reference)

Every Underdog ATS: 28-29-1, 49.1%, down 3.5452 units

Every Underdog ML: 18-40, 31.0%, down 2.42 units

Today's 1H Unders:

Campbell/Monmouth Under 68.5

Le Moyne/Merrimack Under 62.5

Mercer/Samford Under 73.5

Longwood/High Point Under 72.5

Georgia Southern/Appalachian State Under 69.5

Wagner/Central Connecticut Under 58.5

Maine/Bryant Under 67

Gardner-Webb/UNC Asheville Under 70.5

William & Mary/Towson Under 60.5

East Tennessee State/UNC Greensboro Under 62.5

UAlbany/Vermont Under 68.5

Binghamton/New Hampshire Under 69

UMBC/UMass Lowell Under 76.5

Louisiana/Arkansas State Under 71.5

Northern Iowa/Indiana State Under 69.5

Northeastern/Stony Brook Under 65

Bradley/Drake Under 64

Texas State/Troy Under 65.5

Wofford/Chattanooga Under 67.5

Oral Roberts/South Dakota State Under 70.5

Sacramento State/Idaho Under 60.5

Morehead State/Little Rock Under 65

Hampton/Delaware Under 65.5

Marshall/James Madison Under 72.5

Furman/Western Carolina Under 69.5

Denver/Kansas City Under 71

San Diego/Santa Clara Under 70.5

Idaho State/Northern Arizona Under 65.5

Portland/San Francisco Under 68

ATS Picks:

G1. Wagner +6 @ Central Connecticut (from the podcast)

Blue Devils of Central Connecticut won the first 2 meetings of the season winning by 1 in OT at home, winning by 1 on the road. 2 heartbreaking losses for the Seahawks, I'm hoping for revenge today. I've heard it before, it's tough to beat a team 3x in a season when favored by 6 or less.

G2. Denver +4.5 vs. UMKC (from the podcast)

Roos of UMKC have won 6 in a row and they won both meetings this year against Denver. Roos won by 14 at home, then won by 15 @ the Pioneers last week. None the less, it's tough to beat a team 3x in a season when favored by 6 or less.

G3. Northeastern +2.5 vs. Stony Brook (from the podcast)

The Seawolves of Stony Brook won the first 2 meetings of the season, winning by 9 @ Northeastern and by 4 at home over the Huskies. Let's say it again, it's tough to beat a team 3x in a season when favored by 6 or less.

G4. Wofford +4 @ Chattanooga (from the podcast)

How committed am I to this strategy? I love the guards at Chattanooga, I've bet on them all year and now when it matters most I'm jumping ship. Mocs won both meetings in the regular season winning @ Wofford by 14, beating the Terriers by 16 at home just a couple weeks ago. As much as I want to bet them, it's tough to beat a team 3x in a season when favored by 6 or less.

G5. Arkansas State -1.5 vs. Louisiana (from the podcast)

We finally have a favorite that has lost both games in the regular season. Ragin Cajuns won the first meeting by 7 on the road, won the second meeting by 6 at home. It's tough to beat a team 3x in a season when favored by 6 or less.....in this case the underdog. Give me the Red Wolves.

G6. Bradley +2.5 vs. Drake (podcast add)

Drake won both meetings during the season, by 7 @ Bradley and then an 8-point win at home to end the regular season. I love Drake, this play pains me but I'm sticking with the system of it's tough to beat a team 3x in a season when favored by 6 or less.

G7. UNC Asheville -2.5 vs. Gardner Webb (podcast add)

I love UNC Asheville and now it's a system play. Gardner Webb won both meetings during the season, by 7 at home, by 1 @ UNC Asheville. It's tough to beat a team 3x in a season when favored by 6 or less. Give me the Bulldogs!

G8. Sacramento State +1 vs. Idaho (podcast add)

Idaho won the first meeting, 61-58 at home. Idaho won game two on the road 61-45. It's tough to beat a team 3x in a season when favored by 6 or less.

G9. Northern Iowa +7.5 vs. Indiana State

Indiana State won the lone meeting by 11 in Cedar Falls. Sycamores are the class of the Valley, but UNI was won 4 straight including a 14-point win over Drake, 12-point win @ Southern Illinois, and the hard-fought win yesterday over Belmont. Ben Jacobson has them peaking at the right time, I'll grab the points.

G10. Western Carolina +1.5 vs. Furman

Teams split during the season, Furman won by 3 at home, Western won by 8 at home. Catamounts have the #1 D in the SoCon, Paladins are mid-pack on both ends of the floor. Furman lost 3 of 4 down the stretch, I'll take the dog.

G11. Morehead State -3.5 vs. Little Rock

Little Rock has won 10 straight games, solid club that destroyed Western Illinois by 25 in the semis. Game 2 for Little Rock, Game 3 in 3 days for Morehead State. UT Martin gave the Eagles a battle last night before they pulled it out by 6. Morehead State is no stranger to the championship game, I'm counting on that experience to help bring it home. Little Rock won the only meeting during the season by 1 at home.

G12. East Tennessee State +7.5 vs. UNC Greensboro

East Tennessee State won the last game of the regular season over Greensboro by 1. Greensboro won the first meeting by 16. This is a Ken Pom value play; model has UNC Greensboro by 3. I can't pass up 4.5 points of value.

G13. Texas State +6.5 vs. Troy

Texas State won the last game of the regular season over Troy by 3 in OT at home. Troy won the first meeting by 13. First game of the tournament for Troy, 3rd game for Texas State. Bobcats beat ODU in OT on Tuesday, crushed Southern Miss on Thursday, had the off day on Friday. Slight edge to Texas State, familiar with the building. 6.5 is a bit much, I'll grab the points.

G14. High Point -6.5 vs. Longwood

Teams split during the season, High Point won the first meeting by 17, Longwood won the 2nd meeting by 2. High Point started slow yesterday but turned it on for a 14-point win over Radford, Panthers have the #1 O in the Big South. Lancers have won 5 of 7, none the less I think High Point can cover the number today.

G15. Samford -8 vs. Mercer

Most of the time the value is on the underdog, this time it's on the favorite. Teams split during the season, Samford won by 7, Wofford won by 22. I can understand the line based on that result. Body of work has me loving Samford, #83 in the Ken Pom numbers, 12 Top 200 wins. Mercer has 5 Top 200 wins and ranks 7th on both ends of the floor. I'll lay the points.

G16. Bryant -5.5 vs. Maine

Maine won the first meeting by 7, Bryant won the second meeting by 5. Both teams have a good D. Home game for Bryant, I'll lay the points with the Bulldogs.

G17. Oral Roberts +8 vs. South Dakota State

99% crowd edge to the Jackrabbits tonight. South Dakota State lost the first meeting by 5, won the second meeting by 11. Jacks pulled away late in the season to win the Summit, Oral Roberts disappointed most of the year losing 7 down the stretch before beating up on South Dakota last night in the 8/9 game. If we see the ORU that we've seen most of the year, Jacks win by 20. If we see the ORU that we expected to see, the team that lost @ Texas Tech by 6, took K State to OT on the road, and the team that crushed South Dakota last night.....we will have the #1 seed on upset alert. I'm a big Issac McBride guy, I like the underdog story, I'll take the Golden Eagles.

G18. San Diego +11.5 vs. Santa Clara

Did I really watch San Diego win a game last night without making a 2-point shot in the 2H? I was a long day of basketball, but I think that really happened. Teams split during the season, it's March, we saw heavy favorites cover a ton of numbers yesterday....not today. I'll grab the 11.5.

G19. New Hampshire -2 vs. Binghamton

Binghamton played New Hampshire tough during the season winning by 13 at home, losing by 6 in OT on the road. None the less I'm not going to pass up laying only a bucket at home.

G20. Northern Arizona +5.5 vs. Idaho State

Teams split a pair of tight games during the season. Idaho State won by 2 at home. Northern Arizona won by 4 at home in 2OT. Idaho State lost the last 3 games of the year, I can't lay 5.5 so I'll back the dog.

G21. Campbell +5.5 vs. Monmouth

Monmouth won the first meeting by 1 at home. Campbell passed the eye test when they beat Wilmington in 2OT. I'll grab the points.

G22. Marshall +12.5 vs. James Madison

JMU is really good, 28-3 good. They beat Marshall by 15 and 26 during the season. 12.5 in tournament play is still a big number against a team that beat Ohio, UNC Greensboro, Louisiana, and Texas State during the season. Thundering Herd played on this floor already, I'll grab the points.

G23. Merrimack -7 vs. Le Moyne

Merrimack won the first meeting by 4, Merrimack won the second meeting by 16. Warriors have won 11 of 12 and they have the home court edge in this one. Not 6 or less, I'll lay the 7.

G24. UMass Lowell -8 vs. UMBC

River Hawks won both meetings during the season by 4 and 13. Home game vs. neutral, not 6 or less, and it's a Ken Pom value play since he has UMass Lowell by 11.

G25. William & Mary +11.5 vs. Towson

Towson won the lone meeting by 9 @ William & Mary. Tigers are #1 on D, Tribe have won 2 straight....maybe just maybe they can keep this one interesting.

G26. Georgia Southern +13.5 vs. Appalachian State

App State swept the regular season winning by 1 in OT on the road, winning by 10 at home. Now the number is 13.5 on a neutral floor at tournament time. Mountaineers have won 7 straight games, #1 on D, 16-2 in conference. Georgia Southern started 0-12, now 9-23. They've won 4 of 5. They didn't give up at 0-12, I don't expect them to go down without a fight today, so I'll grab the points.

G27. Albany +17.5 @ Vermont

Another Ken Pom value play since he has a 13-point spread. Rare to get 4.5 points of value. I'll grab the points.

G28. Portland +16 vs. San Francisco

San Francisco beat Portland by 27 and 12 during the regular season. The Portland that I watched beat Loyola Marymount last night isn't losing by more than 16 tonight. We will see if THAT team shows up again tonight. I hope they do.

G29. Delaware -10 vs. Hampton

Delaware won the lone meeting during the year by 27. Blue Hens beat Xavier this year, they won @ Towson by double digits. This team has upside, hats off to Hampton for upsetting Elon yesterday but the party is over today.

It's Tournament Time! 17 Conference Tournament Games (Big South, Missouri Valley, CAA, SoCon, OVC, Summit, West Coast)

Fri, 08 Mar 2024 14:16:20 +0000

Blog Partner: https://scheels.sjv.io/g1BanO (Caitlin Clark T-Shirts Available Now)

My Conference Tournament Results:

1H Unders: 21-19-1, 52.5%, up 0.0911 units

Sides: 20-20-1, 50.0%, down 1.818 units

WHAT IF Results: (Not betting, just tracking for future reference)

Every Underdog ATS: 22-18-1, 55.0%, up 2.0002 units

Every Underdog ML: 15-26, 36.6%, up 4.88 units

Tonight's 1H Unders:

Radford/High Point Under 70.5

Missouri State/Indiana State Under 70.5

William & Mary/North Carolina A&T Under 65.5

Longwood/Winthrop Under 68.5

Belmont/Northern Iowa Under 71.5

Hampton/Elon Under 70.5

The Citadel/Mercer Under 65.5

Charleston Southern/UNC Asheville Under 67.5

Evansville/Drake Under 68.5

VMI/East Tennessee State Under 70.5

Western Illinois/Little Rock Under 64.5

Presbyterian/Gardner-Webb Under 67.5

South Dakota/Oral Roberts Under 73

Pepperdine/San Diego Under 72.5

Illinois Chicago/Bradley Under 63.5

Morehead State/UT Martin Under 69.5

Loyola Marymount/Portland Under 67.5

ATS Picks:

G1. Northern Iowa -1 vs. Belmont (from the podcast)

This will be a dandy under the Arch. Belmont continues to pass the eye test, they've won 8 of 9 games, last 7 wins have all been by double digits including the 25-point win over Valpo yesterday that was 42 at one point before they called off the dogs. Bruins rank 5^th in the Valley on offense, 4^th on defense. Back in November, Belmont won @ UNI by 20. In January, Northern Iowa won @ Belmont by 11. UNI has won 5 of 6 including wins over Drake & Bradley during that stretch. Panthers rank a spot below Belmont on both ends of the floor ranking 6^th on offense, 5^th on defense. I said last week that I would bet UNI at Arch Madness, I'm not going to waver this time. Ben Jacobson will have the Panthers ready.

G2. San Diego +1.5 vs. Pepperdine (from the podcast)

Pepperdine Head Coach Lorenzo Romar was informed his week that he was out after the conference tournament, his team decided that wasn't going to be on Thursday. Pepperdine led Pacific 56-9 at halftime yesterday. The Waves ultimately won 102-43 shooting 60% for the floor. I expect a major regression tonight. Pepperdine is now 13-19 on the season, split with San Diego during the season winning by 6 on the road, losing by 2 at home. San Diego and HC Steve Lavin enter this one at 17-14, they beat Pacific in the regular season finale by only 12. That Pacific might help drive this line to 2 or more by tip but I think yesterday was the last stand for Coach Romar at Pepperdine, coaching career at Pepperdine ends tonight.

G3. Oral Roberts -2.5 vs. South Dakota (from the podcast)

Now or never for Oral Roberts. Most disappointing team this year in the Summit, preseason #2, playing in the 8/9 game. Golden Eagles have lost 7 straight games. In January, Oral Roberts beat South Dakota by 18. Couple weeks ago, South Dakota beat Oral Roberts by 1 at home. South Dakota has the better offensive efficiency numbers, Oral the better defensive numbers. Game is in Sioux Falls, South Dakota so the Coyotes will have more fans but the South Dakota State Jackrabbit fans that will occupy most of the seats will be pulling for Oral Roberts so toss any crowd edge out the door. Issac McBride will still be the best player on the floor tonight, give me ORU one more time.

G4. Missouri State +11.5 vs. Indiana State

First game of the day at Arch Madness, all the "other fans" tend to become fans of the underdog especially against the top seed. Missouri State looked good yesterday on this floor, they lost by only 2 in February against Indiana State. Sycamores are #1 on both ends of the floor, excellent team. 11.5 is a bit much in St. Louis. I'll grab the points.

G5. Winthrop +1.5 vs. Longwood

Teams split during the season, Winthrop won by 8 in OT at home, Longwood won by 10 at home. Winthrop lost the final 2 games of the year against top tier teams, High Point by 4 in OT, Gardner Webb by 1. Rank #2 in D, #4 on O. Longwood ranks #7 on O, #6 on D. They beat both High Point & UNC Asheville in the final couple weeks. Evenly matched game, I'll back the efficiency metrics and take Winthrop.

G6. UT Martin +7.5 vs. Morehead State

Both teams finished 14-4 in the OVC, Morehead State coasted to the easy 15-point win over SIUE last night. Teams split during the year, Morehead State won by 18 at home, UT Martin won by 6 at home. Morehead State ranks #1 on both ends of the floor, UT Martin has won 7 straight games. UT Martin will push the pace, could be a factor since Morehead State played last night. I'll grab the points.

G7. Western Illinois +6 vs. Little Rock

9 straight wins for Little Rock, won by 3 @ Western Illinois in February in the only meeting. #2 on both ends of the floor. Western Illinois won a battle last night by 2 over Tennessee State, Western went 13-5 in conference, solid club. 3 of the 5 losses in conference this year for the Leathernecks were by 3 or fewer points. #3 on D, #4 on O. I can't pass up 6 points. I'll take the dog.

G8. Mercer -3.5 vs. The Citadel

The Citadel went 3-15 in conference, only 3 of those losses were by a possession. Teams split during the season; I can't find enough on the Bulldogs resume to back, so I'll lay the points.

G9. Illinois Chicago +12.5 vs. Bradley

These are college kids; it was only the FIRST game so I'm not going to overact to tired legs after a 2OT win last night over Southern Illinois. Bradley swept during the regular season winning by 18 on the road, 12 at home. Braves are solid on both ends but this is another game that I think is in doubt at the under 8 timeout, Bradley pulls away late but won't cover 12.5.

G10. Presbyterian +6.5 vs. Gardner-Webb

Teams split during the year at winning at home. Gardner-Webb won the last 3 over UNC Asheville by 1, Longwood by 3, and Winthrop by 1. Luck used up? Blue Hose have some competitive losses and good wins over Gardner-Webb and Winthrop in February. I'll grab the points.

G11. Evansville +13.5 vs. Drake

Big fan of the Bulldogs, not a fan of the number. Drake won by 49 in the first meeting, 3 in the 2nd. I've never had success laying double digits with Drake, I'll grab the points. Purple Aces will put up a fight.

G12. Elon -3.5 vs. Hampton

Elon won the first meeting by 6 on the road. Phoenix beat Delaware & UNC Wilmington in February showing some signs of progress. Hampton started 0-13 in the CAA, won 3 of 5 to end the year. Body of work edge to Elon, I'll lay the 3.5.

G13. North Carolina A&T +5 vs. William & Mary

A&T won the only meeting of the year by 7. NCA&T lost 9 straight to end the year. Tribe of William & Mary finished 4-14 in the CAA, ended a 9-game losing streak in the season finale beating Hampton. Tribe rank 13th on O, 10th on D. Not exactly numbers that get me excited to lay 5 so I'll grab the 5 instead.

G14. Loyola Marymount -5.5 vs. Portland

Last game of the year, Portland beat Loyola by 10 at home. Pilots upset Santa Clara in the OT the game before that. Those were the only non-Pacific/Pepperdine wins of the conference season for Portland. Loyola Marymount won the first meeting by 27, Lions had the same 5-11 record but they were much more competitive in the losses including 4- & 5-point losses to St. Mary's. Mid-pack team in the efficiency metrics, I'll lay the 5.5.

G15. High Point -10.5 vs. Radford

High Point won the regular season meetings by 14 & 25. Panthers come in off a loss to Longwood by 2. Good wakeup call before tournament play. I'll lay the points.

G16. Charleston Southern +12.5 vs. UNC Asheville

Bulldogs won the last meeting by 31, won the first meeting by 6. I've backed UNC Asheville more than most this season. 20 wins on the year, 12 conference wins. Only 3 of those 12 conference wins were by double digits. They never seemed to run away with anything for me. #1 on D, #2 on O. They might win by 30 but I can't lay 12.5. Give me the points.

G17. VMI +17 vs. East Tennessee State

ETSU beat VMI by 1 on the road, 13 at home. Line was 18.5 in that last meeting; this is on a neutral floor in tournament play. VMI went 1-17 in conference, terrible basketball team but this line is still a couple buckets high.

It's Tournament Time! 21 Conference Tournament Games (Sun Belt, Missouri Valley, West Coast, Patriot, Horizon, ASUN, OVC)

Thu, 07 Mar 2024 05:22:09 +0000

Blog Partner: https://scheels.sjv.io/g1BanO (Caitlin Clark T-Shirts Available Now)

My Conference Tournament Results:

1H Unders: 10-9-1, 52.6%, up 0.091 units

Sides: 8-12, 40.0%, down 4.7272 units

WHAT IF Results: (Not betting, just tracking for future reference)

Every Underdog ATS: 10-10, 50.0%, down 0.909 units

Every Underdog ML: 7-13, 35.0%, up 0.43 units

Tonight's 1H Unders:

Missouri State/Murray State Under 65.5

Purdue Fort Wayne/Oakland Under 70.5

Illinois Chicago/Southern Illinois Under 65.5

Evansville/Illinois State Under 64.5

Marshall/Georgia State Under 71.5

Northern Kentucky/Wright State Under 77.5

Texas State/Southern Miss Under 63.5

Georgia Southern/South Alabama Under 71.5

North Alabama/Austin Peay Under 69.5

Milwaukee/Green Bay Under 68.5

Tennessee State/Western Illinois Under 63.5

Lehigh/Lafayette Under 64.5

Cleveland State/Youngstown State Under 71.5

Bucknell/American Under 61.5

Jacksonville/Stetson Under 65.5

Navy/Boston U Under 62.5

SIUE/Morehead State Under 64.5

Valpo/Belmont Under 73.5

Coastal Carolina/Louisiana Under 70.5

Pacific/Pepperdine Under 71.5

Holy Cross/Colgate Under 67.5

ATS Picks:

G1. Missouri State +2 vs. Murray State (from podcast)

Murray State won both games in the regular season. Won @ Missouri State by 24 as a 5.5-point underdog. Won by 10 at home as a 3.5 points favorite. Say it with me......tough to beat a team 3 times as a 6-point or less favorite.

G2. Illinois Chicago +5.5 vs. Southern Illinois (from podcast)

Southern Illinois won both games in the regular season. Salukis won by 3 @ UIC as a 2.5-point favorite, Salukis won by 12 at home as a 6.5-point favorite. Say it with me......tough to beat a team 3 times as a 6-point or less favorite.

G3. North Alabama +4 @ Austin Peay (from podcast)

Austin Peay won both meetings in the regular season. Governors won by 3 in OT at home as a 3.5-point favorite. Governors won by 8 @ the Lions as a 4.5-point underdog. Say it with me......tough to beat a team 3 times as a 6-point or less favorite.

G4. Lafayette +3.5 vs. Lehigh (from podcast)

The home team is the underdog in tournament play. Lehigh won both meetings during the year. Mountain Hawks won by 4 at home as a 3.5-point favorite, Mountain Hawks won @ the Leopards by 8 as a 3.5-point favorite. Say it with me......tough to beat a team 3 times as a 6-point or less favorite.

G5. Bucknell +5 @ American (from podcast)

Both teams finished 10-8 in the Patriot. American won both meetings during the regular season. Eagles won by 8 @ Bucknell as a 1-point underdog. Eagles won at home by 9 in OT over the Bison as a 4.5-point favorite. Say it with me......tough to beat a team 3 times as a 6-point or less favorite.

G6. South Alabama -2.5 vs. Georgia Southern

South Alabama has won 6 of 8 losing only to Arkansas State during that stretch. Georgia Southern started the year 0-12, finished 8-23 on the season including 3 of 4 wins down the stretch. Both teams beat each other at home, Jaguars are more balanced, so I'll lay the 2.5.

G7. Coastal Carolina +12.5 vs. Louisiana

Louisiana won the only meeting during the season by 8 at home. Ragin Cajuns lost 4 of 5 to end the season plus I give Coastal Carolina a slight edge for already playing in this building on Tuesday.

G8. Belmont -12.5 vs. Valparaiso

Beacons ended an 11-game skid on Sunday beating Illinois State. Belmont won both meeting this year by 9 & 18. Bruins are playing some good basketball winning 7 of 8 including a 14-point win over Southern Illinois, 15-point win @ UIC, 15-win over Missouri State, 22-point win @ Murray State, and a 17-point win over Evansville.

G9. Pacific +10.5 vs. Pepperdine

Both head coaches have been fired, Leonard Perry & Lorenzo Romar. Pepperdine won both meetings by 15 & 19. With the coaching changes, portal discussion, and chaos.....I'll grab the points.

G10. Texas State PK over Southern Miss

Coinflip game to say the least. Texas State won by 5 at home, Southern Miss won by 4 at home. Southern Miss lost 4 of 6 down the stretch, Texas State has won 4 straight plus survived an OT game on this floor on Tuesday. Southern Miss offense ranks 12th in efficiency.

G11. Evansville +3.5 vs. Illinois State

Purple Aces lost 7 straight games to end the year. Illinois State lost to Valparaiso to end the year. Evansville won by 4 at home, Illinois State won by 7 at home. This is Arch Madness, of course I'm going to back a team that has lost 7 straight games.

G12. Oakland -3.5 vs. Purdue Fort Wayne

Oakland lost to Purdue Fort Wayne back in December by 21 at home but them on the road by 8. Grizzlies won 8 of 10 down the stretch. Mastodons started 4-0 in the Horizon, finished 11-9. PFW won on Tuesday over Robert Morris, but I like how Oakland is playing so I'll lay the points.

G13. Cleveland State +9.5 @ Youngstown State

Cleveland State lost the conference opener at Youngstown 94-69, beat them in February at home 81-73. Vikings had good road wins @ Bradley & Purdue Fort Wayne this year, they have some talent. Youngstown State has won 3 straight games, #1 D in the Horizon, #2 O. 9.5 is just a bit too much for me, I'll grab the points.

G14. Jacksonville +6.5 @ Stetson

Glass slipper will likely fall off tonight. 3rd game in 4 days for the Dolphins. Big upset of #1 Eastern Kentucky on Tuesday. Stetson beat Jacksonville at home last week 86-73, beat them by 16 at home back in January. Tournament time is crazy, Jacksonville is the story of the week, I'll grab the points one more time.

G15. Colgate -17.5 vs. Holy Cross

I cashed on Holy Cross already this week, but Colgate is #1 on O, #1 on D. Colgate can turn it on at any moment, 16-2 in the Patriot coming off a subpar 3-point win @ Lehigh. I'll lay the points.

G16. Boston U -3.5 vs. Navy

Boston U has won 5 straight games, beat Navy by 9 at home, lost by 2 on the road. Navy has now won 5 straight games after crushing Loyola MD this week by 6. Short enough number for me to back the home team, I like how the Terriers have looked.

G17. Western Illinois -2 vs. Tennessee State

Impressive debut season for the Leathernecks moving over from the Summit. 13-5 in conference, winning 5 of 6 down the stretch, Top 4 on both ends of the floor. Lost by 1 at home to Tennessee State, beat them by 7 on the road. Tennessee State gets a slight edge for playing on this court last night, but the efficiency metrics force me to lay the points.

G18. Northern Kentucky +7.5 @ Wright State

Watch out for Scott Nagy and the Raiders in this tournament. #1 O in the Horizon, his teams improve during the year. Swept Northern Kentucky this year, won by 7 on the road, won by 6 at home. Northern Kentucky has the #2 D in the Horizon, they just played these guys in this building on Saturday. That favors the underdog, give me the points.

G19. Georgia State -1 vs. Marshall

Teams split during the season. Marshall won the first meeting by 9. Georgia State won by 3 at home on Saturday. Rubber match tonight at a neutral site. Marshall has lost 7 straight games; I don't see that ending today, metrics edge to the Panthers.

G20. Green Bay -1 vs. Milwaukee

I have no pulse on either team. I deferred this pick to the KenPom numbers. He has Green Bay 75-71 so I'm going with Green Bay. I would've bet Milwaukee for what it's worth.

G21. Morehead State -8 vs. SIU Edwardsville

Outstanding effort from the Little E on Wednesday winning by 11 over Eastern Illinois. Teams split during the season, SIUE won by 13 at home, Morehead State won by 11 at home. Eagles of Morehead State are #1 on both ends of the floor, won 14 conference games, won 13 of those by double digits. Yes, I'll lay the points.

It's Tournament Time! 7 Conference Tournament Games (NEC, OVC, Big South)

Wed, 06 Mar 2024 19:10:37 +0000

Blog Partner: https://scheels.sjv.io/g1BanO (Caitlin Clark T-Shirts Available Now)

My Conference Tournament Results:

1H Unders: 7-5-1, 58.3%, up 1.0872 units

Sides: 6-7, 46.2%, down 1.5454 units

WHAT IF Results: (Not betting, just tracking for future reference)

Every Underdog ATS: 7-6, 53.8%, up 0.3637 units

Every Underdog ML: 6-7, 46.2%, up 4.58 units

Tonight's 1H Unders:

Radford/USC Upstate Under 65.5 (DraftKings)

Eastern Illinois/SIUE Under 67.5 (DraftKings)

Southern Indiana/Tennessee State Under 67.5 (DraftKings)

Fairleigh Dickinson/Le Moyne Under 72

Wagner/Sacred Heart Under 61.5 (DraftKings)

Saint Francis/Central Connecticut Under 63.5 (DraftKings)

LIU/Merrimack Under 65.5 (DraftKings)

ATS Picks:

G1. Merrimack -15 vs. LIU (from the podcast last night w/KotaCapperKyle

I liked Kyle's take on this game, I tailed him.

G2. USC Upstate +5.5 vs. Radford

Teams split during the regular season winning at home. USC Update won by 9, Radford by 3. KenPom has Radford by 3. Highlanders have lost 7 of 9, Spartans are 4-4 in the L8. Upstate has shown upside with the win @ High Point. I'll grab the points.

G3. SIU Edwardsville -2.5 vs. Eastern Illinois

Teams split during the regular season winning at home. SIUE won by 9, Eastern Illinois won by 5. Cougars dropped 3 straight games to end the year, Panthers lost 3 of 4 down the stretch. Top 200 Wins: Eastern won @ #192 Little Rock. SIUE beat #123 Morehead State and #192 Little Rock at home. SIUE is 5th best on both ends of the floor, Eastern Illinois is #8 on O, #6 on D. I'll lay the 2.5 in the revenge spot after losing 2/27 @ Eastern.

G4. Southern Indiana +3.5 vs. Tennessee State

Teams split during the regular season winning at home. Southern Indiana won by 2, Tennessee State won by 5. Tennessee State went 10-8 in the OVC, best win was over #192 Little Rock. Southern Indiana was just 5-13, best win over #123 Morehead State. Based on the first two meetings, I need to grab the points.

G5. Fairleigh Dickinson +4 @ Le Moyne

Teams split during the regular season both winning on the road. FDU won by 11, Le Moyne won by 10. Le Moyne is good on offense, #2 in NEC. FDU is good on defense, #4 in NEC. FDU went 5-2 on the road down in L7. Went 5-3 in L8 games of the year, only losses were against 1-3 in the NEC. Might be peaking at the right time, I'm grabbing the points.

G6. Wagner +5.5 @ Sacred Heart (My Best Bet)

Sacred Heart won both meetings during the regular season. Won by 5 as a 4.5-point favorite at home, won by 10 on the road as a 2.5-point dog. This isn't a "short" 3 or less but I'm playing anything 6 or less that lost the first 2. Jacksonville & Holy Cross cashed already, let's make it 3 for 3 with Wagner.

G7. Central Connecticut -13.5 vs. Saint Francis

Blue Devils swept during the regular season, won by 1 at home, won by 14 on the road. Saint Francis was just 3-13 in conference, didn't win a road game in conference, lost 5 straight games to end the year, rank 9th on D, rank 8th on O. 13 double digit losses for the Red Flash, Blue Devils had 9 double digit wins. I'll lay the points at home.

KotaCapperKyle's Best Bet for Wednesday

Wed, 06 Mar 2024 04:30:51 +0000

Blog Partner: https://scheels.sjv.io/g1BanO (Caitlin Clark Never A Long Shot and You Break It, You Own It T-Shirts Available Now)

YTD Best Bet: 3-1

Best Bet: Iowa State -6.5 vs. BYU

As an Iowa Hawkeye fan, this pick makes me absolutely sick, but there’s no denying the fantastic season the Cyclones are having. They are an absolute menaces on defense this year allowing a mere 61.9 ppg, which is 5th in all of college basketball. They are also getting it done on the offensive end, scoring 76.6 ppg (74th in CBB) and shooting an impressive 46.8% from the field (53rd in CBB). They are playing a really talented BYU team, there’s no doubt about what the Cougars have been able to do on the offensive end, but there’s one thing that sold me on this pick the second that I looked at it: The Cyclones are at home. They are 17-0 at home this season straight up and are 14-3 ATS. One thing that I can absolutely give the Cyclone fans credit on is that they show up for their basketball team, and Hilton Coliseum has turned into one of the best home environments in all of college basketball. BYU, not very good on the road. They are 3-6 straight up on the road this year and are 2-7 ATS. That sold me, and I think this is going to be a one sided game in the Cyclones favor.

It's Tournament Time! 11 Conference Tournament Games (Patriot, Sun Belt, Horizon, ASUN)

Tue, 05 Mar 2024 21:13:57 +0000

Blog Partner: https://scheels.sjv.io/g1BanO (Caitlin Clark Never A Long Shot and You Break It, You Own It T-Shirts Available Now)

My Conference Tournament Results:

1H Unders: 2-0, 100%, up 1.7392 units

Sides: 1-1, 50%, down 0.0909 units

WHAT IF Results: (Not betting, just tracking for future reference)

Every Underdog ATS: 2-0, 100%, up 1.8182 units

Every Underdog ML: 2-0, 100%, up 2.68 units

Tonight's 1H Unders:

Holy Cross/Army Under 61.5 (FanDuel)

Coastal Carolina/ULM Under 68 (DraftKings)

Robert Morris/Purdue Fort Wayne Under 69.5 (DraftKings)

IUPUI/Cleveland State Under 68.5 (FanDuel)

Jacksonville/Eastern Kentucky Under 67.5 (DraftKings)

Loyola Maryland/Navy Under 62.5 (FanDuel)

Queens/Stetson Under 76.5 (FanDuel)

Detroit Mercy/Milwaukee Under 72.5 (DraftKings)

North Alabama/Lipscomb Under 75 (DraftKings)

North Florida/Austin Peay Under 67 (DraftKings)

Old Dominion/Texas State Under 64.5 (DraftKings)

ATS Picks:

G1. Holy Cross +4.5 @ Army (from the podcast last night)

Army won the first 2 meetings; line is short enough for me to back the underdog.

G2. Louisiana-Monroe -1.5 vs. Coastal Carolina

6-12 vs. 5-13 in the Sun Belt, Warhawks won the first meeting by 4.

G3. Stetson -5.5 vs. Queens

Teams split during the year both winning on the road. Queens won @ Stetson by 8 on February 22nd. Queens won in this building last night, Stetson will have the home court edge tonight for revenge.

G4. Loyola Maryland +7 @ Navy

Teams split during the regular season both winning on the road in games decided by 4 & 7. Navy was won 4 straight games, but I'll grab the points.

G5. Milwaukee -11.5 vs. Detroit

I don't have it in me to grab the points with a 1-30 basketball team. Milwaukee won the first meeting by 23, won the second meeting by 16. I'll lay the points.

G6. Austin Peay -2.5 vs. North Florida

This is a tough one that I expect to be in doubt at the under 4 timeout. Austin Peay won the first meeting at home in 2OT, 95-91. Governors have won 7 of 8. Let's keep the party going.

G7. Texas State -3 vs. Old Dominion

First meeting of the year in the conference tournament, not a fan of that. Common opponents/same location: Texas State 4-5, ODU 1-8. That's enough of an edge for me.

G8. North Alabama +7.5 @ Lipscomb

Teams split during the season; North Alabama has played well against the top in the ASUN. Lost @ Eastern Kentucky by 3 a couple weeks back, beat Stetson & Lipscomb at home, took Austin Peay to OT on the road. Lipscomb is hot, winning 7 of 8. Just beat #1 Eastern Kentucky by 14 to finish the season but I need some dogs on my card. I'll grab the points.

G9. Robert Morris +11.5 @ Purdue Fort Wayne

Ken Pom has this at 13, hate going against that but these two faced each other at end the regular season. Mastodons won by 18. Robert Morris won the first meeting in OT by 3. Colonials are limping in with 6 straight losses, but this is tournament time, I expect things to tighten up just a bit.

G10. IUPUI +16.5 @ Cleveland State

I couldn't bet on Detroit but I'm going to bite the bullet with 6-25 IUPUI. IUPUI has played Cleveland State tough, lost by 9 in the first meeting, lost by 9 to end the regular season on Saturday.

G11. Eastern Kentucky -8.5 vs. Jacksonville

At home, coming off back-to-back losses, Eastern Kentucky looks like a good pick to me. Colonels ran Jacksonville out of the gym in the first meeting winning by 16. After watching the Dolphins score 92 in this gym last night against Kennesaw State, I expect them to be ready to go.

It's Tournament Time! ASUN First Round - 2 Games (4 Bets)

Mon, 04 Mar 2024 21:12:46 +0000

For those of you that remember last year, I bet every single 1H under in tournament play.

2023 Results:

Conference Tournaments: 175-126-4 (58.1%)

NCAA Tournament: 34-31-2 (52.3%)

Tonight's 1H Totals:

Game 1: Queens/Florida Gulf Coast Under 73.5 (-115)

Game 2: Jacksonville/Kennesaw State Under 70.5 (-115)

This year, I will also be betting every single side on this blog. Wish me luck!

Tonight's Sides (placed on the podcast last night)

#10 Jacksonville +4 vs. Kennesaw State (in Richmond, KY with the winner to face #1 Eastern Kentucky on Tuesday)

Kennesaw State won the first meeting @ Jacksonville by 4 as a 4.5-point favorite. Neither team ever led the game by more than 6. Evenly matched game. Kennesaw State won the 2^nd meeting at home by 5 as a 5.5-point favorite. The largest lead of the 2^nd half was the final score in that one, another evenly matched game. L10: Kennesaw State was 2-8, Jacksonville was 4-6. Neutral/Away setting: Jacksonville won 3 games all year with the most recent on December 2nd. Kennesaw State won 6 away from home. Owls rank 9^th on O, 8^th on D. Dolphins rank 12^th on O, 1^st on D. I'm hoping the 3^rd time will be the charm for the team with the better defense. Let's grab the points.

#7 Florida Gulf Coast -4 vs. Queens (in DeLand, FL with the winner to face #2 Stetson on Tuesday)

These 2 split the season series, Queens won the first meeting by 3 at home as a 2.5-point favorite. Neither team led by more than 7 in an evenly matched game. Florida Gulf Coast won the 2^nd meeting by 9 at home as a 3.5-point favorite. Queens led by 14 at home point before the Eagles rallied by shooting over 53% for the game. Last 10: Florida Gulf Coast is 6-4, Queens is 5-5. Queens had just 2 road/neutral wins on the year but one was over Stetson in this building. Florida Gulf Coast has 5 wins away from home including the last 2 games winning @ North Florida & Jacksonville. Eagles are #2 on D, #8 on O. Queens is #7 on O, #6 on D. I probably shouldn't be laying 4 but Pat Chambers has the Eagles peaking the right time after winning 3 straight. Maybe this team can still live up to the #2 preseason ranking. Let's lay the points.

Free NBA Prop Best Bet (Tyrese Haliburton Over 18.5 points)

Sun, 03 Mar 2024 18:28:15 +0000

YTD Blog Best Bet: 7-7, 50.0%, down 0.8346 units (2-0 in March)

Today's Best Bet: Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers) Over 18.5 points @ San Antonio (-105 on BetMGM)

Spurs rank 30th defending the position, rank 26th in points allowed, 27th defending the 3, and 25th in FG % allowed. All good numbers for an over.

1 game against San Antonio this year back in November: 27 minutes, 9/19 shooting, 23 points

Haliburton is averaging 21.0 PPG on the season, but his numbers have fallen off significantly since averaging 28.6 PPG in November. 21.4 PPG in December, 17.9 PPG in January, 16.1 PPG in February, and now he was held scoreless for just the 2nd time in his career last out going 0/6 on 3's. He's now gone under this number in 4 straight games.

Spurs D is just what the doctor ordered for a bounce back game. That's what I'm expecting today.

KotaCapperKyle's Best Bet for Sunday (Saint Peter's -11.5 vs. Manhattan)

Sun, 03 Mar 2024 04:49:52 +0000

YTD Best Bet: 2-1

Best Bet: Saint Peter's -11.5 vs. Manhattan

The Peacocks are in a bit of a hot streak as of late. They have won four straight games and have covered in their last five games. The defense for the Peacocks has been the reason for this success, as they are allowing only 63.3 points per contest, which is 7th in all of college basketball. In their last five games they have allowed 53, 53, 65, 60, and 64 points. They are allowing their opponents to shoot only 42% from the field, and they make nothing easy for anyone they are going up against. They are going up against a Manhattan squad that is statistically one of the worst scoring teams in the country, scoring a pitiful 65.8 ppg, 323rd in CBB. They have also lost eight of their last ten games and have failed to cover in three of their last five. This is a classic game where one team is playing really good basketball and the other team is playing poor basketball. Saint Peter's is still very much in the hunt for that top seed in the MAAC, and a big win here will give them some good momentum going into their last two games of the regular season.

Last Bet - March 2, 2024 (Vince Williams Over 13.5 points)

Sat, 02 Mar 2024 21:29:04 +0000

YTD Last Bet: 6-7, 46.1%, down 1.7961 units

Today's Last Bet: Vince Williams (Grizzlies) Over 13.5 points vs Portland (-104)

Blazers rank 23rd defending the position, rank 26th in FG % allowed, and rank 17th in points allowed.

Williams is averaging just 9.5 PPG on the season, 12.1 PPG as a starter, and 13.3 PPG in February. Injuries increased his minutes and attempts, he had a stretch of 16 straight in double-digits, now he's been in single digits 3 of his last 4 and he's been under this number in 6 of 7. Last night he faced Portland, 29 minutes, 3/7 shooting, 8 points. Grizzlies lost the game 122-92 as the slight favorite.

I'm banking on a much different result and gameplan tonight for both the Grizzlies & Williams. Let's cheer for points.

Last Bet - March 1, 2024 (Kevin Huerter Under 11.5 points)

Fri, 01 Mar 2024 23:29:04 +0000

New month, hopefully new results for these last bets.

YTD Last Bet: 5-7, 41.6%, down 2.5961 units

Today's Last Bet: Kevin Huerter (Kings) Under 11.5 points (-125) @ Minnesota

Huerter prop jumped to 12.5 @ Denver after 3 straight overs. Prior to that his number was 9.5 @ Denver on February 14th.

Minnesota ranks 2nd defending the position, rank 1st in points allowed, 1st in FG % against, and 2nd defending the 3. Timberwolves check all the boxes to limit production.

Huerter is averaging 11 PPG on the season, 11.5 PPG in February. 2 games against MN this year. Game 1 - 24 minutes, 4/8 shooting, 10 points. Game 2 - 15 minutes, 1/7 shooting, 2 points.

Is it too much to ask for a 3rd straight under? Not sure but I'm going to find out.

Last Bet - February 28, 2024 (Illinois -11 vs. Minnesota)

Wed, 28 Feb 2024 20:30:53 +0000

YTD Last Bet: 5-6, 45.4%, down 1.5961 units

Tough for me to find winners of late. I strongly considered:

Tulane +2.5 vs. North Texas looks like a great underdog play, revenge spot for the Green Wave.

Northwestern +6.5 @ Maryland looks interesting, KenPom value play since he a 66-63 final.

Oklahoma State -2 vs. UCF is a nice price if you think the Cowboys can quickly recover from the OU buzzer beater.

Today's Last Bet: Illinois -11 vs. Minnesota

This shouldn't surprise podcast listeners, I'm on record saying that I would fade Minnesota the rest of season no matter what. Golden Gophers are 23-4 ATS this year, 85.2%. Each game is unique, I understand. I'm just saying things tend to level out. 73.5% was the best ATS last year, 76.5% the year prior, 77.8% the year before that, 75.8% the year before that, 76.7% the year before that. I refuse to believe that this Gopher team will be the team that final hits 80% ATS. After losing by 18 @ Nebraska on Sunday, Minnesota will be fired up to show everyone that the season isn't over just yet, but I give Illinois a huge edge with guard play and expect them to pull away in the 2H for the easy double-digit W.

KotaCapperKyle's Best Bet for Wednesday (Richmond -5 @ Saint Louis)

Tue, 27 Feb 2024 20:35:39 +0000

YTD Best Bet: 1-1

Best Bet: Richmond -5 @ Saint Louis

If you have been betting Richmond all season long, you have a lot of money in your pocket. The Spiders are giving the sportsbooks the creeps and the chills like I am sure they do to a lot of you listening at home, as Richmond is 19-7-1 ATS this season, the 5th best in all of college basketball. They simply have done it all betting wise for all of us. This is one of the many teams that does great things on both ends of the court. All five of their starters are averaging over 9 ppg with their Guard Jordan King being their top scorer on average at 18.1 ppg. They also shoot an impressive 46.1% from the field this season, which is 62nd in all of college basketball. What makes Richmond so scary (like all of those Spiders I mentioned before that I am sure are running through your brain, sorry about that) is that they are actually a lot better defensively than they are offensively. They are allowing only 65.9 ppg, which is 24th in all of college basketball. They have found ways to hold their opponents to low totals, allowing more than 70 points only nine times this season. They suffered a tough loss to Bradley this week and are now tied at the top of the conference with Loyola Chicago. They are playing one of the worst teams in the conference in St. Louis, who has only covered twice in their last ten games. The Spiders need a statement win to get them back in the top spot, and I think this number is too low given those circumstances.

KotaCapperKyle's Best Bet for Tuesday (UNLV -5.5 @ Wyoming)

Tue, 27 Feb 2024 18:35:39 +0000

Getting the Rebels at -5.5 is value, as it should be way higher. UNLV is 15-9 ATS this season and 8-5 on the road. They have been rolling as of late and have been very productive shooting from the field this season, shooting 46.4%, 62nd in CBB. It is tough to guard and scout against the Rebels this season, as they have four out of their five starters averaging double figures in scoring. They love to spread the wealth, and anybody can be the leading scorer at any time, making them dangerous to any opponent they face. Meanwhile, Wyoming has been struggling as of late, losing their last two games and are a poor 1-3-1 ATS in their last five. Historically, the Cowboys are one of the best in the country at home ATS, but that is not the case this season. They are a pitiful 3-6-1 ATS at home this season, and are not finding ways to get the job done at home. With all that being put to the side, I checked out the public numbers vs. the line movement to see if I could find anything out of the ordinary, and I found something interesting. 84% of the public is betting on Wyoming, but the line has not moved. Normally a line will shift when the public is heavy on one side, unless sharp money is going on the other side. I think sharp money is on the Rebels tonight, and I am going to ride with UNLV -5.5 as my best bet for today!

Last Bet - February 26, 2024 (Alec Burks Over 9.5 points)

Mon, 26 Feb 2024 20:54:35 +0000

YTD Last Bet: 5-5, 50.0%, down 0.5961 units

Today's Last Bet: Alec Burks (Knicks) Over 9.5 points vs. Detroit (-104 on FanDuel)

3 most likely ways to cash this ticket:

1. Increased minutes based on a non-competitive game; Knicks are -11.5.

2. Coaching staff/players get Burks a few extra opportunities in his first game vs. his old team.

3. He shoots significantly better than his 38.7% YTD average.

His days of averaging 17.4 PPG in January are long gone since moving from Detroit to New York. Burks has gone under this number in 3 of 4 shooting just 11 of 40 from the field or 27.5%. I would expect that number to be much better tonight against the Pistons who rank 25th in FG % allowed and 27th in points allowed per game. Let's cheer for points.

Last Bet - February 23, 2024 (Jordan Poole Over 13.5 points @ Oklahoma City)

Fri, 23 Feb 2024 20:30:54 +0000

YTD Last Bet: 4-5, 44.4%, down 1.3961 units

Today's Last Bet: Jordan Poole (Wizards) Over 13.5 points @ Oklahoma City (-125)

Poole keeps getting minutes and plenty of shot opportunities. 4/17 last night @ Denver, scored 18. 15 attempts @ New Orleans in his last game before the ASB, 7/15 shooting, 19 points.

Poole is much better than his 28.8% shooting % this month. Just keep shooting and hopefully he will make enough tonight to go over this number.

I like the number so I'm going over.

Last Bet - February 22, 2024 (Zach Collins Over 7.5 points)

Thu, 22 Feb 2024 20:30:54 +0000

YTD Last Bet: 4-4, 50%, down 0.3961 units

Today's Last Bet: Zach Collins (Spurs) Over 7.5 points @ Kings (-125)

Positives:

Collins gone under in 3 straight games, 5/16 shooting during that stretch. (I like bounce back spots)

He went over in 4 straight games prior to this 3-game skid.

11.5 PPG on the season, 11.7 PPG when on 3+ days rest.

1 game against the Kings this year, 34 minutes, 10/14 shooting, 28 points.

Kings rank 30th defending the offensive glass, rank 22nd in FG % allowed.

Negatives:

Minutes, attempts, and points have been down significantly since the month of December.

7.8 PPG in January, 7.6 PPG in February.

Kings rank 11th defending the position.

Collins has done well of late on the glass and as a shot blocker, might earn some minutes back. At 7.5, I'll take my chances that he will get enough shots to drop tonight.

Last Bet - February 21, 2024 (Northern Iowa -1.5 @ Illinois State)

Wed, 21 Feb 2024 20:35:56 +0000

YTD Last Bet: 4-3, 57.1%, up 0.6039 units

Today's Last Bet: Northern Iowa -1.5 @ Illinois State

Down to 4 games in the regular season before Arch Madness in St. Louis, crazy. Northern Iowa is currently in a 3-way for 4th at 9-7, Top 4 get the first-round bye so a 3-1 finish at minimum is critical for the Panthers. Illinois State is currently tied for 8th at 7-9 in the Valley. Both teams have won 2 straight, Illinois State had the big road win @ Indiana State last week. Redbirds have the 48th best home court edge but have lost 6 games at home this year. Norfolk State, Southern Illinois, Valparaiso, Drake, Bradley, and Illinois Chicago have all managed to beat them at CEFCU Arena. Northern Iowa is 5-7 on the road this year, wins over Northern Illinois, Missouri State, Murray State, Belmont, and Valparaiso. Panthers have the edge in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Top 100 Wins: UNI 3 (Stanford, Richmond, Bradley), Illinois State 1 (Indiana State). Only meeting of the season between the schools, I think Ben Jacobson and the Panthers get it done tonight on the road.

KotaCapperKyle's Best Bet for Wednesday (DePaul/Marquette Under 150.5)

Wed, 21 Feb 2024 01:01:57 +0000

KotaCapperKyle's YTD Best Bets: 0-0

Best Bet of the Day: Marquette-DePaul Under 150.5

Marquette is coming off a game where they only scored 53 points. Granted, it was against the #1 team in the country in UConn, but that still is not going to sit well with them. They are going to come out and not only try to score a lot of points but also be locked in on defense. A lot of people know Marquette for their offensive stars like Tyler Kolek and Kam Jones, but they are very solid defensively too, allowing only 68.7 ppg. Meanwhile, to say that the season has been bad for DePaul would be an understatement, winning only three games: South Dakota, Louisville, and Chicago State. They are scoring a mere 64.3 ppg, the 20th worst in CBB and only shooting 42% from the field. Marquette is going to make this be a slobernocker, but the amount of points that DePaul is going to score against this team is what is going to make this game go under. Add that to the fact that Marquette is also 9-16 to the over this season, that total seems too high. Give me Marquette-DePaul Under the 150.5.

Last Bet - February 20, 2024 (Maryland Team Total Under 61.5 points)

Tue, 20 Feb 2024 20:56:30 +0000

YTD Last Bet: 4-2, 66.7%, up 1.6039 units

Today's Last Bet: Maryland Under 61.5 points (DraftKings -105)

Full disclosure: I'm terrible at Wisconsin ATS picks, first time attempting a team total this year. Badgers have dropped 5 of 6, gave up 88 points in OT to Iowa on Saturday. Most points allowed this year by the Badgers in a Big 10 game, only Arizona has scored more against Wisconsin. I have a ton of respect for Greg Gard as a HC, his comments after the game likely set the tone for tonight:

"Riddle we couldn't solve today."

"We could never get our heels dug in."

"They constantly had us off balance, and we could never get enough stops."

"Defensively is where a lion's share of this game, in terms of the faults that we had, will be assessed at."

Translation: I expect the Badgers to be focused on that end of the floor tonight.

Maryland is the 2nd lowest scoring team in the Big 10 this year averaging 66.6 points per game.

Maryland Road Loss Scoring:

@ Villanova (+6.5/133 total)......Terps scored 40

@ Indiana (+2.5/135.5 total)......Terps scored 53

@ Minnesota (+1.5/135.5 total)......Terps scored 62

@ Northwestern (+5/131.5 total)......Terps scored 69

@ Michigan State (+6/129.5 total)......Terps scored 54

@ Ohio State (+2.5/132 total)......Terps scored 75 (2OT)

Average Points @ Above Average D's: 52.25 points

Average Points @ Below Average D's: 72 points

Badger D ranks 4th out of 14, above average. I'm on the UNDER.

Last Bet - February 19, 2024 (Notre Dame @ Duke WBB Over 129)

Mon, 19 Feb 2024 20:56:30 +0000

YTD Last Bet: 3-2, 60.0%, up 0.6948 units

Today's Last Bet: Notre Dame @ Duke Women's College Basketball Over 129

In ACC games, Duke is #1 in conference giving up 57.8 PPG, Notre Dame is #6 giving up 66 PPG. Looks like an under. Duke has gone under this number in 5 straight so why go over? Both teams are 8-5 in the ACC, evenly matched, should be a competitive game. Competitive game = foul game opportunity, OT opportunity. Plus, I love that both teams are coming off a loss with a disappointing effort on offense. Duke scored 56 @ Va Tech shooting 36.5%. Notre Dame scored 43 last out against NC State shooting just 26.9%. Irish average 81.3 PPG and shoot 45.6%. Even against the top D in the ACC, I expect a much better offensive effort.

Last Bet - February 18, 2024 (Tyrese Haliburton Over 16.5 points)

Sun, 18 Feb 2024 20:56:30 +0000

YTD Last Bet: 2-2, 50.0%, down 0.1385 units

Today's Last Bet: Tyrese Haliburton Over 16.5 points (-120)

- They are comparing Haliburton to a prom king this weekend. Indiana is hosting the All-Star game for the first time since 1985, he's the face of the franchise, young star on the rise. I like the storyline. Let's cheer for points.

Last Bet - February 17, 2024 (CBB: Nevada +1.5 @ UNLV)

Sat, 17 Feb 2024 20:56:30 +0000

Mixed results and feelings so far today with the podcast card.

The Good: Creighton won by 22 @ Butler, Kansas won by 10 @ Oklahoma.

The Bad: Wisconsin -1 lost in OT @ Iowa

The Painful: Virginia won by 2 shooting 1 of 11 on free throws, I had -2.5

YTD Last Bet: 1-2, 33.3%, down 1.0476 units

Today's Last Bet: Nevada +1.5 @ UNLV

- First meeting of the year between the 2

- Nevada lost by 1 vs. New Mexico on Tuesday, UNLV won by 2 @ Fresno State for 5 straight W's (I like betting on the team coming off a loss vs. a team coming off a win)

- Rebels rank 4th on O, 7th on D, Wolf Pack rank 3rd on O, 6th on D

- Nevada has Top 100 road wins already this year @ Washington & @ Utah State

- UNLV has home losses to Southern, Utah State, and Air Force

Size: Advantage Nevada, Bench: Advantage Nevada, the 4-game losing streak against UNLV ends tonight, I like the Wolf Pack on the road.

Last Bet - February 16, 2024 (CBB: Penn +6 over Yale)

Fri, 16 Feb 2024 20:56:30 +0000

And my perfect season with my Last Bet is over. Good 1 day run, sad to see it end. LOL.

YTD Last Bet: 1-1, 50%, down 0.0476 units

Today's Last Bet: Pennsylvania +6 vs. Yale in college basketball.

I had 3 people DM today that I should play this game, they think the Quakers might win this one straight up.

Interesting to see that type of love for a team that has dropped 6 straight and is just 1-6 in the Ivy. Yale is 7-0 in the Ivy, winners of 9 straight, and #1 in adj. efficiency on both ends of the floor.

X Factor: Penn Guard Clark Slajchert, averaging 16.9 PPG on the season. He played last weekend for the first time since December 30th @ Houston. He shot 4/11 against Princeton on Saturday, I would expect better numbers tonight in his second game back.

This is also that sandwich/trap game for the Bulldogs. Beat Penn soundly by 16 in the first meeting, just won a showdown game over Cornell by 2 last weekend and have archrival Princeton on the schedule tomorrow.

3 knowledgeable basketball fans all giving me the same play, I'm going to run with it.

Last Bet - February 15, 2024

Thu, 15 Feb 2024 20:56:30 +0000

Always nice to start something new with a winner. Cashed Amir Coffey Over 9.5 last night.

YTD Last Bet: 1-0, 100%, up .9524 units

Let's see if I can hit back-to-back before the All-Star break.

Today's Last Bet: Lauri Markkanen Over 22.5 points vs. Golden State (-108 on FanDuel)

- Lowest point prop for Markkanen since January 10th

- Averaging 23.4 PPG on the year, 24.1 PPG at home, 23.2 PPG in February

- Faced Golden State on Monday: 34 minutes, 8/17 shooting, ZERO FT attempts, and 19 points

- Warriors rank 19th defending the position, rank 21st in points allowed

- Markkanen has gone under in 3 straight and 6 of 8

I like players in bounce back spots. 6/15 shooting last night vs. the Lakers, I expect a much better effort tonight vs. a favorable D.

Last Bet - February 14, 2024

Wed, 14 Feb 2024 20:56:30 +0000

Lineups and numbers change during the day. I'm going to start posting my LAST BET of the day on this blog. I've had a nice run with my prop bets over the last year so let's see if these blog posts can match that success.

Last Bet YTD: 0-0 (0%), up 0 units

Today's Last Bet: Amir Coffey (Clippers) Over 9.5 points @ Golden State (-105 on FanDuel)

- Warriors rank 17th defending the position

- Kawhi Leonard out tonight, uptick in minutes likely

- December 29th was the last game that Leonard missed, Coffey played 31 minutes, 5/6 shooting, scored 13

- Coffey has gone over this number in 3 of 4 playing 26, 21, and 26 minutes.

- Averaging 10.3 PPG in February shooting 57.1% vs. 56.1% on the season

Let's get some points tonight.

Baseball Parlay for September 6th

Wed, 06 Sep 2023 17:14:00 +0000

My "have fun" MLB parlay for today on BetRivers:

Not a fun day yesterday, new day today.

JP Sears Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-103)

Texas Rangers Over 4.5 Runs (-103)

Chris Flexen Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-105)

Have Fun Parlay Rules:

3 legs, +600 or more odds, 5% of a normal unit

Odds: +668

YTD 5-25 (up 0.1135 units)

Baseball Parlay for September 5th

Tue, 05 Sep 2023 18:31:00 +0000

My "have fun" MLB parlay for today on BetRivers:

Minnesota Twins/Cleveland Guardians F5 Under 4.5 Runs (-134)

I don't expect a repeat of last night with Gray & Bibee on the hill.

LA Dodgers F5 -0.5 over Miami Marlins (+100)

Kershaw pitching, Dodgers are the highest scoring team on the road this year.

Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100)

Just 3 for his last 19, this might be a good night to Goldschmidt vs. Michael Soroka and his 5.52 ERA.

Have Fun Parlay Rules:

3 legs, +600 or more odds, 5% of a normal unit

Odds: +600

YTD 5-24 (up 0.1635 units)

Baseball Parlay for September 4th

Mon, 04 Sep 2023 19:05:00 +0000

My "have fun" MLB parlay for today on BetRivers:

Mixing it up today.

Nelson Velazquez Over 1.5 Player Bases (-104)

Cleveland Guardians Over 3.5 Runs (-107)

Toronto Blue Jay/Oakland Athletics No Runs First Inning (-107)

Have Fun Parlay Rules:

3 legs, +600 or more odds, 5% of a normal unit

Odds: +634

YTD 4-24 (down 0.1535 units)

Baseball Parlay for September 2nd

Sat, 02 Sep 2023 20:34:00 +0000

My "have fun" MLB parlay for today on BetRivers:

Philadelphia Phillies RL -1.5 (+110)

Colin Rae returns to the show for the Brew Crew. 5.68 ERA at home, 11 runs allowed over his his 9 innings. Aaron Nola has pitched well in 3 of his last 4.

Texas Rangers RL -1.5 (+112)

Rematch from last week. I'm still not ready to trust Dallas Keuchel for the Twins even after 5 scoreless against the Rangers last week.

Seattle Mariners ML -143

Luis Castillo gets the call for the Mariners, 3.01 ERA, 1.00 WHIP on the season. 3 of his last 4 starts have resulted in 0 or 1 run. David Peterson goes for the Mets coming off his best start of the year. 5.23 ERA, 1.60 WHIP on the year.

Have Fun Parlay Rules:

3 legs, +600 or more odds, 5% of a normal unit

Odds: +657

YTD 4-22 (down 0.0535 units)

Baseball Parlay for September 1st

Fri, 01 Sep 2023 20:17:00 +0000

My "have fun" MLB parlay for today on BetRivers:

Minnesota Twins Over 3.5 Runs (-107)

I tend to fade pitchers in back-to-back starts against the same team. Max Scherzer tossed 7 innings against MN last weekend giving up 2 runs on just 4 hits. I think the Twins will do a little better tonight, if not the Rangers have the 4th worst bullpen ERA in the AL.

LA Angels Over 4.5 Runs (+108)

JP Sears gets the call for the A's, 5.49 ERA at home, 8.25 ERA over the last 30 days, 1 start this year vs. LAA giving up 6 over 4.1 innings. Added bonus: A's bullpen has a 5.35 ERA.

Tampa Bay Rays RL -1.5 (-104)

Tyler Glasnow goes for the Rays; he's given up 1 or fewer runs in 4 of his last 5 starts. Guardians are 29th in OPS vs. righties. Cal Quantrill returns for the Guardians, first start since July. 5.96 ERA during rehab, 6.45 ERA in the majors this year.

Have Fun Parlay Rules:

3 legs, +600 or more odds, 5% of a normal unit

Odds: +695

YTD 4-21 (down 0.0035 units)

Baseball Parlay for August 31st

Thu, 31 Aug 2023 16:52:00 +0000

My "have fun" MLB parlay for today on BetRivers:

Miami Marlins/Washington Nationals Over 8.5 Runs (-112)

I like to play the over in these situational spots with pitchers facing the same team in back-to-back starts. Joan Adon had an excellent start last time around going 6 innings - 0 runs allowed. Given his career 6.41 ERA, I'll pay to see if he can do that again.

Atlanta Braves RL -1.5 (+118)

After seeing the bad Lance Lynn most of the season, we are seeing the good Lance Lynn in August with a 2.03 ERA. Can we continue that against Atlanta? I'm not so sure. Braves scored 4 with a couple homers off Lynn in July. Spencer Strider will get the call for the Braves; I'm always winning to back him.

New York Yankees Under 4.5 Runs (-141)

Not thrilled with the price, hope this play doesn't bite me. Matt Manning has been really good in his last 3 starts for the Tigers, Yankees are 26th in OPS vs. righties. Fingers crossed.

Have Fun Parlay Rules:

3 legs, +600 or more odds, 5% of a normal unit

Odds: +608

YTD 4-20 (up 0.0465 units)

Baseball Parlay for August 31st

Thu, 31 Aug 2023 16:52:00 +0000

My "have fun" MLB parlay for today on BetRivers:

Miami Marlins/Washington Nationals Over 8.5 Runs (-112)

Atlanta Braves RL -1.5 (+118)

New York Yankees Under 4.5 Runs (-141)

Not thrilled with the price, hope this play doesn't bite me. Matt Manning has been really good in his last 3 starts for the Tigers, Yankees are 26th in OPS vs. righties. Fingers crossed.

Have Fun Parlay Rules:

3 legs, +600 or more odds, 5% of a normal unit

Odds: +608

YTD 4-20 (up 0.0465 units)

Baseball Parlay for August 30th

Wed, 30 Aug 2023 14:37:00 +0000

My "have fun" afternoon MLB parlay for today on BetRivers:

Baltimore Orioles ML -180

Dylan Cease and Desist will toe the rubber for the White Sox, 6.13 ERA since the ASB, 5.18 ERA on the road, 1 start vs. Baltimore giving up 4 over 6 innings. Kyle Gibson goes for Baltimore, fingers crossed.

Philadelphia Phillies ML -190

Better prices are available in the market but I'm going to run with what I have. Reid Detmers gets the call for the Angels, 5.03 ERA over the last 30 days, 5.69 ERA on the road, 6.82 ERA post ASB. Cristopher Sanchez goes for the Phillies, 3.33 ERA on the season.

Seattle Mariners F3 RL -1.5 (+195)

To get +600 with a couple heavy chalk on top, I needed a strong plus $ play and this is the one for me. Zach Neal goes for the A's; 17 innings pitched this year in the show with a 6.88 ERA. 6.87 ERA in AAA last year, 5.40 ERA in AAA this year. Bryce Miller goes for the Mariners, 12 innings pitched - 1 run allowed vs. the A's this year. I'm counting on an early crooked number from Seattle to cash.

Have Fun Parlay Rules:

3 legs, +600 or more odds, 5% of a normal unit

Odds: +604

YTD 4-19 (up 0.0965 units)

Baseball Parlay for August 29th

Tue, 29 Aug 2023 18:39:00 +0000

My "have fun" MLB parlay for today on BetRivers:

Finally having fun after hitting 2 of my last 3.

Cincinnati Reds Over 3.5 Runs (-103)

Alex Cobb gets the call for the Giants. Cobb has struggled in August, 0-2 record, 6.84 ERA, .311 BA against. 1 start vs. the Reds this year, 4.1 innings - 5 runs allowed. Reds are 8th best in runs scored on the road.

Miami Marlins Lead After 5 Innings 3-Way (+100)

Sandy Alcantara is sucking me back in with a 3.31 ERA in June, 3.03 ERA in July. Last 3 starts at home: 9 innings - 1 run vs. Yankees, 8 innings - 0 runs vs. Phillies, 6.2 innings - 1 runs vs. Phillies. Aaron Civale has given up 2 or more runs in 3 of his 4 starts since joining the Rays.

Philadelphia Phillies Lead After 5 Innings 3-Way (-113)

Tyler Anderson for the Angels, 6.15 ERA at night, 5.63 ERA on the road, 5.84 ERA over the last 30 days. Phillies average over 5 runs per game at home. I wanted to play the Phillies Over 4.5 runs but it fell short of my required +600. Michael Lorenzen goes for the Phillies, after 2 good starts with the Phillies he has given up 11 runs over the last 2 vs. San Francisco & Washington.

Have Fun Parlay Rules:

3 legs, +600 or more odds, 5% of a normal unit

Odds: +648

YTD 4-18 (up 0.1465 units)

Baseball Parlay for August 28th

Mon, 28 Aug 2023 19:56:00 +0000

My "have fun" MLB parlay for today on BetRivers:

San Diego Padres RL -1.5 (-125)

Adam Wainwright goes for the Cardinals, 8.61 ERA on the season, 12.19 ERA over the last 30 days, 5 straight starts giving up 3 or more runs. Blake Snell has a 2.47 ERA on the road, had a sub-1 ERA in June & July. Love the pitching edge tonight.

Baltimore Orioles RL -1.5 (-112)

Grayson Rodriguez has a 3.28 ERA over the last 30 days for the O's, Michael Kopech has a 7.15 ERA over the last 30 days, 5.60 ERA on the road, and a 6.18 ERA at night for the White Sox.

Toronto Blue Jays F5 Innings -1.5 (+118)

Needed a plus $ play to get me to my required +600 for the day. Kevin Gausman can be really good when on, 11 starts this year giving up 0 or 1 run for the Blue Jays. I'll need that type of start to have a chance to cash.

Have Fun Parlay Rules:

3 legs, +600 or more odds, 5% of a normal unit

Odds: +646

YTD 3-18 (down 0.1765 units)

Baseball Parlay for August 27th

Sun, 27 Aug 2023 15:20:00 +0000

My "have fun" MLB parlay for today on BetRivers:

Texas Rangers RL -1.5 (+130)

Bailey Ober goes the Twinkies, 6.00 ERA with a 1.71 WHIP over his last 5 starts. Jordan Montgomery is on the bump for the Rangers, 2.25 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP over his last starts. Rangers are a good crooked number team, I'll backing them again.

Chicago Cubs ML (-125)

Javier Assad gets the call for the Cubbies, 2.28 ERA, 1.05 WHIP over the last 30 days. Bailey Falter goes for the Pirates, 1.40 WHIP, .276 BA against over the last 30 days. Home, day, and opponent splits are unfavorable for Falter.

San Diego Padres ML (-117)

Michael Wacha has had back to back good starts for the Padres since returning including 5 shutout innings against Baltimore. Adrian Houser has a 5.33 ERA, 1.34 WHIP over his last 5 starts. Not a fan of betting into the streak, Brew Crew have won 7 straight....that ends today.

Have Fun Parlay Rules:

3 legs, +600 or more odds, 5% of a normal unit

Odds: +670

YTD 3-17 (down 0.1265 units)

Baseball Parlay for August 26th

Sat, 26 Aug 2023 17:18:00 +0000

My "have fun" MLB parlay for today on BetRivers:

Texas Rangers ML (-120)

Rangers cost me the third leg last night. I'm flirting with the definition of insanity by continuing to back them. Joe Ryan returns from the shelf for the Twinkies, Scherzer has been good since the trade, so I think the bleeding finally stops tonight.

Atlanta Braves RL -1.5 (-109)

Max Fried is on the bump for the Braves. Braves can hit.

Houston Astros/Detroit Tigers First 5 Over 4.5 Runs (+100)

Yes, I'm betting an over with Eduardo Rodriguez on the mound. It takes 2 to keep a game under.

Have Fun Parlay Rules:

3 legs, +600 or more odds, 5% of a normal unit

Odds: +607 YTD

2-17 (down 0.43 units) - betting parlays is far from fun so far for me

Week 0 College Football Pick: Florida International @ La Tech

Sat, 26 Aug 2023 15:47:00 +0000

Last year, FIU won this battle in 2OT as a 6-point dog winning 42-34. Louisiana Tech finished 3-9 last year, return just 4 starters on a D that allowed 6.1 yards per carry. Bulldogs should be much better offensively, they add Hank Bachmeier at QB from Boise State, and my guy Phil Steele is calling for the Bulldogs to average 32.8 points per game. FIU finished 4-8 last year, have only 12 starters back but the offensive is expected to be much better than the group that averaged only 18.7 points per game a year ago. Defensively, they gave up 37.3 PPG last year. That's good news for me......

My Pick: Florida International/La Tech Over 57

Week 0 College Football Pick: Hawaii @ Vanderbilt

Sat, 26 Aug 2023 15:42:00 +0000

Revenge factor? Not sure if that applies when you get crushed 63-10. That's what Vandy did to Hawaii last year in the opener. Vandy has not done well under Clark Lea as a double-digit favorite, 0-3. Failed to cover 19 vs. Elon, failed to cover 21 vs. East Tennessee State, and failed to cover 14 vs. UConn. Commodores have some injuries on D, but Hawaii is just bad ranked 130th by Phil Steele. Vandy is bigger, faster, and stronger. Rainbow Warriors went 3-10 last year and lost 4 starters on the OL. Might take a bit longer for Timmy Chang to get the Run & Shoot going again at Hawaii.

My Pick: Vanderbilt -17.5

Week 0 College Football Pick: Ohio @ San Diego State

Sat, 26 Aug 2023 15:38:00 +0000

After a 12-2 season in 2021, San Diego State was forced to make an OC and QB change mid-year, things did improve but they still managed only 21.5 PPG. QB tossed 5 INT's in the final 2 games, and no Aztek rushed for more than 390 yards on the season. Crazy bad! Ohio won 10 games for the first time since 2011, D gave up 561 yards per game over the first 6 weeks....then managed to keep the final 8 opponents under 390 yards. Ohio returns 9 starters on offense including the MAC player of the year at QB and averaged 31.8 PPG. Both teams played Toledo last year, San Diego State won 17-14, Ohio lost 17-7. Low scoring game might be in the cards but.....

My Pick: Ohio +3

Week 0 College Football Pick: UMass @ New Mexico State

Fri, 25 Aug 2023 23:05:00 +0000

Game of the day? Probably not. UMass went 1-11 last year, lost to New Mexico State 23-13 as a 1-point dog, and averaged just 12.5 points per game on the season. In summary: Not a good football team. On the flip side, we have New Mexico State. Let's see just how bad they are been since 2005 prior to Jerry Kill's arrival last year: 46-158. Ouch! Aggies started 0-4 in 2022 but Coach Kill coached them up and finished 7-6 winning the Quick Lane Bowl. Coach Kill is OK playing ugly and winning ugly. Scores last year included: 23-12, 20-13, 21-7, 21-7, 23-13, and 24-19. Bad team vs. coach willing to win ugly......

My Pick: New Mexico State/UMass 1H Under 22.5 (-110)

Week 0 College Football Pick: UTEP @ Jacksonville State

Fri, 25 Aug 2023 22:56:00 +0000

Debut FBS game for the Jacksonville State Gamecocks! This should be a fun one to watch, few teams are a wildcard this year like Jacksonville State. Gamecocks went 9-2 last year for former West Virginia/Michigan/Arizona HC Rich Rodriguez but did get crushed @ FBS Tulsa 54-17. Phil Steele power ratings have this team winning as few as 2 games to as many as 10 this year. UTEP on the other hand is coming off a disappointing 5-7 season other than the upset over Boise State, have 15 starters back this season and are projected to finish near the top in Conference USA. Motivation/excitement edge to Jacksonville State early, better O-Line/D-Line edge to UTEP late.

My Pick: UTEP -1 (-110)

Week 0 College Football Pick: Navy vs. Notre Dame (Dublin)

Fri, 25 Aug 2023 22:20:00 +0000

New year, new excitement for the Fighting Irish. It all starts at quarterback for Notre Dame as Sam Hartman will run the show this year. The Wake Forest transfer has 45 starts under his belt, he has the MOST 300 yard passing games in ACC history, and 110 career TD passes. Huge get for the Fighting Irish in the portal. The defense has 8 starters returning and should be a Top 10 D in the country. Last season the Irish finished 9-4 but it didn't feel good. Started 0-2, lost to Marshall at home as a 20-point favorite, lost to Stanford as a 16-point favorite, beat this Navy team by only 3 as a 16-point favorite. After last season, no chance that Notre Dame will overlook this game. No one in South Bend wants a repeat of last season, run it up and leave no doubt time for the Fighting Irish. Navy went 4-8 last year, have 17 starters back with a new head coach. Debut coaches went 4-8 ATS last year as an underdog.

My Pick: Notre Dame -20.5

August 25th Baseball Parlay

Fri, 25 Aug 2023 20:00:00 +0000

My "have fun" MLB parlay for today on BetRivers:

New York Yankees/Tampa Bay Rays Over 7 (-121)

No team in baseball has scored more runs over the last 15 days than the Tampa Bay Rays. Zach Eflin has a 4.50 ERA over the last 30 days for the Rays. 7 is a low number given those stats.

Brandon Woodruff Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-190)

4th start back for Woodruff off injury, good career K splits at home, good career numbers vs. San Diego hitters. I almost played this one plus $ at 6.5 but elected to run with the 5.5.

Texas Rangers RL -1.5 (+155)

Rangers have lost 7 straight after losing 5-2 last night. Dane Dunning and his 2.98 ERA will attempt to stop the bleeding. Rangers are the 2nd highest scoring team in baseball, only 9 of 72 wins have been by 1 run. At +155, I'm giving it a shot.

Have Fun Parlay Rules:

3 legs, +600 or more odds, 5% of a normal unit

Odds: +614

YTD 2-16 (down 0.38 units)

August 25th Baseball First 5 Team Total Pick

Fri, 25 Aug 2023 07:00:00 +0000

For Friday, I'm taking the Chicago Cubs Over 2.5 runs in the First 5 innings at +124 on DraftKings.

#1 Chicago Cubs are the 5th highest scoring team in baseball

#2 Chicago Cubs are the highest scoring team in baseball since the All-Star Break. Yes, they have scored more runs than the Atlanta Braves. 231-230.

#3 Mitch Keller is on the bump for the Pirates, tremendous prior to the All-Star Break....not so much after the break. 1-4 record, 6.98 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, and BA of .333. Ouch!

That's enough for me to grab the plus money. Let's get some runs.

August 23rd Baseball Parlay

Wed, 23 Aug 2023 15:15:00 +0000

My "have fun" afternoon MLB parlay for today on BetRivers:

LA Angels ML (-175) - GM1 of DH

Shohei Ohtani will toe the rubber for the Angels, Trout is back in the lineup, and Andrew Abbott has a 4.91 ERA over the last 30 days for the Reds. Nice edge today for the Angels.

Corbin Burnes Over 18.5 Outs Recorded (+133)

Twins batters are a career 11 for 62 off Burnes, .177 BA. Last 30 days hitters have a .174 BA vs. Corbin. Ballpark Pal gives his top pitches vs. the Twins an A+, A+, and A grade. Only cashed this number in 3 of his last 12 starts but today should be a good day.

Kansas City RL -1.5 (+120)

Cole Ragans has been solid for the Royals since the trade, 2.66 ERA over the last 30 days. Adrian Martinez goes for the A's, 6.23 ERA over the last 30 days. Royals have the better sticks, advantage KC.

Have Fun Parlay Rules:

3 legs, +600 or more odds, 5% of a normal unit

Odds: +710

YTD 2-15 (down 0.33 units) - I never said that I was good at parlays, I would be up on straight bets so far.

August 22nd Baseball Parlay

Tue, 22 Aug 2023 19:20:00 +0000

My "have fun" parlay for today on BetRivers:

First 5 Total: Baltimore Orioles/Toronto Blue Jays Over 4.5 Runs (+102)

Both Yusei Kikuchi and Grayson Rodriguez have been red hot in recent months, but I like the fact that both teams got to see these guys earlier this month. The Jays got 3 of Rodriguez in that start, O's got 1 off Kikuchi. I need 5 tonight; I think that I can get it.

Atlanta Braves RL -1.5 (-109)

Home team RL bet, not my favorite. Braves are an exception to most rules since they lead the league in scoring. Tylor Megill goes for the Mets tonight with his juicy 5.53 ERA, 1.70 WHIP. Braves roughed him up for 6 runs over 5.1 earlier this month. He has an 8.20 ERA on road, 6.55 ERA vs. Atlanta. Bryce Elder is on the bump for Braves, excellent night splits with a 2.50 ERA, home ERA of 3.12. In the Braves I trust.

Bobby Miller Over 16.5 Outs Recorded (-110)

Miller has lasted 6 innings in 3 of his last 5 starts for Dodgers, Cleveland ranks 29th in OPS over the last 30 days which should help the pitch count. BallPark Pal gives Miller's top 3 pitches an A+ in tonight's matchup and his projecting 5.7 innings. That's enough for me to go over.

Have Fun Parlay Rules:

3 legs, +600 or more odds, 5% of a normal unit

Odds: +641

YTD 2-14 (down 0.28 units) - I would like to win again soon.

Week 0 College Football Pick: San Jose State @ USC

Mon, 21 Aug 2023 17:14:00 +0000

Game Preview: San Jose State @ USC

USC is a legit Top 10 team, National Title contender. USC has won the last 2 meetings against San Jose State by a combined score of 86-10 and are currently favored by 30.5 points in this one. USC has Nevada on deck, no potential look ahead spot for the Trojans. I struggle with spreads like this, we know the clear talent edge is on the USC side so to me the bigger factor is how a coach like Lincoln Riley tends to manage games like this.

Let's review lines of 21+ for Riley over the last 5 years:

2022 vs. Rice (-32), won ATS 66-14

2022 vs. Arizona State (-25), lost ATS 42-25

2022 vs. California (-21), lost ATS 41-35

2022 vs. Colorado (-34), won ATS 55-17

2021 vs. Tulane (-32), lost ATS 40-35

2021 vs. Western Carolina (-50), won ATS 76-0

2021 @ Kansas (-38), lost ATS 35-23

2020 vs. Missouri State (-42), won ATS 48-0

2020 vs. Kansas State (-27), lost ATS and SU 38-35

2020 vs. Kansas (-38), won ATS 62-9

2020 vs. Baylor (-21), lost ATS 27-14

2019 vs. Houston (-23), lost ATS 49-31

2019 vs. South Dakota (-45), won ATS 70-14

2019 @ UCLA (-23), won ATS 48-14

2019 vs. Texas Tech (-27), won ATS 55-16

2019 @ Kansas (-33), lost ATS 45-20

2019 vs. West Virginia (-32), won ATS 52-14

2019 @ Kansas State (-23), lost ATS and SU 48-41

2018 vs. UCLA (-29), lost ATS 49-21

2018 vs. Army (-30), lost ATS 28-21

2018 vs. Baylor (-22), won ATS 66-33

2018 vs. Kansas State (-24), won ATS 51-14

2018 vs. Oklahoma State (-21), lost ATS 48-47

2018 vs. Kansas (-34), lost ATS 55-40

Summary:

Riley ATS over the L5 years when favored by 21 or more: 11-13 (45.8%)

Not enough of an edge for me so let's dig deeper.

Game total is 64. How about this? 20 of those 24 games have gone over this total of 64 including the last 6. San Jose State has 9 starters back on offense. This is the angle I was looking for.

My Pick: San Jose State @ USC Over 64 (-110)

College Football Betting Preview

Mon, 21 Aug 2023 05:44:00 +0000

Can we find an angle/trend with the 24 new college football coaches this year? Maybe

Last year debut coaches went 10-5 ATS as the favorite.

Covered: Miami (FL) -49, Duke -9, Oklahoma -31, TCU -14, Texas Tech -38, USC -32, Washington -23, SMU -10, Nevada -8, Georgia Southern -38

Failed to cover: LSU -3, Virginia Tech -6, Virginia -21, Akron -17, FIU -11

Last year debut coaches went 4-8 ATS as the underdog.

Covered: Florida +2, UCONN +26, Troy +21, Jacksonville State +6

Failed to cover: Georgia Tech +24, Oregon +17, Temple +9, UMASS +28, Colorado State +31, Hawaii +9, La Tech +20, New Mexico State +8

Week 0: Brian Newberry debuts @ Navy facing Notre Dame in Ireland as a 20.5 point underdog

I'll take anything over a 52.4% winning percentage in the sports betting business. 66.7% trends work for me.

I expect to be laying the 20.5 with Notre Dame when I lock in my card this week.

August 21st Baseball Parlay

Sun, 20 Aug 2023 23:02:00 +0000

My "have fun" parlay for today on BetRivers:

Houston Astros ML (-139)

Cristian Javier has struggled after a strong April & May but still has a 3.19 ERA at home and has a career 3.46 ERA. Jose Altuve has good numbers vs. James Paxton, 2 homers, .324 BA. I think the Astros end the home skid tonight.

Seattle Mariners RL -1.5 (-115)

Love the pitching matchup tonight with Luis Castillo on the bump for the M's vs. Touki Toussaint for the White Sox.

Texas Rangers RL First 5 -1.5 (+170)

Let's get a little aggressive. Jordan Montgomery had his worst start of the year vs. the D-Backs back in April giving up 7 over 4 innings. Last 3 months he has excellent splits. Slade Cecconi will be making his 4th big league appearance for the D-Backs, last out 2 runs over 4 @ Colorado. Cecconi had a 6.38 ERA over 20 starts this year in AAA. I'm counting on an early crooked number from the Rangers.

Have Fun Parlay Rules:

3 legs, +600 or more odds, 5% of a normal unit

Odds: +768

YTD 2-13 (down 0.23 units)